Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a lot of strong pitching options today…maybe too many, in fact. Only three have carnage ratings over a 5 (which is considered a very average offense facing a very average pitcher), and nearly a third of the pitchers have a KSCORE north of that 500 mark. I don’t want to say the entire pool is in play, but eh, an argument could be made for a lot of them. Days like today are ones where it’s really important to narrow down your research, but hey, if you don’t have the time, that’s what we’re here for! Head on over to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early slates
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
We’ll kick things off with the first game of a double-header between the Braves and Mets. They’ll have Morton and Carrasco starting this one, both of which are coming off a bad outing. If their struggles continue, we could see some big scores, as both teams have some potent bats.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley, d’Arnaud
GPP note – Tough matchup against Carrasco, but he does at least give up his fair share to lefties. Probably best to attack him with traditional splits bats.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Pretty good spot for the lefties, so pretty much all of them will be in play. Morton has been strict to righties, so be careful there.
San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have the return of Clevinger – he and the Padres will face Plesac and the Guardians. It’s hard to know exactly where a pitcher will be when they make their first start after the games have already been rolling, so it might not be a bad idea to hedge a little here. As for the Padres, they’ll get a decent matchup, so Cleveland will have their work cut out for them.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Profar
GPP note – Good spot for either side of the plate, Plesac is allowing around .200 ISO to both hands, and several of these guys can hit for some pop.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gimenez
GPP note – It’ll kind of depend on where Clevinger is or how long he lasts, but it’s never a bad idea to attack a pitcher on their first game back, in case they still have some dust to shake off.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
We move on to our next matchup between the Diamondbacks and Marlins, with Castellanos and Rogers on the mound. I think it’s business as usual for both teams here; it’s hard to be in love with the Diamondbacks, and the Marlins could be hit-or-miss depending on how their opponent pitches. Lucky for them, they get an unreliable one, so maybe this’ll be a game for them.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker/Hummel
GPP note – As usual, not a ton to love here, and Rogers has been tougher than his salary would indicate. He’s giving up a modest .141 ISO to righties but that’s about all I can say for these guys.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Soler/Rojas
GPP note – Castellanos has been very up and down, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to attack him with big stacks in case he has another rough outing and the Marlins can make a big run on him. Wendle isn’t a bad option, either.
Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll round out the early games with the Rangers and Phillies, who will start Otto and Suarez. Overall the offenses are both in good spots here, as there are favorable numbers all around for most of the bats here. I think I like the home team just a tick more, but we’ll see how things unfold.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien/Garver
GPP note – Typical traditional splits are in favor against Suarez – he’s not allowing much at all to lefties but a decent .383 wOBA / .181 ISO to righties.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber
GPP note – The typical bats are in play here, but Otto is allowing more power to righties right now, so don’t be afraid to run some of the power righties here to pivot from the chalkier lefties.
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Main slate
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
We move on to our Camden Yards game, and it’s just so weird to see a 7 total here. Though with how Baltimore has been, I guess I can’t be too surprised, but maybe one of these games we’ll see them put this field to use? This game feels like one of those that will either end 1-to-nothing or with double-digits somewhere.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Kepler
GPP note – A decent amount of power given up to both sides of the plate by Zimmermann should go well with these guys being at Camden Yards.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Ryan has been stingy and I suspect that continues here, though a few of these guys have strong xwOBA in this RvR matchup. That might lead to a surprise dinger or two, so do at least give these guys a look.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up are the Yankees and Blue Jays, with Taillon and Manoah squaring off. Even with two good pitcher we have an 8 total, so that tells me that either pitcher or offense could go off here. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to try and get exposure to all corners of this one.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Rizzo, Donaldson/Gallo
GPP note – A tough matchup for these guys, but they are swinging the bat well. This is a classic hedge spot for GPP, so try to get exposure to both sides of it.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Gurriel/Chapman
GPP note – Much the same as above but Taillon has some big reverse splits going on. There are some potent righties here, so don’t be afraid to call on them.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
We get the Pirates and Tigers next, with Wilson and Pineda leading the way. We have the same total here – another 8 – but with much weaker pitching. Both offenses are a bit…meh…but I can’t say it’s not a spot where they could run up the score a bit.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Vogelbach
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting righties very well, but Pineda is giving up a good chunk of power to both sides and isn’t striking many out, so they could be a decent surprise stack.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Exact same as above. It’s not sexy to stack these guys, but both teams get a good pitching matchup, so perhaps they could do something with it?
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Syndergaard and the Angels visit Wacha and the Red Sox next, this one with an 8.5 total. I personally think they’ll hit the under here, but we’ll see how that goes. It’ll be interesting to see how the total moves throughout the day.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani
GPP note – Wacha is allowing power to both sides, but more to righties, so don’t be afraid to go back to these guys after yesterday’s dud.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Devers, Martinez/Bogaerts
GPP note – Syndergaard’s strikeouts are on the rise, so be careful here as he could be on the verge of a big game any start now.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
We get some Chicago on Chicago action up next, with Kopech and the White Sox facing Smyly and the Cubs. It’s hard for me to not side with the visitors here, though I don’t think I’ll be alone.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson/Abreu/Robert
GPP note – Smyly is giving up plenty to righties, and wouldn’t you know it, but this is loaded with them who would just love to smash the ball all over Wrigley Field. Stacks of any size are in play here.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki
GPP note – Not a very good matchup overall, but you could still sprinkle around the high ceiling guys like Suzuki and Contreras.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we get the Reds and Brewers, with Mahle and Woodruff on the hill. We have a 7 total here, which I guess isn’t all that surprising. This is another game that I think goes the under, which would be a shame on a Coors slate.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Pham
GPP note – Certainly not a good matchup for these guys, but Woodruff does allow power to both sides, so maybe one or two of them could get a decent hit of sorts? You’ll have them all to yourself at least.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames/Tellez
GPP note – The usual bats are in play here, though I get the feeling small/medium sized pairings would be better than full stacks. Just got that feeling…
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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
We head down south for our next matchup between the Mariners and Astros, with Flexen and Javier on the mound. I can’t really think of any reason to give a nod the Seattle here, unless the randomness of baseball gets in the way. Both sides of the Astros look pretty good from where I’m sitting.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – France/Crawford
GPP note – A little power to the righties, but otherwise not a whole lot given up by a pitcher who is looking better than his salary would indicate. Might be a quiet night for these bats.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Bregman/Altuve
GPP note – Flexen is giving up some big reverse splits numbers, so consider attacking him with some righties.
St Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
Next up is our I-70 game between the Cardinals and my Royals. We’ll get Hudson and Keller for this one, and this is another game where I think we’ll get the under. Both pitchers have been fairly solid and I think they’ll be able to navigate a good chunk of the game without much damage. I don’t know that they have big game upside though, so it might just be a dud for us all the way around.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Edman
GPP note – Goldschmidt seems to always be in play, but otherwise I don’t know that we’ll get a ton of action here
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Dozier
GPP note – It feels like more of the same here. Maybe a power bat could be useful, but otherwise I just don’t think we’ll get a whole lot out of this one.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
We head to our chalky Coors game next, with Fedde and the Nationals being hosted by Marquez and the Rockies. Nothing surprising here; we’ll get a nice fat total with a bunch of ownership. Thankfully it’s a big enough slate that we can find some other ways to be a little creative.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell/Soto
GPP note – I’d say don’t be afraid to attack Marquez here, but you were going to stack Coors anyway. I’ll just say don’t be afraid to go RvR, because he’s giving up more power to them than righties.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon, Cron/Joe/Grichuk
GPP note – Same ol’ thing here. It’s an RHP at Coors who gives up more power to lefties, so they will be popular as always. Try some righties and/or wrap-around stacks to try and be a little different.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Next up are the Rays and Athletics, with Yarbrough (I think?) and Blackburn as our starters. Another game that I think we see the under, I hope I’m wrong on some of these so we have some places to go to pivot away from the previous game. I guess we’ll see!
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco
GPP note – Not so great of a matchup against Blackburn, but maybe a one-off or mini-stack could be useful? I don’t think big stacks are the play here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Murphy
GPP note – Bullpen games aren’t usually very fun and these guys aren’t exactly scorching the earth, so probably same as above here. Bethancourt doesn’t seem like a bad punt option.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we wrap up the day with the tried and true rivalry between the Giants and Dodgers. Rodon and Urias will face off here, and I can’t wait to see how this matchup plays out. Rodon is having a strong start to the year, and if he can silence these expensive LAD bats, he’ll have bragging rights over most of the MLB. I think Urias will be able to skate by in his matchup, so we might see yet another under here.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Slater/Crawford
GPP note – It’s a shame these guys aren’t hitting lefties all that well, because Urias is allowing some power to both sides of the plate. Wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least try the two above, as they’re hitting them fine.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Betts, Taylor (a little BvP)
GPP note – Rodon is just mowing everybody down and could surely put this offense on halt for the night. Seems like a good place to hedge, if you think they can get to him.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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