In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. As these articles are written many hours before lock, the slate could drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our MLB Domination Station as well as our Chalk Board. If you are not a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
May 6, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Manuel Margot (13) follows through on a three-run home run during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports
SP Corbin Burnes $10300
MIL @ ATL
8 games on the MLB main slate for this Saturday. It looks like 8 will turn into 7. The Kansas City vs Baltimore game should get postponed with rain falling all day long. That takes away two of the value pitchers and a lot of bats. This does not exactly flip the slate on its head but one less game means the best plays will have even more ownership. Corbin Burnes leads the way for the pitcher position. He is not in the best matchup but is the most talented pitcher available. Atlanta has the 6th highest strikeout rate, is 19th in wOBA, and 20th in wRC+ against RHPs. These numbers are a bit of a surprise considering how great this Braves offense is. They were the champions last season and won it without Ronald Acuna Jr. Acuna recently returned which should only boost this Braves offense.
Burnes got off to a rough start but since then has had no problems continuing his dominance. The Braves are going to be his toughest test to date this season. He has faced the Cubs twice, Orioles, Pirates, and Giants. That is not going to lower my interest though as he is capable of shutting any team down. He did it in 2021 and is in the same form now as he was back then. Currently, he has a 35.5% strikeout rate which ranks in the top 8th percentile in the league. His cutter and curveball are a deadly combo. He has allowed only a .136 batting average on his cutter and a .074 ba on his curveball. Burnes is the guy today. The other pay-up options do not have the same stuff and also are not in stand-out matchups.
Just missed the cut: Sean Manaea, Kyle Freeland, Zach Davies
2B Ketel Marte $4100
ARI vs COL
Ketel Marte has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season. He is hitting .179 and has been dropped to 6th in the order for his lack of production. Arizona will be facing lefty Kyle Freeland. Marte should be hitting 2nd as he hits much better as a righty than he does as a lefty. Despite his struggles, he still has a 44.1% hard-hit rate. Freeland is allowing a 43.5% hard-hit rate this season. Including his 2021 stats, Freeland allows a 44.5% hard-hit rate to RHBs. He will be pitching in Arizona so he gets away from the dreaded Coors Field. Freeland is an average pitcher at best. Marte could be showing signs of a breakout.
Marte has recorded 6 straight games of at least 7DKpts including 4 games with double-digit fantasy points. This year, Marte has been striking out 24.3% of the time. He is not making the same contact as he did in his past seasons. As the year goes on, Marte is going to see his numbers positively regress. He was an All-Star in 2019. A 28-year-old player does not all of a sudden become bad. Any player who has had this kind of pedigree and is hitting this poorly has better days ahead. The Diamondbacks are implied for 4.4 runs. It is expected to be 101 degrees with 17mph winds blowing out. This is great hitting weather as long as they do not close the roof due to excessive heat.
Just missed the cut: Yandy Diaz, Jared Walsh, Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruff, Christian Walker, Carson Kelly, Yan Gomes
OF Manuel Margot $2900
TB @ SEA
I wish Margot did not homer off of Paul Sewald in the 9th inning. His ownership is going to be through the roof now. Paying up for pitching makes sense on just about every slate. There are not many value plays today. Margot stands out as he bats at the top part of the order against LHPs. The Rays are scheduled to face lefty Marco Gonzales. He is a control pitcher who does not walk a lot of hitters and induces soft contact. Gonzales is allowing a 40.3% hard-hit rate and striking out 16.8% of batters. These numbers are not bad but they are worse than most of his previous seasons. However, he has already allowed 6 home runs in 20 innings.
Margot has a 12.4% K-rate against LHPs. He hit .273 with 4 homers in 187 at-bats against LHPs compared to .239 and 6 homers in 234 at-bats against RHPs. This Rays team as a whole does not strike out a lot against left-handed pitching. They strike out the 6th-least in the league with the 6th-best wRC+. Margot brings a speed element as well. He should be sandwiched between Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, two more speedsters. There is a great chance of some stolen bases tonight. At only $2900, Margot is right in the middle of a team in a great hitting matchup tonight. He allows us to pay up for Burnes and some bats. He absolutely should be considered in Rays stacks.
Just missed the cut: Charlie Blackmon, Randy Arozarena, Jessie Winker, Jordan Luplow
DFS Army VIP Membership
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Baseball tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our MLB DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
Get your MLB DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
