Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s another Tuesday so you know what that means; a fairly large main slate with a few early games sprinkled in. The pitching looks pretty good today too, so this should be a fun day for those of us who like the strikeouts (as long as it’s not our bats collecting them, of course). There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
It’s another one of those days with a bunch of strong pitching options, which is both good and bad for us. Good because we have a lot of pitchers with high ceilings and solid floors, but also bad because we may not get too many options for big stacks with our offenses. Really, at first glance, at least 2/3 of the pitchers today could be in play in one way or another, so it’ll be really important to dig in to see where the highest ceilings may be. Of course, if you don’t have the time to do that, you can always count on us! Be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in today.
Early slates
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
We’ll kick things off with the Tigers and Athletics, with Skubal and Montas as our starters. The trend today seems to be tougher pitching and lower totals, and this game is no different with its 6.5 implied opening. Will it go up from here? Yes, but not by a whole heck of a lot.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez, Meadows
GPP note – Tough matchup against Montas, but he does allow some power to lefties so you can try your luck there. Baez hits well in RvR matchups so he could be of some use, too.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Murphy, Bethancourt
GPP note – Tough matchup here as well, but Skubal isn’t giving up much power outside of a couple of homers to Houston his last start. I think taking a few key bats over full stacks is the answer for both offenses here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up are the Dodgers and Pirates, and we’ll see Gonsolin and Wilson take lead for this one. It’s a shame this one isn’t on the main slate, as we could sure use some of these bats, but alas, it’s an early game. At least we can play them somewhere though, right?
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, Turner/Turner, Bellinger
GPP note – As usual these guys are pretty much all in play. Wilson gives up roughly the same to both sides of the plate, so be sure to attack him with some righties.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Castillo
GPP note – Not so much to love here, but lefties at least have some chance at a good hit or two since Gonsolin does allow power to them.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll round out the early games with the Brewers and Reds, who will start Peralta and Greene. Once again, it’s a shame this game isn’t on the main slate, as the Brewers bats are in a pretty nice spot here and a hitter-friendly ballpark. Can’t say the same for the Reds though, as Peralta can be tough.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, Adames/Taylor
GPP note – Pretty good spot for these guys, Greene allows a ton (including 5 homers to these guys just 5 days ago), so he’s an easy one to target again here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Pham/Drury
GPP note – Not a very good matchup for these guys, but maybe they can carry some momentum from last night. Righties might be the way to go here, as Peralta has pretty strong reverse splits (a little soft to righties though pretty strict on lefties).
Main slate
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
We head on over to the main slate, starting with Kikuchi and the Blue Jays taking on Severino and the Yankees. It’s weird to see these two teams with only a 7 total, but here we are. If one team were to go off, I think I’d vote for the Yankees, but perhaps Kikuchi can handle them again like he did last week.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – Though not a great matchup, Severino has been allowing a homer in a little over half of his starts, so it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to take a few one-offs or mini-stacks against him.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu/Rizzo, Stanton
GPP note – Kikuchi got the upper hand last time but I don’t know that he’s going to do quite that much again. I’d have some big stacks at the ready because when he implodes, he implodes hard (though you could hedge in case he has another big outing against these guys).
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Moving on down the list, we get Carrasco and the Mets taking on Corbin and the Nationals. The Mets should have the advantage here (I say that, but this is baseball after all), as they get the better matchup and Carrasco tends to be more consistent than Corbin, but we’ll see how things unfold.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Nimmo/Escobar/Alonso
GPP note – Corbin is a better target for the righties, but he does allow good contact to lefties. Nimmo is hitting LvL pretty well, so he’s still in play here to go with the righties.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Not the best matchup you could ask for, but Carrasco is allowing some power against lefties. As usual, Soto/Bell are about the only two worth a hard look, but maybe a random lefty could pay off.
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Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Next up we get Whitlock and the Red Sox against Wright and the Braves. We get a 7.5 total here, and if both pitchers can make it through 5-6 innings doing what they’ve been doing, I could see this one going the under. There are certainly a few bats that could pop off a big hit, but nothing about this one screams “big stacks” to me.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Devers, Martinez/Bogaerts
GPP note – Another tough matchup on the day, Wright has just been tough on most everyone, so I can’t recommend more than a one-off or two here.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Olson
GPP note – Whitlock has been strict as well, and his innings seem to be creeping up. We could see a low-scoring ballgame here, so be careful with the big stacks. It’s hard not to one-off Acuna though, he’s getting hotter as he gets into his groove.
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Verlander and the Astros will take on Ryan and the Twins here, and of course, it’s another low total. It’s a 6.5 this time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the under here as well. The real question might be, which of these pitchers could hit double-digit strikeouts for the first time this season? They’ve been pretty close but haven’t quite made it there yet.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Yet another tough matchup, Ryan isn’t giving up big power (granted his last three starts were against weaker offenses, but still), so he might be able to navigate this lineup without giving up any major damage. However, if you think he’s due for some carnage, load ‘em up.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Buxton, Kepler/Polanco
GPP note – You know I’m not going to tell you to stack big against Verlander. Polanco does have a homer against him though, so you could always try your luck there.
Baltimore Orioles at St Louis Cardinals
Our next matchup will feature Bradish and the Orioles taking on Wainwright and the Cardinals. It’s a pretty good spot for the home team, but knowing how they are, it wouldn’t surprise me to them drop a dud in this decent spot on a day like this. Hopefully they’ll come through with some offensive firepower!
Orioles 5 star plays -none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins/Hays
GPP note – Wainwright allows power to lefties but unfortunately there aren’t a lot to choose from. Mullins might make a great one-off, though.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Edman
GPP note – A good spot for these bats, Bradish hasn’t been too strict in his appearances and is allowing plenty of power to both sides of the plate.
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
Up next we get my Royals taking on the Rangers, with Keller and Perez to start. Both starters have been pretty decent, and even though we do get an 8 total here, I think most of the action will either come in small spurts or in the later innings. It’s hard to get excited about a whole lot of fantasy goodness here, but perhaps some small pieces can come through.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Dozier/Merrifield
GPP note – Not a great spot coming in and overall this offense just isn’t that scary. Maybe a one-off or mini-stack, but not much else.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Garcia/Semien
GPP note – Keller hasn’t been bad but his strikeouts are low and he does allow some power, so I think medium-sized stacks could work here. I don’t know that I’d want to go here for all of my big stacks, though.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Quantrill and the Guardians will take on Giolito and the White Sox next, and wouldn’t you know it, but we have another 7.5 total here. There could be some issues with mother nature, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies if you elect to take either of these pitchers (you probably should).
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Another scary matchup to stack against, I doubt Cleveland gets a whole lot here, so be careful. Giolito does allow some power to righties though, so you could run a one-off or mini-stack of righties with probably minimal ownership.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Abreu/Anderson
GPP note – Quantrill has looked pretty sharp but his xwOBA numbers are pretty high, so it should just be a matter of time before somebody gets to him. Maybe it’ll be these bats today?
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Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
We head out west for our next game, with Kluber and the Rays taking on Detmers and the Angels. We get an 8 total here, with each team having 4 a piece, though I think I like the Rays’ chances a little better considering their pitching matchup.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco/Arozarena
GPP note – Good traditional splits here, Detmers allows plenty to righties so grab a few of them, as it’s a little tough to find batters in good matchups today.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
GPP note – Kluber looks to be on the rise so be careful here. Of course, you can always take some Trout/Ohtani (lefties get the better power matchup here).
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
Nola and the Phillies take on Ray and the Mariners next, and it’s hard not to like the visitors in this one, too. Both starters can hold their own, but as the game unwinds, I think the Philly bats will prevail.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber, Castellanos/Rhys
GPP note – Traditional splits are the better way to go here, but don’t neglect the power lefties as they’re hitting LvL just fine.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/France
GPP note – Another unexciting matchup for our stacks, Nola does at least allow some power with all of his strikeouts, so maybe a one-off or mini-stack could come through. Toro and Kelenic could be worth a look as budget options with very little ownership.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
We get two pitchers who are fresh on the year next; Miley and the Cubs take on Clevinger and the Padres. Games like this one are always fun, as we don’t know exactly where either pitcher is right now (especially when one of them is as volatile as Miley can be). Should be an interesting one!
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Happ/Conteras
GPP note – We’re not quite sure where Clevinger is just yet, but it doesn’t seem to be a bad place at all. I’d be careful going too heavy here.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Kim, Hosmer/Croneworth
GPP note – Miley has a tendency to be really good or really bad, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to stack heavy here and hedge with him in some of your other lineups.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
We continue on with Luzardo and the Marlins taking on Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks. We get an 8 total here, but something tells me this one might drop a little as the day goes on. We’ll see how that goes, but I just don’t see this one having a whole lot of excitement coming from the offenses.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Soler
GPP note – Bumgarner isn’t allowing a ton outside of a homer here or there, but with how low his strikeout rate is right now, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run some one-offs or mini-stacks against him.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker
GPP note – Luzardo has allowed some power lately, but overall this is still a tough matchup so I’d be careful using much more than a one-off or mini-stack here. If you really want to go here, use righties.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we wrap up the day with Senzatela and the Rockies against Wood and the Giants. To no surprise, we end the day with a 7 total, most of which comes from the home team. I think that’s a pretty fair representation, though I could see the Giants doing some damage here. Maybe they’ll be the big stack to go off today?
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Joe/Blackmon
GPP note – Wood hasn’t been too bad but definitely allows some big hits, so you can attack him with some small or medium-sized stacks.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford/Yastrzemski, Pederson
GPP note – Senzatela just doesn’t get the strikeouts and allows plenty of contact (even away from Coors), so don’t be afraid to go after him here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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