Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We have a nice 12-game slate to work with tonight (as well as a few early birds if you need to scratch the itch sooner than the rest), so let’s see what we’re working with!
A look at pitchers
We have a pretty standard mix of options here today; a few higher-end options with double-digit strikeout upside, some middle-of-the-road options in plus & minus matchups, and of course a few that look like they may only last an inning or two. There might be a few sneaky spots, but overall things look pretty straight forward. Either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the Rockies and Pirates, with Freeland and Contreras on the mound. It might not be Coors, but both offenses here have a good matchup on their hands, so we could see some scoring. It’s a shame this one’s not on the main slate, but what can you do?
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, McMahon
GPP note – Roansy seems to be settling in a bit, but still can give up some pop here and there. Taking some lefties against him is pretty well in play here.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Hayes
GPP note – Freeland allows power to both sides of the plate (a little more to righties, in fact), so you can attack him here even if it’s not a Coors game.
Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have Lopez and the Marlins taking on McClanahan and the Rays. In what basically amounts to the exact opposite of the previous game, we get two solid pitchers that could very well hold this game down for the bulk of the innings. Maybe we’ll get some late-inning scoring, but otherwise, we may struggle to find the over.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler
GPP note – Bad matchup against McClanahan, so attack him at your own risk.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Kiermaier
GPP note – Bad matchup here too, especially if they don’t have Franco again. I’d be careful here, too.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Cubs and Reds, who will start Stroman and Mahle. The weather looks good for this batter-friendly ballpark, which could help as each offense will have at least some chances of doing something. How much exactly remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a better spot than the last game.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras/Wisdom
GPP note – An okay-ish matchup for both sides of the plate, but it’s mostly just a few righties that are hitting righties very well right now. Gomes if worth a look too, should he start.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Drury, Naquin/Moustakas/Moran
GPP note – Several of these bats are hitting righties for good power, and Stroman is allowing some power of his own to both sides. It’s not the worst idea to try an attack here.
Main slate
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with Zimmermann and the Orioles taking on Montgomery and the Yankees. I think we all expect more of the same here, so the Yankees’ bats are obvious, but Baltimore is in a decent-ish spot, so don’t completely forget about them.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander
GPP note – Not a great matchup, but Montgomery does allow some power to righties and this team does at least have a bunch of them. Some small/medium-sized stacks couldn’t hurt.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge/Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres, Rizzo
GPP note – No surprises here; these guys can hit for a ton and Zimmermann allows power to both sides of the plate. Maybe try some wrap-around stacks to be a little different.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Up next we get Buehler and the Dodgers taking on Gray and the Nationals. It’s the same ol’ for Buehler (though his last two starts were a bit rough), and even though he’s facing the Dodgers, they hiked up Gray’s price from last week when he faced Miami. We’ll see if he’s good for it or not as he faces his old team.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, J Turner, Bellinger
GPP note – Gray has been mostly stingy to righties, but allows plenty of contact and power to lefties. He’s given up 6 homers over his last 3 starts, and I suspect he’ll give up some more here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Soto/Bell, Ruiz
GPP note – Not a very good matchup so as usual, it might just be Soto/Bell and get out.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Gibson and the Phillies take on Fried and the Braves next, and it looks like we’ll need to keep an eye on the sky for some potential weather issues. If they do play as scheduled, I think there could be a few bats that could do something here. If they start and the starting pitchers get rained out early, well, there could be some fireworks.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Segura/Hoskins/Castellanos
GPP note – While not a great matchup, Fried does allow some power and these guys can get some big hits, so it’s a viable stack for tournament use.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Ozuna
GPP note – Gibson has some decent reverse splits working against him, so trying some righties here isn’t a bad idea. Maybe not huge stacks, but a little bit of back-and-forth could certainly happen.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
The Tigers and Twins are up next, with Brieske and Gray getting the start. Gray seems awfully cheap for this matchup (especially on DK), but they didn’t ask me for my input on the matter. Nevertheless, he’ll make a fine SP2, as I don’t see the Tigers having a whole lot of success against him here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Tough matchup against Gray who has been pretty solid as of late, with low-key one of the highest strikeout rates on the day. I’d probably look for contrarian stacks elsewhere.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Polanco/Sanchez/Kepler/Correa
GPP note – Brieske allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, but more of that has been given up to righties. Might be a good spot to run some RvR bats.
Toronto Blue Jays at St Louis Cardinals
Gausman and the Blue Jays will take on Hicks and the Cardinals next, and this looks like a tough matchup for both Kevin and the St Louis offense. Both offer plenty of upside, so it might not be a bad idea to hedge a little here as many may elect to shy away from them.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – Another reverse splits spot, Hicks allows far more power to righties than he does lefties.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/ARenado
GPP note – Bad matchup for these guys but they’ve managed to pop off some runs in all sorts of matchups, so they’re not off the table for tournament use.
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros
We’ll head down south for our next matchup between the Guardians and Astros, with Plesac and Valdez on the mound. This one looks pretty good for the home team, as they’ll get the better matchup for their starter and offense alike. Maybe a few of the Cleveland bats can do something here, but I don’t know that it’ll be a team effort.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Ramirez, Miller
GPP note – Another matchup with something to be desired, Valdez gets his strikeouts and has only given up one home run thus far this season. It’s hard to recommend much outside of some small contrarian stacks.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Tucker, Bregman, Brantley
GPP note – Finally, a good matchup for both sides of the plate, with bats that are hitting righties quite well. This entire lineup looks to be in play, so don’t be afraid to try some wrap-around stacks or something else a little off the beaten path.
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
We get our Sox matchup next, with Boston’s Pivetta taking on Chicago’s Cease. Both pitchers have some big upside that they can find against just about anybody, so it would be a good idea to have exposure to both of them in your tournaments. Bits and pieces of each offense could be worth a look too, but I don’t know that I’d want a whole lot of big stacks against these two in their current form.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Martinez, Devers
GPP note – Another tough matchup on the day, Cease allows some power to righties which is about his only weakness.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson
GPP note – Pivetta hasn’t allowed very much power as of late, so going with big stacks doesn’t seem like the best course of action here, either.
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Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
We head out west for our late-night games, starting with Dunning and the Rangers taking on Syndergaard and the Angels. I would except Noah to have the upper hand here, though this Texas offense was able to get to him a bit not too long ago. It’ll be interesting to see which side prevails this time, but for us, I think some hedging would work wonders in tournaments.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Seager, Miller
GPP note – These guys started to get to Noah when they faced each other last week, so going back to them might not be a bad idea in case they figured out a good game plan.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Ward/Walsh
GPP note – Dunning has traditional splits, with much more power given up to lefties than to righties. Trout is always in play, of course.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Up next we have Kaprielian and the Athletics taking on Kirby and the Mariners. Games like these are fun, as it looks like all sides of this one represent low floors and high ceilings, and I don’t think any of them will be all that highly owned. If you’re in the mood to throw some darts, here’s your game!
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
GPP note – Kirby certainly has some strikeout upside (especially against these guys), but does allow some hits to rack up, so you could go for some lower-exposure hedging here.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Suarez/France
GPP note – Kap has given up some power to righties and solid contact to lefties, so even though this isn’t the most exciting offense out there, you could try some smaller stacks here to see if they can get to him.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Our next matchup will be between the Brewers and Padres, with Burnes and Snell taking the lead. Burnes didn’t have the best game against Atlanta, but has looked solid otherwise. Snell didn’t look too hot in his 2022 debut either, so he may still be vulnerable here.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich/McCutchen, Renfroe
GPP note – Snell didn’t have the best start to the season, so it may not be a bad idea to attack him again here in case he’s in for another iffy outing.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 3.5 star plays – Machado, Voit
GPP note – Tough matchup against Burnes, and it doesn’t help that this team has more strikeouts than they do hits against him. It might be best to look elsewhere for your big stacks today.
Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Up next we get Heasley and my Royals taking on Gallen and the Diamondbacks. I’m going to give it to you straight, and I know this will be a shocker, but this doesn’t look to be a very good spot for KC at all. I worry about Gallen breezing through 5-7 innings with the Arizona offense getting their evening cardio session running around the bases, so if you want exposure here, I’d look at them.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Witt
GPP note – Gallen has been awfully strict and has only allowed one home run this season. While these guys are doing a decent job keeping their strikeouts down, they’re not doing much when they put the ball in play, so I doubt there’s much upside to be found here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Peralta, Walker/Marte
GPP note – It’s a small sample size but Heasley has allowed 8 hits (3 of which were doubles) and 7 walks in just 8 innings, while only grabbing 2 strikeouts. If that trend continues, these bats could have a field day with him, so be sure to try some stacks here.
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Mets and Giants, with Bassitt and Webb on the mound. We have two solid pitchers here, though both have shown some weaknesses we can target. Another decent hedge spot, I don’t think having exposure to all four corners of this one would be a bad idea.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 3.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – This isn’t supposed to be a good matchup, but Webb has allowed some power to lefties and I don’t know that many people will be attacking him here. Try some small/medium-sized stacks in case they’re low-owned and are able to get a few good hits against him.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Crawford/Yastrzemski, Ruf
GPP note – Similar idea as above; Bassitt allows some decent power to righties so you could try to exploit that here as well.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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