Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a nice sized main slate tonight, with a handful of early games to satisfy your DFS cravings all day long. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice wide range of options today, including some studs facing weaker offenses (like Javier), some brand-name pitchers facing tough offenses (like Syndergaard and Corbin), and even a pitcher making his 2022 debut at Coors (what could possibly go wrong?). There are some other interesting spots in between, both good and bad for the pitching, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most (and least) interested in.
Early slates
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the Twins and Tigers, who will start Smeltzer and Garcia. This will be the first of a double-header, and it looks that we’ll have the better pitching for this game.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Kepler
GPP note – Garcia has been fairly stingy and could see anywhere from 2-5 innings, which could put a damper on this offense. He does allow some power, though more to righties, so you could try attacking him from that side.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – It’s hard to know what to expect from Smeltzer, though he is coming off of a strong performance against a slightly better offense. I don’t know that taking huge stacks against him with these bats is the best call.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we get my Royals taking on the Guardians, with Lych and Quantrill on the mound. It’s not a bad matchup for either offense, so I could see some action here. It is a short slate though, so you’ll have to get really creative to be sneaky.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Witt, Merrifield/Perez/Benintendi
GPP note – A decent/above-average matchup for these guys, I think some small/medium-sized stacks could do well here. Quantrill allows more power to lefties, though.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Ramirez is always in play but aside from him, these guys are a bit cold against lefties. Lynch does have above-average xwOBA allowed though, so maybe that might help them out a little.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Rounding out the early games we have Junis and the Giants taking on Suarez and the Phillies. Like the previous game, I think there are some decent spots here for the bats, though you might have to be a little more selective since Junis is having a decent season so far.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Ruf/Longoria/Estrada
GPP note – Tough spot for the lefties, though a very nice one for the righties. A few of the LHBs are hitting well though, so you could still try them (mostly Yastrzemski/Pederson/Crawford).
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Schwarber
GPP note – A fairly decent spot for the lefties, Junis allowed .214 ISO to them in the month of May.
Main slate
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Moving on to the main slate, we’ll start with Syndergaard and the Angels taking on Montgomery and the Yankees. It’s a nice hyped-up matchup, as it’s always fun to see a team with several stars go at it. I kind of see this one having shorter spurts of big hits rather than either team going completely off the rails, but we’ll see how things go.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Ward
GPP note – Montgomery has allowed decent power to righties but has been very strict to lefties, so outside of Ohtani, I’d be careful with the LHBs here.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Rizzo/Stanton
GPP note – Syndergaard isn’t a great target by any means, but he isn’t afraid to give up a home run here or there with how hard he can throw. If nothing else, be sure to grab some one-offs or small stacks against him.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Next up are the Mariners and Orioles, with Kirby and Baumann to start. This game is just loaded to the brim with volatility, so it could be a good source of some non-Coors bats to help differentiate your chalkier lineups.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – France/Rodriguez
GPP note – There’s no telling how long Baumann will stay in, but he’s been a soft target, so taking some small stacks near the top or middle of the order might not be a bad idea.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, Mancini/Mullins
GPP note – Possibly the same as above, so far it’s been a coin flip for how Kirby performs. Grab some stacks here in case he has another bad game. This game could see a higher than expected scoring outcome due to some rough pitching, so be sure to have some pieces of it (RvR looks to be the preferred way to attack Kirby, by the way).
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Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we get two of our top-dollar pitchers on the day, with Giolito and the White Sox taking on Gausman and the Blue Jays. Chances are we get a low-scoring ballgame, though there are still a few spots for the bats that could be worth a look.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Abreu
GPP note – Bad matchup for these guys, so we may want to look elsewhere for our stacks.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – Not a good matchup here either, though Giolito does allow some decent contact and power to righties on occasion. If you want a contrarian stack, you could try some RvR bats.
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
The Nationals and Mets are up next, with Corbin and Williams on the mound. I like the home team here, as Williams can be a bit more stingy than his salary would indicate, and the Mets’ offense is in a decent spot here against Corbin.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – A fairly tough matchup here, Williams allows some power to righties but not a whole lot else. Soto/Bell are always worth a look, at least.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, Marte/Canha
GPP note – A decent matchup for the righties, Corbin allowed .424 xwOBA / .218 ISO to them in May. His strikeout rate is also below average, so this wouldn’t be a bad spot to attack.
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox
We head into some potential rain issues with our next game, featuring Castillo and the Reds taking on Wacha and the Red Sox. While both pitchers are competent, they have shown some weaknesses that we can attack, so keep an eye on the weather to see if this will be a viable option.
Reds 5 star plays -none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Moustakas, Naquin
GPP note – Wacha’s strikeouts are down and he’s allowing a lot to lefties. I don’t see another 20-run game here or anything, but I could see them having a decent day against him.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Cordero, Martinez
GPP note – Castillo can be tough, but he’s allowing plenty to lefties. Enough to where we can attack him from that side but be careful with the righties as he’s been very stingy to them.
San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
Snell and the Padres take on Wainwright and the Cardinals next. This game reminds me a bit of the previous game, though without as much concern for the weather. While I don’t think that either game will have a huge score, I do think a handful of bats have a chance at a big hit or two, so some small/medium-sized stacks could be useful.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Voit
GPP note – Another up-and-down pitcher, Wainwright could have a good or bad outing, and it’s hard to know which version will show up. If you stack here, be sure to go big in the event has another bad outing (he allows more power to righties, so consider them too).
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
GPP note – If his strikeouts are any indication, Snell could be returning to form, so going with big stacks might not be the best option here. If nothing else, Goldy is always worth a look.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
We head down south for our next game between the Rays and Rangers, with Yarbrough and Perez to start things off. Neither pitcher looks to be a great target to attack, though I do worry about how much of a ceiling they might have. I get the feeling this game might be just a fantasy dud all the way around, but you be the judge.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Franco, Diaz
GPP note – Perez has been steady and has yet to allow a home run this season, so taking big swings at him here probably isn’t the best option. Maybe a one-off or small stack?
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Garver
GPP note – Yarbrough has only allowed one homer himself, and hasn’t been the best target to attack this season. I’d treat these two offenses the same today.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
We get some potential weather issues with our next game, which will feature Lauer and the Brewers taking on Steele and the Cubs. I think I’ll side with the visitors for this one, as they look to have the better matchup on both sides of the game. As always, keep an eye on the skies to see how things unfold throughout the day.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – McCutchen/Yelich, Taylor
GPP note – Steele had a rough outing after two strong ones, so if you decide to stack here, I’d probably go big in hopes that he’s still a little shaky. Righties seem to have the best luck against him.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Contreras/Happ/Wisdom
GPP note – Not a great matchup and these guys are having some strikeout issues as it is, so this looks like a bit of a bust. A few are hitting for power against lefties at least, so you could always try them if you really wanted to.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Up next is our Coors game between the Marlins and the Rockies, with Cabrera and Marquez to start. This one has a chance at even worse weather interference than our other two rainy games, so you’ll really want to pay attention here since it is Coors, after all. Wouldn’t it be just a shame for the chalky game to get rained out?
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Soler, Aguilar
GPP note – While Marquez does know how to pitch here, he’s allowing lots of power to both sides, and it’s a Coors game, so that’s reason enough to want to attack him. That said, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge a little here since he does have the occasional strong outing.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon/Cron
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon, Joe
GPP note – They’ll get a pitcher making his 2022 debut at Coors, so I suspect they’ll be ready to give him a warm welcoming. They won’t be sneaky at all though, so either go with the flow or look elsewhere for some ownership leverage.
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll head out west to switch over to our late-night games, starting with Morton and the Braves taking on Castellanos an the Diamondbacks This looks like a good spot for the Braves to beat up on Arizona, so we’ll see if they can come through as a Coors-alternative. Could the Diamondbacks fight back with some scoring of their own? I think they just might be able to.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Ozuna, Acuna
GPP note – A good spot for these guys to get some solid hits, Castellanos has a low strikeout rate and allows power to both sides of the plate (though more to lefties). These guys do like to strikeout, but the plus-matchup for them should help.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Peralta, Walker/Rojas
GPP note – Morton has allowed big power to lefties as of late, and a lot of these guys are hitting righties for some power. I don’t see a lot of people wanting to attack a $9k pitcher with other options on the slate, so maybe give these guys a look.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Javier and the Astros take on Montas and the Athletics next, and if not for Montas standing in the way, I’d say this would be an easy one for Houston. I’m sure they’ll still win, but I don’t know that they’ll light up the scoreboard in the process. However, they are pretty familiar with him, so I wouldn’t shy away from taking a few shots here and there.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Brantley (BvP), Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – Montas has been tough for the most part this season, though there is some significant BvP experience going for these guys. Trying some stacks here isn’t a bad idea.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Lowrie
GPP note – A tough matchup for these guys, Javier’s only weakness has been a little bit of power to lefties. A one-off or small stack might return some value, but that might be about it.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Keller and the Pirates taking on Urias and the Dodgers. In what will probably be the chalky non-Coors option, the Dodgers are in a great spot here and I suspect they’ll blast away until the late night until their starters get benched in the later innings. I can’t say much for the Pirates, so use them at your own risk.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Stacking against Urias usually comes up a bit short (unless you’re Philly), but I don’t mind some one-offs or small stacks here. Lefties have the power advantage against him currently.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner, Taylor/Smith/Bellinger
GPP note – This is a good matchup for these guys, which unfortunately means they’ll probably be a popular Coors pivot. I’d still have exposure here, but consider some wrap-around stacks or something else to be a little different.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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