Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a day split in half with plenty of games to look at, though at first glance it reminds me a bit of what we saw yesterday. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a familiar feel with our pitchers as what we had yesterday, with a good number of lower/average totals in most of the games. Seeing that the day is cut in half, we’ll have some good options no matter which slate(s) we’re playing. Also, we do at least have a few more potential gas-cans, so maybe we’ll see a big stack go off today. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick off the day with the Dodgers and Pirates, with what looks to be a bullpen game on both sides. Those usually aren’t the most fun games for DFS purposes, but I don’t think the Dodgers will have much problem doing a few things for us.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner, Freeman
GPP note – The righties will get the early power advantage but overall I wouldn’t be surprised to see things play out the way they did yesterday. They’re mostly all in play, as usual.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Vogelbach
GPP note – I’m not quite sure what the pitching situation will be here but it probably won’t make much of a different, as there aren’t many great options. Probably best to look elsewhere for the most part.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Up next are the Brewers and Reds, with Houser and Gutierrez facing off. This one looks to be pretty heavily favored in way of the Brewers, though I guess that shouldn’t be much of a surprise. For our purposes, I’d probably approach it exactly in that manner.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, Adames
GPP note – Gutierrez gives up plenty to either side of the plate and has a low strikeout rate. Take whoever you want against him.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Pham, Moran
GPP note – Not a great matchup here. They managed a decent number of hits against him last week but only one homer and Houser still got his strikeouts. Maybe a one-off or mini-stack, but probably not much else.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Next up are the Blue Jays and Yankees, and with it another lower total than what we’re used to seeing. However, like yesterday’s outcome, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go the over, as the bats are in a better spot here than they were before.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Gurriel
GPP note – Good reverse splits, which is good since we have a good number of righties with some power here. Good spot for some RvR exposure.
Yankees 5 star plays – Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Donaldson, Stanton
GPP note – Plenty of xwOBA given up to both sides, but far more power to lefties. Both sides are in play here.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Moving on to our next game, we have Civale and the Guardians taking on Velasquez and the White Sox. In a more refreshing 8.5 total, both sides look to be in a spot to have a chance at a few big hits, so we’ll see if they can come through for us.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Good reverse splits here with plenty of power given up, so taking some righties wouldn’t be a bad idea.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson, Abreu
GPP note – Good reverse splits here too, and like Toronto, we have some solid righties to choose from. I expect a homer or two to be given up here.
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Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up are the Marlins and Diamondbacks, with Alcantara and Kelly as the starters. We get a 7.5 total here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one drop a little as the day goes on. Neither offense is very exciting, and both pitchers can command a ballgame, so I expect minimal offensive firepower here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Chisholm/Soler
GPP note – Pretty tough matchup for a mostly unexciting offense, so I can’t recommend much of anything here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Peralta
GPP note – Not much to love here either. I see this one being a dud for both offenses – for our purposes at least.
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
Our next game has another lower total – a 7 this time – and we get Falter and the Phillies facing Gilbert and the Mariners. The visitors certainly have the better offense, but they get a tough matchup here against Gilbert, so I don’t think big stacks will be the flavor of this game, either.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
GPP note – Another tough matchup, Gilbert does give up some power to lefties but generally just a little bit at a time. A mini-stack would be the most I’d want here.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Crawford
GPP note – Righties will get a good matchup for a couple of innings, but after that it’ll just depend on where the bullpen goes. For that reason I’d probably stick to a one-off or mini-stack here, too.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Up next we have Kuhl and the Rockies taking on Cobb and the Giants. Another 7.5 total, I do like the spot the Giants are in, and I could see them carrying most of the load here today. I don’t know that it will be dinger city or anything, but I could see a handful of bats having a strong showing.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Cron
GPP note – This looks to be a bit all-or-nothing, but I think Cobb will hold his own here. Probably best to go with smaller exposure instead of big stacks.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Pederson/Yastrzemski/Crawford
GPP note – Good traditional splits here, so grab a few lefties for some power upside.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Rounding out the early games we have Leiter and the Cubs taking on Martinez and the Padres. This feels like a game where some fantasy goodness will be found, as both sides of it look to be in a decent spot. Maybe some back-and-forth to cap off the afternoon?
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Contreras
GPP note – Martinez can be steady but he seems to give up big hits in spurts, so taking medium/larger stacks wouldn’t be a bad idea in case he has one of his rougher games again.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Kim
GPP note – Bullpen games aren’t the most fun, but the usual bats should have some decent opportunities here. Not a bad idea to take them if others aren’t due to it being a bullpen game.
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Main slate
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Moving on to the main slate, we’ll start with Megill and the Mets taking on Sanchez and the Nationals. Hard to love the Nats here, but it looks like a good spot for us to grab exposure to the Mets’ offense and starter.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Lindor
GPP note – Decent spot for the lefties here; Sanchez will get a few strikeouts but is giving up plenty of power for a dinger or two.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – A tough matchup, the usual Soto/Bell exposure might be about all that’s worth it for us.
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Next up we have McClanahan and the Rays taking on Ohtani and the Angels. As we’ve gotten used to seeing, it’s another 7 total, and I could see this one going the under pretty easily. Both starters offer plenty of upside, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one be one of the lower scoring games on the day.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Franco
GPP note – Another tough matchup in another lower total game, one-offs or smaller stacks would likely be best here.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Ward/Rendon
GPP note – Same exact as above. The big bats here are always worth a look, but big stacks probably are not.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Logue and the Athletics will take on Wentz and the Tigers in our next game, which sports a 7.5 total. This will be the first start of the season for Wentz, though it doesn’t seem that Vegas thinks the A’s will get to him or the bullpen all that much. If both teams quickly go through relief pitchers, this one could be a fantasy dud on all fronts.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Murphy, Bethancourt
GPP note – Hard to know what we’ll get with a pitcher’s debut, but some medium/larger stacks could be in play in case he has some jitters.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – Logue looked good enough against the Twins that I suspect he’ll go 4-5 innings here without giving up a whole lot, so I can’t recommend heavy exposure or anything like that.
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Moving along the slate, we come to Eovaldi and the Red Sox taking on Anderson and the Braves. We get another 7.5 total here, and while both pitchers can be tough at times, they can sure give up some big hits and runs at other times. Might not be a bad game to hedge all the way around.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Martinez, Bogaerts
GPP note – Anderson seems to be very up and down, so having some big stacks here wouldn’t be a bad idea in case he has another bad outing. Even if not, some smaller stacks would be good too, so get creative here.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Olson/Riley, d’Arnaud
GPP note – Eovaldi is no stranger to giving up multiple dingers, and he’s allowing such power to both sides of the plate. Maybe we won’t need big stacks, but small/medium ones would be just fine.
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Up next are the Astros and Twins, with Urquidy and Archer on the hill. This one looks to have some rough weather lurking, so keep your eye on the sky and heed the weather station to see if these starting pitchers will be viable or not.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Altuve/Bregman, Tucker
GPP note – Pretty similar to Atlanta’s matchup, you can attack Archer from either side of the plate for some power upside.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Kepler/Polanco
GPP note – Urquidy doesn’t tend to get shelled too hard, but does allow some power to righties and averages about a homer a game, so don’t forget to take a few one-offs or mini-stacks here.
Baltimore Orioles at St Louis Cardinals
Watkins and the Orioles face Mikolas and the Cardinals next, with another 7.5 total. Most of it stems from the home team, and with how those guys tend to be, I think this could be a good game for them. The O’s not so much, as they have what looks to be the lowest total on the day.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins, Hays
GPP note – Not a great matchup and a sub-3 total, so once again, I think smaller exposure is best here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Edman
GPP note – Watkins allows a lot to righties and has a low strikeout rate, something that should help these bats come to life a bit. Be sure to have some exposure here, since they like to bounce back with a bang.
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
We’ll wrap the day up with my Royals and the Rangers, with Singer and Alexy to start the party. I could see a repeat of yesterday, perhaps worse for us if Singer still has some of his struggles. I could see the Rangers hammering him and the bullpen well into the night, so this will be one of those hammer games that could quickly make or break the slate.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
GPP note – Another pitcher making a debut, this isn’t typically a spot for these bats to shine, so probably not much more than a power bat or two.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien/Miller/Garcia
GPP note – Good traditional splits and Singer can spiral downhill quickly when the hits start to rack up, so any size of stacks are in play here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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