Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a split-slate day today, as well as several double-headers, so that should make things interesting. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice selection of pitching options for all the slates today. The early birds get access to the highest KSCORE of the day with McClanahan (a whopping 618), while the main slate has a few pitchers with some potential upside…even at the almighty Coors Field. There are some interesting ways to go, so as always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early slates
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
We’ll kick things off with a divisional game between the White Sox and my Royals, with Cease and Singer on the mound. I fully expect Cease to have his way here for the most part, and his offense should have some good opportunities as well. Maybe I should be a little more supportive of my team…
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson, Sheets
GPP note – These guys know KC’s playbook well, so stacks of any size are in play. Don’t worry about the RvR matchup to start, these guys hit righties just fine.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Merrifield (some BvP)
GPP note – Bad matchup against Cease. While their experience against him might help keep the strikeouts down (doubtful), I don’t see them doing a whole lot here, so tread lightly.
St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Up next we have Mikolas and the Cardinals taking on Williams and the Mets. We have an 8 total for this one, though both offenses have shown they can do that on their own. It’ll be tough to do that though since we do have some decent pitching here, so it might not be a bad spot to hedge a few lineups.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
GPP note – Good matchup here with some reverse splits for the righties; Williams is allowing .432 wOBA / .167 ISO to them.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 3.5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso/Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – A fairly tough matchup for these guys, though Mikolas’ strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as other high-dollar pitchers. I wouldn’t go overboard, but I don’t think running some small stacks is a terrible idea.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Kelly and the Diamondbacks take on Pepiot and the Dodgers’ bullpen next, in our final first-of-a-double-header game today. Given the pitching matchups, I do think both offenses are worth a look here, even Arizona’s. If they go off, you heard it here first!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Varsho, Walker/Peralta
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game so who knows how things will go, but these guys are hitting righties fairly well, so it wouldn’t be the worst thing to run some small/medium stacks here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/Betts, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Kelly can hold his own when he’s on his game, and I would think he’d come prepared for this one. Like the other games, it might be best to take small/medium stacks here instead of larger ones.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
Moving on to the late-afternoon games, we’ll start with Overton and the Reds taking on Plesac and the Guardians. I like both of these offenses too, maybe even Cincinnati’s just a tick more than Cleveland’s. We’ll see how it plays out, but I have some faith in them.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 to 4 star plays – Drury/Pham/Stephenson, Naquin/Moran/Moustakas
GPP note – These guys have been showing signs of life as of late and are hitting righties pretty well. It helps that Plesac allows contact and power to both sides of the plate, so I don’t mind taking some shots here.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Overton allows some big reverse splits, so attacking with some righties along with Ramirez isn’t a bad idea.
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Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Next up we have Adon and the Nationals taking on Poteet and the Marlins. The Nationals surely have the upper hand here, but in this matchup I don’t think the Marlins will go without a fight. The theme in a lot of these games today seems to trend towards small/medium-sized stacks, and this one is no exception.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Poteet is softer to lefties, so they’ll have the advantage for the 3-4 innings that he’ll be in for. It’s a crapshoot after that, so sticking with lefties or switch-hitters might be best.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Soler, Aguilar/WEndle
GPP note – Adon allows contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can go with either side here. I think some small/medium-sized stacks could do well here.
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Moving on we have Brieske and the Tigers taking on McClanahan and the Rays. I don’t think there needs to be a whole lot said here, as the Rays are in a good spot to take this one without much trouble. McClanahan looks to be a strong all-purpose pitching option, and I’m sure he’ll be a very popular one at that.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3 star plays – Candelario/Baez
GPP note – Tough matchup against McClanahan, so there’s not a whole lot to love here. He does have high xwOBA against lefties, though I doubt that will mean a whole lot here. Use caution if you go here.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco, Diaz/Arozarena
GPP note – Brieske allows some big reverse splits, so don’t be afraid to roll out the righties here. A good spot for some small/medium stacks, as his strikeout rate is fairly low, too.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Padres and Phillies, with Clevinger and Eflin on the mound. Though I could see this one going either way, I think I’m going to give a slight edge to the Padres. I see Clevinger having a stronger outing than Eflin, with San Diego’s offense doing just enough more to hold them off. We’ll see how it goes, but either way I don’t see this game going completely off the rails.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Profar/Kim
GPP note – Eflin allows plenty of contact (especially to lefties) and his strikeout rate is low too, so stack away. He is tough against righties though, so aside from Machado, you may just want to stick with the lefties.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
GPP note – Clevinger is trying to settle in but is allowing some power to lefties, so it’s not off the table to attack him there. I don’t know that big stacks are the way though, unless you think they can get to the bullpen quickly (in which case using the righties could be a good idea as they’re also hitting well).
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Main slate
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with Taillon and the Yankes against Watkins and the Orioles. This one will probably turn into a home run derby (mostly from the Yanks, probably), making it one of the better ways to go today that doesn’t involve Coors.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge/Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo/Gallo, Donaldson/LeMahieu
GPP note – It’s another spot for these guys to do some damage, so stack away however you see fit. Watkins has big reverse splits, so don’t neglect the righties.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins/Santander
GPP note – Not a great matchup here, but a handful of bats are hitting for some power. Some one-offs or mini-stacks aren’t out of the question, as they’ll need to do all they can to try and stay in this game.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have Gilbert and the Mariners taking on Berrios and the Blue Jays. I don’t see this one keeping pace with some of the other games, as Gilbert has the ability to quiet Toronto’s offense, and outside of a few key bats, Seattle’s offense probably won’t go bonkers. There still could be some useful pieces here though, so don’t completely overlook this one.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/France/Suarez
GPP note – Berrios has been allowing plenty of hits and power to both sides of the plate, and his strikeout rate is pretty low. This wouldn’t be a bad place to grab a few lower-owned stacks.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – It’s not the best matchup one could ask for, as Gilbert has been pretty tough and holds himself together. Maybe some smaller stacks, but I don’t see big stacks paying off.
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Urquidy and the Astros take on Eovaldi and the Red Sox next, and like a lot of other games, I just don’t know that large stacks are the answer here. Unless of course, Eovaldi has one of his classic meltdown performances, though so far this year he’s avoided them. Can he keep things going against the Astros?
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve, Bregman/Brantley/Tucker
GPP note – Eovaldi is allowing around .200 ISO to both sides of the plate, so you can attack him from either side. The power upside says you can run one-offs or mini-stacks, and the fact that he does have the random implosion means you can run large stacks here too.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Martinez, Bogaerts
GPP note – Similar idea for these guys, though it’s the righties who have the better statcast matchup against Urquidy. I do think I like the smaller/medium-sized stacks here a little better than large ones, though.
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Moving on we have Strider and the Braves taking on Houser and the Brewers. Both pitchers have been a bit up-and-down (especially Strider), so it would probably be a good idea to take shots with both of these offenses. Sometimes it’s not the hot bats you want to chase, it’s the questionable pitching that can wake up even the coldest bat on the roster.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Riley/Olson/Demeritte
GPP note – Houser isn’t allowing a lot of power but he does allow above-average xwOBA to both sides. That means some good contact is being made, but it just needs to be in the batter’s favor. Take some small or medium-sized stacks here in case they’re able to make good on it.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Wong/Tellez/Peterson
GPP note – Strider has been all over the place, so it’s hard to know exactly which way to go here. I do think having exposure here would be a good thing, because a bad outing seems just as likely as a good one, and these guys are hitting righties for plenty of power now.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Brubker and the Pirates will take on Thompson and the Cubs next, and even though both are somewhat inexpensive, I think they’ll hold their own here today. I don’t know if that will translate into a big performance by either one, but I could see both offenses being a bit sleepy.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Vogelbach
GPP note – Thompson doesn’t rack up the fantasy points but he doesn’t really allow a ton to his opponents, either. It’s a pretty meh matchup here, so outside of a few one-offs or something, I can’t get too excited.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Conteras/Suzuki/Wisdom
GPP note – Not a super great spot to attack here either, though Brubaker does allow some decent power to lefties.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Next up we have Detmers and the Angels taking on Hearn and the Rangers. Both pitchers are coming off of good recent outings (a really, really good one from Detmers), but if I had to choose a side, I’ll go with the Angels taking this one. Hearn will have to navigate this lineup carefully, but if he doesn’t, I could see the Angels lighting up the scoreboard.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Ward/Walsh/Rendon
GPP note – Hearn allows plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so this could be a good spot to grab some larger stacks
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Seager
GPP note – Detmers is fresh off a complete game no-hitter, so attacking that kind of momentum might not be the best way to go. Smaller stacks might be okay, but it’s hard to recommend larger ones.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
We get our Coors game next, with Cobb and the Giants taking on Kuhl and the Rockies. It’ll be your standard chalk-fest here, that’s no surprise, but I actually don’t mind taking shots with both pitchers here. I know, it’s always a bit scary doing so, but sometimes you have to be a little scared to win the big bucks.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford, Wade/Pederson
GPP note – Kuhl has held his own but it is Coors, so you can either go with the chalk or fade them in hopes that Kuhl has another strong outing.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Cron, McMahon/Joe
GPP note – Same as above. Coors games have been going off like a pinball machine, but Cobb has been decent himself. You’ll have to decide between eating the chalk or fading them in hopes of a dud.
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Bundy and the Twins taking on Kaprielian and the Athletics. It’s hard to see the Twins not taking this one, seeing as the A’s have scored 3 runs in their last 3 games. However, the Twins sure can drop a dud at a moment’s notice, so this one might turn into a very uninspiring ballgame. Let’s hope that’s not the case for our late night game!
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Polanco/Kepler
GPP note – Kaprielian hasn’t allowed very many hits, but there has been some power in the ones he’s allowed. That points to a one-off or mini-stack situation, preferably with lefties.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Neuse/Kemp
GPP note – Bundy has allowed good power to both sides of the plate, though these guys aren’t hitting all that well. That could go towards helping them bounce back a little, so some exposure here couldn’t hurt, just in case.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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