Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s another split-slate day, but at least we don’t have a bunch of double-headers to mess with today. Even without them, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice assortment of pitching options today, including a handful of studs to go with a few duds in the mix. We also get the return of Snell, so it’ll be nice to have another familiar face back in the mix. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early slates
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ll kick things off with the Braves and Brewers, with Fried and Burnes on the mound. Many of the matchups today will resemble this one, as we have a lot of good pitching that leaves something to be desired for big stacks. Alas, we’ll find some good spots where we can.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 3.5 star plays – Acuna
GPP note – Tough matchup against Burnes who only allows modest power to either side of the plate. I wouldn’t feel very good about big stacks here, so be careful.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich/Renfroe
GPP note – Similar to the Braves, this isn’t exactly a great matchup, as Fried only allows some power to righties and very little to lefties. He has allowed a homer in 4 straight starts, so you could try some one-offs or mini-stacks, but big stacks don’t seem to be the right call.
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Up next are the Tigers and Rays, who will start Rodriguez and Rasmussen. Even though these two are cheaper, the overall matchup for the offenses aren’t a whole lot better than the previous game, so I’m not finding myself drooling over anything here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Castro
GPP note – Another tough matchup, there just doesn’t look to be a whole lot of useful options here. Maybe a one-off or two could luck into something?
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco
GPP note – E-Rod is holding pretty steady but does have some reverse splits in action, so you could at least throw a lefty or two at him. Otherwise, it doesn’t look great here, either.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Next up is our saving grace for the day, our Coors game featuring the Giants and Rockies. We’ll have Webb and Freeland to start, and because there are so many tough-looking matchups today, I suspect Coors will be extra chalky. Extra salty too, should they fail to come through for the masses.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Flores, Belt/Crawford/Yastrzemski
GPP note – It’s Coors, so you don’t need me to tell you to play them. Freeland has traditional splits and allows more power to righties.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon/Cron
GPP note – Same deal here, though Webb allows more to lefties than righties. Both pitchers have around a 15% strikeout rate, so the hits are sure to come in.
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
Gray and the Twins face Jefferies and the Athletics next, and we do at least get a good matchup here for one of the offenses. That would be the Twins of course, because the A’s face somebody who just mowed them down not too long ago. Will he do it again? My magic 8 ball seems to think so.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Polanco, Kepler/Sanchez
GPP note – Jefferies allows power and contact to both sides, though more to righties. This is good news for these guys, seeing as they have some potent righties to choose from. Grab some stacks!
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Gray has been tough and managed 7 strikeouts against these guys in just 4 innings not too long ago. They’re not hitting righties well at all either, so…fade?
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Moving on we have the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, with Davies and Buehler as the starters. I don’t think much needs to be said about Arizona’s matchup here, but it’s not the best one the Dodgers could ask for, either. I have no doubts that they’ll prevail, but it might not be as explosive of a win as they’ll have this season.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays –
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker
GPP note – Not much to love here, and Buehler went off the rails the last time he faced this team. He does allow some power to righties so you could try that if you really wanted, but I can’t get too excited about that.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/Betts
GPP note – Davies has been fairly good this season and has only allowed 3 homers over 2 of his starts, so I don’t know that this will be a high-scoring affair. He does allow a little more power to lefties, so that’d be the way to go.
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Garcia and Pivetta are up next, with the Astros taking on the Red Sox. Once again, we have a pitching matchup that isn’t overly appealing for either club, so you may want to grab what’s good and get out.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve, Tucker/Brantley
GPP note – Pivetta seems to be settling in, so I think small/medium-sized might work better here than full blown ones. He has traditional splits and allows more power to lefties, so be sure to include them in your attacks.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Martinez/Bogaerts
GPP note – Another stingy matchup on the day, Garcia does allow some decent power to righties, but his strong strikeout rate and low statcast numbers overall doesn’t make me love the idea of attacking him too heavily here.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Reds and Guardians, who will start Mahle and Quantrill. I don’t mind the spot the Reds are in today, and I think there could be some back-and-forth in this one. I don’t know that it’ll be a score for the ages by any means, so you’ll have to pick your spots carefully.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Pham/Drury, Moustakas
GPP note – Quantrill has low wOBA/ISO numbers to both sides but high xwOBA and a low strikeout rate. What does that mean? It means that plenty of good contact is being made against him, it just hasn’t manifested into him getting shelled yet. His day is coming, and these bats are trying to get something going, so do what you will with that information.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – On paper I think these guys have the less-desirable matchup, though Mahle is allowing some power to righties. Consider taking some of them to go with Ramirez, should you go here.
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Main slate
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Moving on to the main slate we start with the Nationals and Marlins, with Gray and Lopez on the hill. We get right back to tougher matchups, especially for the Nationals, as Lopez has been one tough customer. Unfortunately this is just the start of it for this slate.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Lopez allows a little bit of power to lefties but overall doesn’t seem like a good pitcher to pick on.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Soler, Aguilar
GPP note – Gray allows some power to both sides, but quite a bit more to lefties. I’m feeling one-offs or mini-stacks here due to overall matchup and strikeout rates on both sides.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Up next we get Snell and Wheeler, with the Padres facing the Phillies. It’ll be Snell’s first start this season, and while he can certainly have his tough games, he’s also got the potential to slow an offense to a screeching halt. The same can be said for Wheeler, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go well below the under.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Hosmer
GPP note – Another matchup that’s hard to get too excited over, Wheeler does allow some power to lefties, so grabbing Hosmer wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Castellanos
GPP note – It’s hard to know where Snell will be in his return, and there’s not really much BvP to fall back on here either. I’d probably go light or heavy (in hopes that he has a bad outing), and consider hedging some lineups.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Cole and the Yankees take on Lyles and the Orioles next, and fortunately only one of these teams gets a mostly terrible matchup today. I don’t think getting cute will pay off here, so I’d probably just grab some Yankees and move on.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Rizzo
GPP note – Same ‘ol thing here; load ‘em up and watch ‘em hit some homers. Lyles has been okay but allows lots of power to lefties.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins
GPP note – Cole allows some power on occasion, but overall this is a hard matchup to really get behind.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Moving on we have Gonzales and the Mariners taking on Gausman and the Blue Jays. This one is a repeat of the previous game, but this time it’s the home team that looks to have the advantage. I don’t see Seattle doing a whole lot against Gausman, so stack at your own risk.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Hey look, another tough matchup on the day. Contrarian stacks only, if you dare.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer/Guerrero, Bichette
GPP note – Finally, a softer matchup that we can feel good about attacking. I’m sure they’ll carry some ownership, but perhaps it can’t be helped. Bats from either side of the plate are in a good spot here.
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St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Next up we get Hicks and the Cardinals taking on Scherzer and the Mets, and this is another game where one team gets an okay matchup and the other, well, there’s always tomorrow. I suppose if they can get ahold of one of Scherzer’s fastballs it could go far, as he does throw hard, but that’s the difficult part. The easy part is for us to look elsewhere (or throw some contrarian stacks out there without caution, because hey, you never know).
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Edman (some BvP)
GPP note – If you feel comfortable attacking Scherzer, be my guest. I’d probably only do it in small batches, though.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, McNeil/Nimmo
GPP note – A fairly average matchup, Hicks allows more power to righties so you could try your luck with them. He does pitch better than his salary would indicate, though.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Contreras and the Pirates take on Smyly and the Cubs next, and it would figure that the Reds and Pirates are both in interesting spots on a day like today. They’ll have a good matchup against Smyly, so maybe they can help somebody win a tournament today. As for the Cubs, their opponent has looked pretty good so far, so we’ll see he does against them.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes/Reynolds
GPP note – This is a good spot for the righties, so you may have to resort to some exposure here due to all of the tough pitching matchups today. Yeah, I know, super exciting!
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras
GPP note – Contreras has looked decent in his short appearances, so I wouldn’t go blindly stacking against him just yet. Not many of these guys are hitting righties all that well, either.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
We’ll head down south for our next matchup, with Ohtani and the Angels taking on Dunning and the Rangers. Both pitchers will look to hold down their opponent, and with how they’re pitching, they could certainly do that. Unfortunately for us that means both of these offense could have questionable upside, but such is the day today, isn’t it?
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Ward/Walsh
GPP note – Dunning is becoming more and more strict and hasn’t allowed a homer in his last three starts. I think some small/medium-sized stacks could be fine, but he doesn’t seem like he’s in a spot to get shelled here.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Seager
GPP note – Ohtani has been sharp and is yet another tough target to attack today. I wouldn’t recommend much more than some one-offs or mini-stacks here.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Giolito and the White Sox taking on Greinke and my Royals. It’s a little strange having the last few games in CST; I’m so used to those late night west coast games! Anyway, in regards to this ballgame, I think the White Sox are in a spot to bounce back and run up the score a little, while the Royals will struggle to find much against Giolito.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu/Grandal, Luis/Anderson
GPP note – Greinke hasn’t been dominating and some of these bats know him fairly well, so I could see them doing some damage here. The righties have the power advantage here, so make use of it.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez
GPP note – I don’t see these guys having much luck against Giolito, so proceed with caution.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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