Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/15:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Justin Verlander
- Alek Manoah
- Joe Ryan
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Dodgers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The Phillies have done quite a bit of damage in LA so far. We most likely get some sort of a bullpen game from LA today. Nola is obviously one of the top pitchers but we also know how he can struggle away from home. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game saw double-digit runs again.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (-115)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am not sure why this game is starting so early. In fact, both teams’ starting lineups are out as I finish this. Cano is making his San Diego debut. I like both pitchers more than the offense in this one, especially with Machado getting the day off. A few of the Braves bats might be starting to wake up.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-135)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Greene has been hit hardest by RHBs so far but that’s not something the Pirates can throw at him. Quintana has been decent for PIT and should help neutralize the bats in the Cincy lineup that have started to heat up from the left side. If the price is right, I will use either SP in some builds but won’t feel amazing about it.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (-150)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Ryan was really rough in his last start but I think that had more to do with facing the Astros while they were hot than something within him being off. I expect a bounceback against Cleveland today. McKenzie has filthy stuff but he also can give up a ton of loud contact, especially to RHBs. A stat I found shocking is that Buxton is 0-6 with 6 Ks against McKenzie.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-210) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Astros – Justin Verlander
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Verlander is always near the top of my favorite plays. Corbin is one that I can never figure out at this point. I have no desire to use him against the hot Houston offense. If he could ever get back to pre-World Series Corbin, he’d be a steal at his price points.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. We get more Coors action today as the runs have been plentiful so far in this series. I really like Gomber as an SP, so I might have a couple of shares to be different. I am totally fine with you just focusing on the offenses in this one as CJ Cron is going to end up my Dinger of the Day call.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get another solid pitching match-up in Miami today. I can see a route to where Woodruff is in winning lineups while the Milwaukee bats have success as well. Hernandez has the stuff to be strong, he’s just FAR from consistent with it. Look for Yelich to pop in a lot of optimizers.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-135) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
A’s – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Montas takes on one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball. I am really torn on what to do in this spot as LA has been lethal at the plate. Sandoval is in a very interesting spot as we know the A’s are one of the worst offenses overall in baseball. I really like Ohtani as a one-off GPP play because of his success against Montas.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Austin Davis
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. It looks like a bullpen game from the Red Sox today. That should give a little boost to Texas’ offense but they haven’t exactly been denting the scoreboard. Perez is a guy that we used with confidence recently and he hooked us up. I might go back to him today but not with as much confidence. We know he does a decent job of not getting blown up.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Another bullpen game from the Rays, which isn’t the greatest for Jays stacks. With that said, I love the Jays to take a lead early which then can lead to the weaker side of the Rays bullpen. Manoah is just a stud and I think he’s worth it today, but falling just below Verlander in my spend-up rankings.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .088 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I have been on the Cortes regression side over the last few starts and it hasn’t really happened yet. I can see him continuing his strong season but I also see a CWS lineup that could cause him issues because there are a few bats who hit LHPs well. Kopech has massive upside but the Yankees have hit a few HRs off of him.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I can see this game going one of two ways, we see a 3-2 type final score or we see something like 7-6 by the end of the game. Ray has plenty of upsides but he also has a walk issue and those lead to 2 and 3-run HRs. Carrasco is solid and the SP I would trust the most in this game.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
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San Francisco Giants (-145) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7. Wainwright is making his return from COVID and I am not sure what to expect. We saw SPs struggle last season in their first start after having COVID. He’s been great, for years, when pitching at home. I think this is a time to stack against him. Rodon is just really damn good and the Cards lineup can go cold. I don’t love the match-up for Rodon but I can see a route to a winning performance.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Lamonte Wade
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .184 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I don’t love this game but I also am afraid of not having enough bats from it in my builds. Steele has been decent for the Cubs but the D’Backs have a few guys who can hit LHPs well. Castellanos should start to struggle at some point but will it be against a weak Cubs offense?
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (-140)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I can see a route where Skubal has a strong performance but I can also see the top of the BAL lineup getting to him and knocking him out after 4. I hate considering the Tigers bats because they have been ice cold and terrible for much of the season. Somebody from this game probably ends up in a GPP winning lineup, because baseball.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .054 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – CJ Cron, Colorado Rockies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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