Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/20:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chase Silseth
- Ranger Suarez (are we on him or against him this time?)
- Eric Lauer
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Well, here we are again as the Dodgers have to face another LHP and Urias has to face an offense that destroyed him in LA last weekend. I wouldn’t be expecting more HRs from PHI against him tonight but I do worry about his upside. The 9 run total is really interesting since I think the Dodgers struggle so much against competent LHPs. The Dodgers offense has been rolling this week and I generally like to target hot hitting lineups so you will definitely have to stay tuned to the VIP notes tonight.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am not sure how I want to attack this game at first glance. We get two pitchers that are performing to the opposite of what I would expect. Manaea hasn’t been as sharp recently but offers a ton of upside and ability while Junis has been really good for the Giants so far. I would expect a little bit of regression for both, one being positive and the other negative. The Giants are coming out of a series in Coors, which makes me like Manaea more and more while the Padres offense has gone ice cold.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-150) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wainwright was strong in his return from the COVID list and now faces a lineup that’s extremely weak. Thompson is in trouble in my eyes as he has been a pretty severe reverse-splits SP and the Cardinals have some potent RHBs for him to deal with. Goldschmidt has been on an absolute tear and that should continue against Thompson this evening.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was tempted to consider Smeltzer but the Royals have picked up some potency lately despite a few guys still struggling. The Twins have a hot Sanchez with the bats of Buxton and Correa so I love the spot they are in. I like seeing a run total of 8.5 in Kansas City as this park has traditionally been a pitcher’s park. Dozier is red hot at the plate and makes for a strong one-off play.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-200)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. So is this the time that I finally jump on the Lauer train, only to find out that I was the one to derail it? He’s a massive favorite and he is racking up the strikeouts this season. Bell and Soto have pretty strong BvP against Lauer but I think this version of Lauer has become a stronger SP at the MLB level. The Brewers’ bats have cooled down some but returning home can be a way for them to kick-start their offense again.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
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New York Mets (-125) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Rockies are in the better position as they’ve played plenty of games at home so far this season while the Mets are coming into Coors. With that said, this weekend is going to be pretty crappy from a weather standpoint. We might be able to get away with playing some pitching in this series while not having to fully stack either side. There will still be an HR or three hit but we may see 5-3 type games more than 9-7.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-120) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Both Rogers and Morton have turned things around over their last couple of starts, ironically against the same opponents in SD and MIL. Rogers also shut down the Braves a month ago but I think we could see a few runs from the Braves in this one. Morton looks like he’s figuring things out and the big thing is that the Marlins might be pretty weak overall from the left side, which is huge for Morton’s success.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-185)
Pitchers:
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Angels – Chase Silseth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I will be honest, I feel really dirty putting so many Angels in the plays list below because Blackburn has been really solid this season. It’s more about how well the Angels have swung the bats or have done against Blackburn individually. Silseth made his MLB debut against this OAK squad and allowed just 1 hit. He was somebody I was all about in that one and I am going to be all about him in this one. It will be a nice chess match, seeing which side makes the adjustment from the first meeting.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Barrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Brandon Marsh
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-175)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a very interesting match-up here as the Astros are mashing the ball and have hit 16 HRs over the last week but they take on an SP in Perez who hasn’t allowed an HR yet this season. What’s going to give in this meeting? Since 33% of the hits allowed by Perez have gone for extra-bases this season, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Astros get themselves an HR.
TEX 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .264 over the last week.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-135) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Jalen Beeks/Ryan Yarbrough
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This feels like a sneaky game to target for runs tonight. I like the match-up for the Orioles and if I like that, I should like the Rays since they are road favorites. As of right now, Yarbrough is expected to be the long reliever after Beeks opens. I hate the opener/long reliever thing and this is one that I don’t understand because you are using 2 LHPs together, which doesn’t force any weird things for the Orioles.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brett Phillips
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-215)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
New York Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We should see the Yankees highly owned tonight as they are back at home and love hitting HRs in Yankee stadium. Keuchel just shut them down last weekend so I think we see some more loud contact from the Yankees as he’s not somebody that should have success against their lineup. Cortes just keeps plugging along, performing above expectations so I might just have to give in. I keep waiting for the White Sox bats to wake up against LHPs but they can’t seem to break through, aside from the 3 guys below.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-120)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game has a pretty high total considering the reigning AL Cy Young winner is pitching for Seattle. Both sides have some strong BvP in the hitters’ favor tonight. Story broke out last night with a massive game so I do worry about chasing that game but he is 8 for 27 with 3 HRs and 10 walks against Ray in his career. A few of the SEA bats have seen Wacha plenty thanks to their time spent in the NL Central.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France, Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. The Blue Jays bats have been really cold and now they face a guy who can dominate on any night. I am tempted to play this game’s under because I don’t see the Reds getting to Ryu much, despite his struggles so far in 2022. I might target this game for one-offs and maybe a mini-stack. With that being said, I don’t necessarily want to go heavy on either SP as Ryu is still working his way back and Castillo can definitely implode.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .090 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. We get a HUGE total in a Wrigley game, which means we have wind blowing out. This is an island game during the day so we are just playing showdown/single game contests but I would definitely avoid playing the SPs in more than just a handful of builds.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I absolutely love the spot for Skubal against the Guardians lineup. I think he has what it takes to really shut them down so that leads me to wanting to play the under. The Tigers bats have picked it up some from a power perspective recently but they aren’t getting on base all that much. Civale can definitely allow some runs so it’s a tough spot but I think we end up with a 4-2 type of a ball game.
DET 5-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Seattle Mariners
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kole Calhoun, Texas Rangers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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