Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/02:
Apr 17, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2) hits an rbi double against the Philadelphia Phillies in the sixth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Pablo Lopez – Carnage Report ranking coming soon
- It’s hard not to like the spot for Lopez here against this Arizona team. The Diamondbacks have the lowest implied run total on the slate at just 3.0 and heads to a big pitcher’s park in Miami. Lopez has a 0.39 ERA on the season and at least 16 DraftKings points in all four of his starts.
- Drew Rasmussen – Carnage Report ranking coming soon
- I’m going to continue to stream pitchers against the Athletics and it’s Rasmussen’s turn today. He’s coming off of a really nice start against the Mariners where he struck out nine batters and gets a great matchup with this A’s lineup here, the price tag looks nice as well.
- Zac Gallen – Carnage Report ranking coming soon
- Gallen is an interesting cheap option today against this Marlins team. He’s been really solid this season and we saw his pitch count get up to 90 last time out. Look for that to continue here as he carries a 0.60 ERA into this start.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Kansas City Royals (+150) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-175)
Implied Run Totals:
Royals – 3.3 IRT
Cardinals – 4.3 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll start in St. Louis where we have one of two day games on the slate. Zack Greinke will get the start for the Royals and has just not been great this season. The ERA and WHIP numbers look fine, but from a DFS perspective, the strikeouts aren’t there with just six on the season across four starts. He has just a 16% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and probably won’t be a guy I get to here. Steven Matz will get the ball for the Cardinals and will look like a solid pitching option. The Royals have an implied run total of just 3.3 and Matz has shown a nice ceiling this season even if his ERA doesn’t reflect it.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr.
GPP Note: The Royals would be more of a GPP stack for me but I do like the power/speed upside element to their stacks.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The Cardinals are probably one of the top stacks on the early slate, the slate doesn’t present a bunch of options, so you’ll likely get here a decent amount.
Los Angeles Angels (+104) @ Chicago White Sox (-120)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 3.7 IRT
White Sox – 3.9 IRT
Rundown:
The Angels will start Patrick Sandoval here and he’s yet to give up a run on the season after three really nice starts. He’s coming off of his best start of the season with 36 DraftKings points against Cleveland. I have no issue going right back to him here due to the form he’s in on a short slate. The White Sox will send Dylan Cease to the mound and has been just as good this season with at least 23 DraftKings points in three of his four starts. I would imagine you’ll get your pitching from this game and target that first game for your bats.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: The Angels stack is always interesting just because of the Ohtani/Trout element and will be a fine GPP stack here.
CHW 5-star plays: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Sandoval is due to regress at some point and give up a run or two… the White Sox are fine for GPPs as well on a short slate to kick the day off.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+133) @ Miami Marlins (-155)
Implied Run Totals:
Diamondbacks – 3.0 IRT
Marlins – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
Onto the main slate! The Dbacks will start Zac Gallen and will look like an interesting pitching option against a below-average Marlins lineup. Gallen is coming off of two really nice starts against the Dodgers and Mets with at least 33 FanDuel points in both games. He’ll look like a nice option in all formats, as will Pablo Lopez who will get the start for the Marlins. This Dbacks lineup is not good and comes in with just a 3.0 implied run total here. Lopez has looked great to start the season with an ERA below 0.50 and will look like a top option on the slate.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: I’ll have a lot of interest in the pitching in this game.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: As I mentioned with the Dbacks note, I love the pitchers in this game and that’s where I’ll get my exposure.
Minnesota Twins (-158) @ Baltimore Orioles (+135)
Implied Run Totals:
Twins – 4.2 IRT
Orioles – 3.4 IRT
Rundown:
Chris Paddack always finds a way to lure me in and he might again here as he gets a start against this below-average Orioles offense. Paddack has looked pretty good over his last two starts and has a decent enough 22% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. Tyler Wells will get the start for Baltimore and probably isn’t a guy that I’ll look to get a whole lot of here. If anything, I stack up this Twins offense and hope we can get to this Orioles bullpen.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: I’m a fan of the Twins stack here, I like targeting this Orioles pitching staff as much as I can and the hitting environment looks good in this one.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: I’ll probably have some interest in Paddack here but it doesn’t feel good, so hedging with some Orioles stacks is probably necessary.
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New York Yankees (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+102)
Implied Run Totals:
Yankees – 4.5 IRT
Blue Jays – 4.2 IRT
Rundown:
Jordan Montgomery will start for the Yankees in this one and draws a tough matchup with this Jays offense. The numbers on Montgomery have been solid enough this season to have at least a little interest, but I’ll have a hard time getting here in anything more than tournaments. Ross Stripling will get the ball for the Jays and is in a similar boat as Montgomery, he’s coming off of a nice start last time out but the Yankees have a good number of bats that can get him in trouble… again, more of a GPP option.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: I’ll have no issue getting to the Yankees in all formats tonight.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Montgomery does enough that it makes a full-stack somewhat risky, but a mini-stack is fully in play with these big boppers at the top of the lineup.
Atlanta Braves (-105) @ New York Mets (-115)
Implied Run Totals:
Braves – 3.5 IRT
Mets – 3.6 IRT
Rundown:
The Braves will send Max Fried to the mound in this one and will look like a solid enough pitching option on this slate. He has a 24% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and a really low 26% hard contact rate as well. I do like the Mets lineup which prevents him from being a lock and load pitcher, but he will look good here regardless. The Mets will start Chris Bassitt who will look good as well. Bassitt has looked really good this season with at least 24 DraftKings points in three of his four starts. He’s similar to Fried in that I like this Braves lineup a good amount but once you get passed the 5-spot the bottom of this lineup gets really weak.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Bassitt has looked really good this season, I’ll find another stack to get to tonight.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Similar story here, most likely just one-offs for me from the Mets.
Seattle Mariners (+110) @ Houston Astros (-130)
Implied Run Totals:
Mariners – 4.1 IRT
Astros – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Seattle will send Marco Gonzales to the mound to start this one out. He left his start early last time out after getting a come-backer hit right back at him but should be good to go here without any sort of restriction. Gonzales probably isn’t a guy that I’ll get too much from a DFS perspective due to his low strikeout rate and a tough matchup with Houston here. Speaking of Houston, they’ll start Jake Odorizzi and is a guy I think we can look to as a cheap SP2 option. He’s a bit scary considering he’s had two negative performances on the season, but I like the matchup and he’s coming off of a nice start against the Rangers last time out.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ty France, JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Part of the reason I like Odorizzi is because I don’t think this Seattle lineup is all that great.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick
GPP Note: Gonzales isn’t a guy that I like getting to for DFS, but I don’t love stacking against him either due to his ability to limit hard contact. I’ll likely limit myself to mini-stacks and one-offs from Houston.
Tampa Bay Rays (-165) @ Oakland Athletics (+145)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – 4.0 IRT
Athletics – 3.1 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll round the slate out with Drew Rasmussen starting in a great matchup with this A’s lineup. I’ve been streaming pitchers against this Oakland team all season and won’t stop here. Rasmussen is coming off of a huge game last time out against the Mariners and has a 24% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. Daulton Jefferies will start for the A’s here and just hasn’t shown enough for me to love getting to him here. The pitch count is climbing for him but this isn’t a great matchup either, I’ll use this spot as a wait-and-see start for him.
TBR 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe
GPP Note: I have no issue going to this Rays stack here, they generally treat young pitchers pretty poorly.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I just hate this lineup so much, go get some Drew Rasmussen.
MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Minnesota Twins
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Max Kepler (DK – $3.4k; FD – $2.8k)
Kepler is swinging a nice bat as of late with double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five games and gets a great matchup with this Orioles pitching staff here. He has a 0.261 ISO, 0.814 OPS, and a 0.500 SLG against righties on the season. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dinger predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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