Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We have a lot of games today that are split almost down the middle for our two slates. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a much wider range of pitching options today, from high-dollar studs to gas-cans that are ready to implode on any given pitch. There are quite a few pitchers with low strikeout rates, as well as several with bad carnage ratings, so this looks like a day that ought to be full of carnage on the base path. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early slates
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with the Diamondbacks and Marlins, with Bumgarner and Hernandez on the hill. We only have a 7.5 total (which I guess shouldn’t be too surprising), but I do think both sides will have some decent opportunities here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho, Walker/Peralta
GPP note – Hernandez is allowing plenty of power to both sides (more to lefties), so taking some pieces here is a viable option.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler
GPP note – Bumgarner has been holding steady but he’s not racking up a ton of strikeouts. That could lead to some opportunities here, so running a few bats isn’t the worst thing you could do.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Next up is an even lower total; Vegas gives this game a 7 between the Braves and Mets. Anderson and Megill will get the nod, both of which could very well hold down the other’s offense for a large chunk of the game. Although, the weather doesn’t look too promising as of right now, so we’ll see how that develops.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley
GPP note – Pretty tough matchup here, Megill hasn’t really shown any weaknesses to exploit. You can always run a power bat or two in hopes they get a pitch to hit, but I’d avoid big stacks.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil/Lindor/Alonso
GPP note – Anderson is allowing a fair amount of power to both sides, so don’t be afraid to run righties here to go with any lefties you may roll out.
San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
We move on to the Padres and Guardians, with Clevinger and Plesac to get the start. This will (should?) be Clevinger’s first game back, so keep an eye on him to see how he’s looking. Hopefully we’ll see him in action this time!
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Hosmer, Profar
GPP note – Good spot for both sides of the plate here, the usual guys are in play. Plesac’s strikeouts are pretty low, so you can run big stacks here with some of the lesser-known bats, too.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – It’ll be Clevinger’s first game back, so it’s not a terrible idea to stack here and hope he has a rough time. Of course, you could always hedge as well, which wouldn’t be a bad idea since a few of these guys have above-average strikeout rates.
St Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
Next up we get Wainwright and the Cardinals taking on Bubic and my Royals, and I suspect we’ll get the reverse of what we saw yesterday. That being, the Cardinals will get their share of runs and KC will fall a bit flat. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I’ve seen this one far too many times.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Edman/O’Neil
GPP note – This is a good spot for these guys to get revenge after yesterday’s semi-blowout loss, and I expect them to make some noise here. Goldy probably hits another dinger.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Dozier
GPP note – These bats don’t tend to stay hot for more than a game at a time, so I suspect they’ll have a pretty slow game against Wainwright. Maybe a power bat or two, but it’s hard for me to recommend much else.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
Moving on to the next game, we get Wilson and the Pirates taking on Pineda and the Tigers. On paper this game looks good for both offenses, but we know how these two can be, so who knows if they’ll take advantage of it or not.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Vogelbach
GPP note – Good power to both sides, but mainly to the lefties. Low strikeout rate for Pineda as well, which should help them a lot as they have a lot of bats that have strikeout issues.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Basically the same as above. Yep, word for word, in fact. We’ll see if either offense can take advantage of their favorable matchup.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Up next are the Mariners and Astros, and really, I think Verlander and the catcher would probably be enough to win this one. This looks to be very lopsided, so good luck with any contrarian stacks, should you bother to run any.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Crawford/France
GPP note – Um…yikes. Contrarian stacks only.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Tucker, Bregman/Altuve
GPP note – Good spot here for most of the entire lineup, but especially for the lefties. Any sort of stack works here, from mini to big.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
We get a good looking pitcher’s matchup next, with Kluber and the Rays taking on Montas and Oakland. I really hope both pitchers are on their A game and we get a nice 7+ inning duel. I know, you guys like big home runs and stuff. Me, I like to see the strikeouts!
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco
GPP note – Not a terrific matchup against Montas, but if you’re going to attack him, do it with the lefties (he allows above-average ISO to them, but hardly anything to righties).
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp/Neuse
GPP note – Kluber seems to be getting into a groove, so I’d be careful here. These bats like to K, and I fear they may do that a lot today.
Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll round out the early games with the Rangers and Phillies, who will be starting Perez and Wheeler. At first glance I’m not sure where I want to lean, but overall I don’t know that this is the game I have marked as the one to go off the rails. I think we’ll see a fairly calm one with a dinger or two, but not much else (I say that now, but then they’ll both score 20).
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Garcia
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go here, though it’s not a matchup where I think big stacks will really pay off.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber, Castellanos/Realmuto/Hoskins
GPP note – Perez has been tough, but these guys are hitting pretty well. Perez doesn’t have a dominating strikeout rate by any means, but these guys can rack them up, so it might not be a terrible idea to hedge here.
Main slate
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
We switch over to the main slate and that begins with the Twins and Orioles facing off at Camden Yards. Bundy and Bradish will lead the way, and well, I’m pretty sure this one will be a repeat of yesterday. Hopefully the Orioles will join the fun this time, and put some hits together to finally give the slate an upset.
Twins 5 star plays – Buxton
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler
GPP note – Good spot for some good bats to do some good damage, so I think we’ll see more of the same as yesterday. Pretty much the entire lineup is in play, but maybe Kepler will join the fun this time?
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays
GPP note – They didn’t do much scoring but they did get their fair share of hits yesterday, so maybe they can put them together a little better today. Bundy allows some power to both sides, so don’t be afraid to try your luck here.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Cortes and the Yankees take on Kikuchi and the Blue Jays next, and this one looks to be another one where one side appears to be in a much better spot than the other. That goes for both Cortes and his teammates, as they’ll all have a good chance to put up some crooked numbers.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Donaldson/Stanton
GPP note – They keep winning and hitting homers, and Kikuchi probably isn’t going to slow them down any. I think we all expect to see some fireworks here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – They’re going to need to do some scoring to keep pace, but unfortunately for them, Cortes has only allowed 3 runs in 4 starts. It doesn’t look terrific for this offense, but you could always try some stacks here just in case they do find a way to get to him.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Up next are a couple of lower-dollar pitchers, Detmers and Whitlock, to start for the Angels and Red Sox. I see this one going to Boston, but maybe if the bullpen screws it up, the Angels will get to put some of those big bats to good use.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
GPP note – Whitlock has been solid and has been flirting with a 5-inning performance, so it’s possible we might see him slow these bats down for longer than expected. For that reason I don’t know that I’d default to large stacks here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Devers, Story
GPP note – Good spot for the righties, and there are plenty of potent ones to choose from. They’ll probably do most of the scoring in this one, so I would stack accordingly.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Gutierrez and the Reds will face Peralta and the Brewers next, and this is another one where I think it’s easy to point at one team here and mostly ignore the other. I’d be surprised if the Reds make much noise at all, other than a soft whimper (which will probably be the same noise anybody who stacks them will make).
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Pham
GPP note – Pretty tough matchup for a pretty underwhelming offense, I don’t know that I’d want much more here than a sprinkle or two. Peralta does have some reverse splits, so if you want a bat, maybe take a righty.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Tellez
GPP note – Gutierrez has had his struggles and has allowed plenty of hits/runs, and these guys will probably get theirs too. Hand doesn’t really matter here, as he allows plenty power and contact to both sides of the plate. Stack away!
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
We head on over to our Chicago game next, with Giolito and the White Sox taking on Hendricks and the Cubs. It’s the visitor’s turn this time, as the White Sox look to be in a pretty good spot to take another win. I think it’ll be a repeat of yesterday for the most part, but perhaps with a little more scoring from one side.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson/Robert/Abreu
GPP note – They (should?) get Hendricks this game, which is good news. He’s allowing plenty to both sides of the plate and these guys will be in the mood to score some more runs. Good option from small to bigger stacks.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki
GPP note – Pretty sour matchup for these guys. I don’t think they’ll get more much than they did yesterday, so be careful here.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Up next is everybody’s favorite chalk-fest, with Corbin and the Nationals taking on Gomber and the Rockies at Coors Field. There’s not much more to say here, sometimes the venue just does all the talking for me.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Nothing too surprising here. It’s a decent matchup at Coors, and they’ll probably hit another dinger or two with some other hits along the way.
Rockies 5 star plays – Cron
Rockies 4 star plays – Joe, McMahon/Blackmon
GPP note – Much the same as above. It’ll be the righties with the “more favorable” matchup today, so expect to see them have more ownership.
San Francisco Giants a Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Giants and Dodgers, with Wood and Gonsolin getting the start. I see this one unfolding much like yesterday’s game; not a ton of scoring but just enough to have a couple or few decent pieces for DFS purposes, but I don’t know that there’s an extraordinarily high ceiling here.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson/Yastrzemski
GPP note – Pretty basic matchup here, I don’t think these guys will go bonkers, but some small/medium exposure would be fine.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Turner, Freeman
GPP note – Similar idea to above, though I think these guys get the slightly better matchup. Again though, I don’t know that we see an outbreak of runs or anything, but a few bats could easily have a decent night.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
