Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Merrill Kelly (what’s the wind going to be like?)
- Yusei Kikuchi
- Shane Bieber
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I love seeing such a high total between these two teams. Gonsolin has thrown the ball exceptionally well but I don’t expect him to continue at the level he has been. Eflin can look like a stud for multiple innings and then the next thing you know, the Dodgers have 6 runs on 3 HRs.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Padres – Mackenzie Gore
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am obviously a huge fan of Gore and I will be using him in my builds but I kind of like mini-stacks from both sides. Wood might be the sneaky GPP play as we know that the SD lineup has had its struggles. I wouldn’t blame you for just skipping over this game.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .061 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Darin Ruf
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-170) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have no idea why this game is starting so early. Matz feels like a pretty strong play while the Cards’ offense should wake up with 5+ runs against Wilson. I like the idea of adding Nolan Gorman to the guys I have below, thinking he picks up his first HR soon.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (-115)@ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There is plenty of BvP in the Twins’ favor for this match-up with Singer. I am a little shocked at such a low total so I will need to look into the KC weather. I don’t mind a Benintendi-Melendez mini-stack of the Royals but their team total is just too low.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-230)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Aaron Sanchez
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. My initial reaction to this match-up makes me believe that the Brewers are going to take this game pretty easily and from a DFS standpoint, I hate when I get those feelings. The Nats do have a couple of bats that are dangerous and Peralta can allow some runs, randomly.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
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New York Mets (-125) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Walker strikes me as a guy who should struggle in Coors, which means I am actually more interested in the Rockies than the Mets side in this one. I like how Gomber has performed in Coors over the last year or so but the Mets aren’t an easy match-up for him.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (EVEN) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There is a couple of strong BvP spots in this game but I really expect it to be a strong game for both SPs. Sanchez has had his struggles in May but damn has he destroyed Anderson in their brief careers. Ozuna appears to be heating up at a great time for the Braves.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-200)
Pitchers:
A’s – Cole Irvin
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Irvin is expected to come off of the IL to make this start. He’s omebody that I definitely wouldn’t suggest using against the Angels. Sandoval is in a great spot as we continue to target the OAK bats with the opposing P. Ohtani has hit Irvin pretty well in a smaller sample.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-190)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros have cooled off considerably but we could see them wake up against Hearn. The big thing that stood out to me is the success of Houston’s LHBs against Hearn in their careers. I really hope Huff is in the lineup thanks to his power history against Urquidy.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Sam Huff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last week.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-170) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Corey Kluber
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We could see some fireworks in Camden or we could see Kluber step up and hold the O’s to like 1 run over 6 innings of action. Arozarena had been heating up and then he went and double-donged yesterday. The Rays need somebody else to get hot in order to help the injury-depleted lineup.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-185) – Game 1
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think we see some offensive fireworks in NY today. Taillon has been decent but I see signs of the White Sox offense waking up. We know how dangerous the Yankees offense is when at home, hitting HRs at a ridiculous pace. I wouldn’t be shocked if Stanton picked up another double-dong performance.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees – Game 2
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Yankees – Luis Severino
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We are starting to get higher totals in Fenway so we know the weather is heating up. At first glance, the SPs aren’t terrible but both have had some struggles recently. The big thing for me is how Eovaldi has struggled with the HR ball. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game featured 5+ HRs today.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 over the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays (-240)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. Kikuchi has to end up one of the most popular SPs on the slate of games. I keep waiting for the Blue Jays to get hot and maybe they needed to face a guy today (Ashcraft) who has a WHIP over 1.50 in the minors this season. Bichette double-donged yesterday, so maybe it’s Vladdy Jr’s turn?
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .076 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .111 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs (-125)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Cubs – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I like the SP match-up as the total tells me that the wind isn’t blowing out at Wrigley today. Kelly is coming off of a rough performance but that one is one that we predicted because of how dominant the Dodgers had been against him. I think he bounces back extremely well against the Cubs. Miley won us a bunch of money in his last start and while I don’t think he has the same success, he definitely could get us there again.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-185)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bieber is in an excellent spot against a struggling Detroit lineup. Faedo has been a bit of a surprise for Detroit and might go overlooked in today’s action. I don’t really have a desire to use bats from this game, so I might just stick to using Ramirez as a one-off.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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