Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/21:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Joe Ryan
- Alek Manoah
- Shane Bieber
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Mitch White
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Dodgers are going with a modified bullpen game as White will make a spot start. He came up through the minors as an SP but he has been used more as a 1-2ish inning guy this season. Nola has elite numbers at home in his career but this is a difficult match-up. I like him as a GPP flier because of his upside.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (-140)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I like Rodon to bounce back after a horrendous outing against the Cardinals. The Padres lineup just doesn’t appear all that dangerous overall, especially against LHPs. The Giants have plenty of plus BvP history against Musgrove and he has had troubles with LHBs in his career.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .061 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Liberatore is the main piece that the Cardinals got from the Rays for Arozarena. He was a 1st round pick out of HS in 2018. He has put up a K/9 of 10.35 at AAA this season. I think the Cardinals are doing a great thing by having him make his debut against Pittsburgh. Quintana has thrown the ball well so far but this Cardinals squad can really do damage against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (-145) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Ryan is going to be one of my favorite SPs today. After a couple of rough outings, he bounced back with a strong performance and bypassed the 100-pitch mark. He was given an extra day of rest so he should be ready to go. Keller is a guy that can have a ton of success or he might struggle to get through the 3rd inning. A few of the Twins bats have hit him well.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-220)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Nationals are 0-8 in games started by Corbin this season. Woodruff has NOT been very sharp in 2022. He gets to face an offense that should help him get straightened out as most of the lineup is struggling. Renfroe is going to be one of my finalists for Dinger of the Day.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
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New York Mets (-125) @ Colorado Rockies – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Rockies are in the better position as they’ve played plenty of games at home so far this season while the Mets are coming into Coors. With that said, this weekend is going to be pretty crappy from a weather standpoint. We might be able to get away with playing some pitching in this series while not having to fully stack either side. There will still be an HR or three hit but we may see 5-3 type games more than 9-7.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Trevor Williams
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Ryan McMahon
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-145) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Wright has been great against Miami as he struck out 11 in 6 innings earlier this season. Hernandez is an arm that I always think is ready to break out but he always seems to run into issues. His main issue is that he allows plenty of HRs to be hit and that’s a recipe for disaster.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-145)
Pitchers:
A’s – Frankie Montas
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Lorenzen was strong against OAK last weekend and he received an extra couple of days of rest coming into this start. Montas has had troubles with a few of the Angels’ bats but he just struck out 12 Angels last weekend. I don’t see myself wanting to stack the Angels but they do have a couple of nice one-off candidates.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Barrera, Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-250)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both of these teams let us down on Friday night, well minus Kole Calhoun who came through as my dinger call. You might notice Semien below and no, I haven’t gone off the deep end. To me, it looks like he’s starting to come to life and he has had some success against Verlander. The Astros haven’t hit Gray all that well but they had been rolling going into last night so I want to believe they turn it back on again.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Aledmys Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last week.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-135) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I honestly think I am going to be on the Baltimore side again. Bradish has a big-time arm but he gets himself in trouble with the HR ball. The big thing to realize is that he has dominated LHBs but struggled against RHBs. That’s key here because of the ballpark and how difficult it is for RHBs to pull HRs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Tyler Nevin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-220)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
New York Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see the Yankees highly owned tonight as they are back at home and love hitting HRs in Yankee stadium. Keuchel just shut them down last weekend so I think we see some more loud contact from the Yankees as he’s not somebody that should have success against their lineup. Cortes just keeps plugging along, performing above expectations so I might just have to give in. I keep waiting for the White Sox bats to wake up against LHPs but they can’t seem to break through, aside from the 3 guys below.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-155)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Whitlock has been filthy in his time with Boston and he’s finally getting a shot in the rotation. I do worry about his K stuff not being the same. He has dominated both RH and LHBs but the HRs he has allowed have all been to RHBs this season. Trevor Story has awoken and gives the Red Sox some much-needed lineup depth.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Trevor Story
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 over the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays (-255)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. Manoah lines up as possibly the top SP on the day. We know how bad the Reds have been but there is one worry for me. Manoah has been pedestrian against LHBs this season and I expect Cincinnati to have a bunch of them in the lineup today. On the other side, Greene and his massive fastball could run into some troubles He has been a pretty strong reverse splits pitcher so far. That’s not a good thing when facing Toronto.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .076 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .111 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs (-145)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. What a difference a day makes as we saw roughly 24 HRs hit in yesterday’s game but we could see none hit today. The weather is completely different at Wrigley. Both of the SPs are definitely in play with the wind blowing in. Steele is very interesting because he has been extremely strong against RHBs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-185)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bieber is in an excellent spot against a struggling Detroit lineup. Faedo has been a bit of a surprise for Detroit and might go overlooked in today’s action. I don’t really have a desire to use bats from this game, so I might just stick to using Ramirez as a one-off.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Hunter Renfroe, Milwaukee Brewers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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