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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/16:
May 10, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) is taken out by manager Aaron Boone (17) in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta – Carnage Report ranking TBD
- Peralta has really bounced back nicely after a rough start to the season. I don’t love the matchup against Atlanta here, but he has a 30.6% strikeout rate on the season so even if he gives up a HR or two, the strikeouts will be there to make up for it.
- Luis Severino – Carnage Report ranking TBD
- Camden Yards has turned into a pitcher’s park out of nowhere and Severino will be a guy I like in all formats against a weak Orioles team. He has a 25.0% strikeout rate on the season and gives you some nice win and quality start equity.
- Yusei Kikuchi – Carnage Report ranking TBD
- I really like this price tag for Kikuchi and he gets a great matchup against the Mariners at home. The strikeout rate isn’t huge, but 23.7% is more than serviceable at this price tag and gives you some nice win equity as -161 favorites.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Detroit Tigers (+172) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-210)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll start in Tampa Bay where Alex Faedo will get the ball for the Tigers. He hasn’t looked terrible in his first two appearances on the season but if you have other options and are playing the big slate I don’t think we need to get here. That being said, if you’re playing the 2 game early slate that locks slightly before the main slate, he’s certainly in play as a viable SP option. Corey Kluber will start for the Rays and looks like a nice option here against a watered-down Tigers lineup that will likely be without Austin Meadows. Kluber is coming off of a rough start last time out but had at least 43 FanDuel points in two straight games before that.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Kluber is one of the better pitching options on the early slate, but if you want to get some leverage or hedge him a bit, I don’t have a problem getting different.
TBR 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: The Rays look like a very viable stack for this early slate.
Washington Nationals (+184) @ Miami Marlins (-223)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the Nationals as they head down to Miami. He hasn’t been all that great to start the season and only has a 15% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. I just don’t see the upside with him in this spot. Sandy Alcantara will start for the Marlins and looks like a good option at home against a weak Nats team. They come in with an implied run total of just 3.1 runs and it’s not a lineup that scares me. If I had to rank the pitchers on the early slate it would go Alcantara, Kluber, Faedo, and Sanchez.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Alcantara is my top SP option on the early slate.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Jorge Soler, Jesus Aguilar, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: The Marlins and the Rays are my top stacks on the early slate and I think I would have a slight lean to this Marlins team. They bring some nice speed and power upside.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
New York Yankees (-210) @ Baltimore Orioles (+175)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Onto the main slate where Luis Severino and the Yankees will head into Baltimore. Severino is going to be a guy I’ll have some interest in here, Camden Yards has been playing bigger this season, especially to righties, than we’re used to. In past years we would look at Camden and immediately go to the bats, but Severino will look good here in what has shown to be a pitcher’s park and a bad Orioles lineup. Kyle Bradish will start for Baltimore and had a monster game last time out against the Cardinals when he struck out 11 batters. I don’t know if I really want to chase that game here, but if you need a value option at pitcher, I suppose I can get behind it, but this Yankees lineup has plenty of firepower in it.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I will probably have more interest in this Yankees stack than going to Bradish here, they have nearly a 5 implied run total.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: I’ll like Severino quite a bit here, so just one-offs from Baltimore.
Seattle Mariners (+135) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-161)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Chris Flexen will take the mound for Seattle as they head into Toronto. I can’t say this is a spot I want to get much Flexen honestly, this Blue Jays lineup is never one that I look to stream pitching against. Flexen hasn’t been all that great either, I think we can do better on a big slate. Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Jays and will look like a serviceable option at the very least. This Seattle lineup doesn’t scare me off and Kikuchi’s price tag looks awesome for the form he comes in with. He looks like a nice SP2 option on DraftKings and if you really need to spend down on FanDuel to get up to a stack, I like him over there as well.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Kikuchi than anything, he looks like a nice SP2 option in all formats.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: I like this Jays stack quite a bit, but man I wish they had more firepower in this lineup past the four spot.
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Houston Astros (+105) @ Boston Red Sox (-123)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Jake Odorizzi will get the ball for Houston here and has at least 22 DraftKings points in three straight games after two bad starts against the Angels and Mariners. I think you can make a case for him here but would be more of a GPP option for me due to the matchup. Boston will send Garrett Whitlock to the mound and I’m just going to have to overlook his current ERA because he looks nice here, but I can’t play him against this Houston lineup in Fenway. Houston is one of those teams that I’ve got to feel really good about my pitcher if I’m playing one against them, and that’s not the case with Whitlock.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: The Astros look really nice here and we know this Houston bullpen is a little shakey.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Trevor Stroy, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: I don’t mind this Boston stack in GPPs, Odorizzi isn’t a guy that I’m going to run from.
St. Louis Cardinals (+102) @ New York Mets (-121)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Miles Mikolas will bring his 1.49 ERA into this one and obviously has been in great form to start the season. I always have a hard time using him as a pitching option due to his strikeout upside, he has just an 18% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and is probably more of a cash game option than anything else. Trevor Williams will start for the Mets and has not been good to start the season, I can’t go to him on a big slate.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: This Cardinals team is much better against lefties, but Williams is weak enough for me to have some interest in the Cards here.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Mikolas is great at limiting walks and hard contact, two things that I look to when stacking a team, so I won’t be on the Mets here.
Atlanta Braves (+115) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-134)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We get a nice pitching matchup here between Ian Anderson and Freddy Peralta, who will both look like interesting options. We’ll start with Anderson who hasn’t really shown much of an upside this season with his highest strikeout performance being seven against the Padres earlier in the season. I don’t really have an issue getting to him as an SP option on this slate, but not a priority by any means. Then we get to Freddy Peralta who has looked much better as of late after starting the season really slow. Going back to the start of last season he has a 33% strikeout rate and is a guy I think we can get to in all formats in this one.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: I won’t ever talk you off of a Braves stack due to how good this lineup is, but on a big slate, I think we can do better than targeting Peralta.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Anderson is a guy that can struggle with his command at times so I don’t hate a Brewers stack for tournaments.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) @ Chicago Cubs (-160)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Dillon Peters will start for the Pirates but isn’t stretched out, so we should see Bryse Wilson follow him as a long reliever. I don’t think we need to go to either of these guys on a big slate in Wrigley… it doesn’t appear that the wind will be blowing out or in, but blowing across the field. That being said, keep an eye on the Weather Station as we get closer to lock. Wade Miley will start for the Cubs and is dirt cheap here if you need an absolute punt of an SP2. The matchup is good with the Pirates, but man I don’t know how much I really want to get to him and his 18% strikeout rate.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: I don’t know how much I’ll want to stack the Pirates this season, but I do think a mini-stack could be in play depending on what the wind does against Miley in this one.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras, Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Similar to the Pirates, I think the mini-stack is in play here at the very least.
Los Angeles Angels (-139) @ Texas Rangers (+120)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Noah Syndergaard will get the start against the Rangers in this one and has actually been pretty good to start the season. The strikeout rate hasn’t really been there but he’s still producing nicely and is a guy I think we can go back to here. Jon Gray will get the ball for the Rangers and is completely unplayable at his DraftKings price tag but if you’re desperate and want to go to him on FanDuel you can at a $3k discount. He’s had knee issues this season and this Angels lineup is pretty good compared to recent seasons, I don’t see how we can get to Gray on a big slate like this one.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: I’m not a Jon Gray guy, so this Angels stack will look really nice here.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Probably more of a GPP mini-stack than anything, Syndergaard has done well limiting hard contact this season.
Chicago White Sox (-) @ Kansas City Royals (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
It sounds like Johnny Cueto will get the start for Chicago in this one and gets a great matchup against a Royals lineup that has really struggled to start the season. That being said, it will be his first start of the season but has been getting stretched out in the minors. I don’t think he’s a guy I really want to get to here, let’s use this as a wait-and-see on Cueto. Brad Keller will start for Kansas City and has been pretty boom or bust this season. He does have a sub-3 ERA which is nice to see but he’s coming off of a bad start against the Rangers as well. This White Sox lineup is good enough to where I don’t think we need to go to him on this slate.
CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Keller is no stranger to giving up big games, so no issue with the Sox in this one.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: I think the Royals are more of a mini-stack team than anything here, but I do like how aggressive they are on the bases.
San Francisco Giants (-154) @ Colorado Rockies (+130)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Into Coors Field we go with a game that has nearly a 12-run implied total. Alex Wood will get the start for the Giants who should at least be able to limit the damage against this Rockies lineup. He’s been good as of late and has a sub-30% hard contact rate on the season. I don’t think we want to use Wood as a pitching option but it’s worth noting in terms of stacking the Rockies side. Antonio Senzatela will start for the Rockies which means this Giants stack is going to look great and will be a top stack on the slate, Senzatela is not good by any stretch of the imagination.
SFG 5-star plays: Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson, Mike Yastzremski
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, LaMonte Wade
GPP Note: The Giants are a top stacking option on the slate.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: I won’t like the Rockies nearly as much as the Giants due to the matchup, but anything can happen in Coors.
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Minnesota Twins (-129) @ Oakland Athletics (+110)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Chris Archer will start for the Twins in a great matchup against a team that I’ve been streaming pitchers against all season long. The issue with Archer is he doesn’t have much of an upside and the downside is certainly there. I guess you can make a case for him as an SP2, but I don’t think he’s a guy I’ll end up on here. Zach Logue will get the ball for the Athletics and is coming off of a really nice 7-inning start last time out. He’s shown a nice strikeout ability in the minors and has a 22.2% strikeout rate in his brief MLB career, I don’t think he’s a terrible SP2 option here at home.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: The Twins are fine here and we know young pitchers can struggle at times, so no issue getting to these bats.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sheldon Neuse, Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: I just don’t like this lineup, Laureano back definitely helping, but I’ll leave them as more of a mini-stack team.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+200) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-245)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Madison Bumgarner will start for the Dbacks here and is coming off of a really nice start against the Marlins, but I don’t think we can get to him here against this Dodgers lineup. If you really want to, I won’t talk you off of him, but the Dodgers are a lot like the Jays and Astros where I’m never thrilled to play a pitcher against them. Tony Gonsolin will start for the LA and looks great here, he has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and the Dbacks lineup isn’t anything to be afraid of. He has a 21.1% strikeout rate on the season but I do think that comes up as we get deeper into the season.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte, David Peralta
GPP Note: There are some interesting bats on this side of things, but I do think Gonsolin is a nice pitching option.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy
GPP Note: It’s pretty hard not to like the Dodgers here against Mad Bum.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- San Franciso Giants
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Willson Contreras (DK – $4.7k; FD – $3.8k)
Bryse Wilson will follow Dillon Peters for the Pirates and is a guy that is notorious for giving up home runs in his career, he’s been better this season but had a 1.82 HR/9 last season. Contreras is mashing left-handed pitching on the season with a 0.313 ISO and 0.594 SLG. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dinger predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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