Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Joe Musgrove
- Shane Bieber
- Johnny Cueto
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kelly was lit up by the Dodgers and that kind of took the wind out of his hot start sails. The BvP they have against him is extremely strong and their offense is absolutely rolling. Gonsolin has been pretty decent for LA so far and the D’Backs offense has started to come back down to earth.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .240 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee’s bats have been slumping a bit over the last week. They do have a couple of guys who have been hitting well, especially against LHPs. The overall Cardinals lineup has been so-so but Goldschmidt is absolutely destroying the baseball in May.
MIL 5-star plays: Mike Brosseau
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Twins – Chris Archer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Singer has gone 16.2 scoreless coming into this game but he did just face Minnesota and we know that generally favors an offense. Archer has been decent for MIN but he hasn’t been allowed to go very deep in any games yet. I do think we see some offense in this one.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals (-120) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Nationals – Joan Adon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a doubleheader between two struggling offenses who happen to be taking on some not-so-great pitching. The Vegas total for both games is pretty high so they seem to believe bad hitting will prevail over bad pitching. I don’t have a ton of interest in either side but might sprinkle in a one-off here or there.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals (-120) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Nationals – Aaron Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We get a doubleheader between two struggling offenses who happen to be taking on some not-so-great pitching. The Vegas total for both games is pretty high so they seem to believe bad hitting will prevail over bad pitching. I don’t have a ton of interest in either side but might sprinkle in a one-off here or there.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-120)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Braves – Tucker Davidson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am really shocked to see ATL favored in this one based on how badly Davidson has thrown the ball while also facing Alcantara. Atlanta has NOT hit Alcantara very well at all, so I really think this game ends up being under the total right now. I did read that one of Atlanta’s top prospects, Michael Harris, will be called up prior to this game.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels (-115)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The LA bats have cooled down but they have a bunch of guys who have seen and hit Kikuchi very well in their careers. Lorenzen is somebody that I don’t necessarily pick on but I do always use some Blue Jays stacks in my MME builds. I am interested in what the Angels do for a lineup tonight.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Danny Jansen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Taylor Ward
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-115)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Athletics – Zach Logue
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Hearn offers up some strong K ability but the issue is that he allows a ton of hard contact. I know we have been riding with SPs against OAK but I might pump the brakes a bit in this spot. Logue has been pretty decent at the MLB level but he does allow plenty of power to RHBs. With this being a day game in Oakland, I think we see the total go over the Vegas line.
TEX 5-star plays: Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Jonah Heim, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres (-245)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Pirates’ bats have been really hit or miss over the last week. Plenty of outs but plenty of HRs (for them). Musgrove should be in the best spot of the day but Manaea really let us down last night. The Padres offense has been pretty stagnant but Machado just keeps producing.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-145) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We should see a great pitching match-up as Cole is always a top play while Kluber gets to take on a very weak NYY lineup (thanks to injuries and COVID). There is some surprising BvP on the Yankees side but I kind of want to overlook it because it had to happen a number of years ago.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-130)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really think we are going to see some offense in this game. The Mets come in putting up plenty of runs while the Phillies have hit Walker extremely well in their individual careers. I want to go out on a limb and say that we see 5+ HRs in this one.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-200) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I do think we see plenty of runs in this doubleheader. The Orioles have some solid BvP and the Red Sox offense is just rolling at this point. Eovaldi has me really confused as he was great at avoiding the HR ball in 2021 but he’s allowing a ton of them in 2022.
BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
Orioles – Undecided
Red Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I do think we see plenty of runs in this doubleheader.
BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last week.
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San Francisco Giants (-175) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9.5. We should see plenty of offense in this park today and I think it mainly comes from the Giants’ side. I nearly went with one of the 2 SF bats below as my Dinger call for the day. The Reds have a few guys who have hit LHPs well or who have been hot of late.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .206 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Tyler Stephenson
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-150) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We just saw Faedo win this match-up last weekend but I think that Bieber wins this time around. Bieber should be extremely popular but that’s fine with me. Faedo has thrown the ball well as an SP for the Tigers so I don’t see myself wanting to stack against him.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The South siders take on the North siders this weekend. I think the White Sox put up some runs here. It’s really tough to trust Cueto but he has been strong so far. The Cubs bats have been hitting HRs over the last week but I don’t expect that to continue.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-125) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I can see this game going down as either a pitcher’s duel that ends up at 3-1 or it finishes 8-5. Both sides have plenty of BvP in their favor but both SPs are more than capable of dominating. Ty France and Julio Rodriguez will be one of my favorite mini-stacks because of how well they’ve been performing.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate (DK Main)
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Rafael Devers, Boston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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