In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Aug 6, 2020; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen against the Houston Astros at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
SP Zac Gallen $7600
ARI @ MIA
There are 6 games on the main slate for this Monday. Most of these games feature low-run totals. Even the pitchers who are not priced high do a good job of limiting hard contact and runs. This should be a bit different of a slate than the ones we have had recently. There is no Coors and Reds value. It makes sense to pay up for both pitching spots as there are some value bats. The expensive stacks are not in the most favorable of matchups today. $7600 is not exactly paying all the way up but Zac Gallen looks to be a chalky option today as an SP2. Gallen is back from injury and in sharp form. He threw 90 pitches last start so he should be off of any sort of limit. Gallen has only allowed 1 run in his 3 starts this year.
He gets an easier matchup today on paper. The Marlins home park is pitcher-friendly. This Miami lineup features a lot of right-handed bats. Jazz Chisholm is dealing with stomach cramping and distress. It is unclear if he will return to the lineup today. Gallen currently ranks in the top 8% of the league in xBA and top 4% in wOBA. His savant page is full of red which is exactly what we want to see. The Marlins are implied for only 3.7 runs. The Diamondbacks are only projected for 3 runs with Pablo Lopez on the mound. It is going to be tough for Gallen to record the win. However, Gallen is too cheap today. Chris Paddack is the other viable SP2 option today. Other than these 2, you most likely are paying up for pitching.
Just missed the cut: Pablo Lopez, Chris Bassitt, Max Fried, Chris Paddack, Jake Odorizzi
2B Jorge Polanco $3800
MIN @ BAL
The Twins are projected for 4.3 runs today which is not bad considering the low run totals across the league today. We are somewhat in a dead ball era where the scores just are not high right now. Things should pick up as we hit summer. Minnesota is taking on Taylor Wells. He is not expected to go deep. Wells pitched 5 innings on 72 pitches in the last start. However, the plan is to keep him under that. Baltimore does not have a good bullpen. They have a good hitter’s park though. They moved the LF fences back but Polanco is a switch hitter and will bat left-handed against Wells. He is projected to hit cleanup. $3800 is just too cheap.
The second base position is a bit weak. The expensive options are not in the best spots. We should be paying up for pitching so paying up for hitters in less than favorable spots is not optimal. DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres face off against Ross Stripling who is limiting hard contact extremely well this season. That takes away one of the expensive options and a value. Jose Altuve is expected to return. That likely means Nico Goodrum goes back to the bench. This leaves Polanco as a standout option in his price range. His teammate, Luis Arraez also has 2B eligibility at $3400. He does not have the same power Polanco has though. Polanco is a much better option.
Just missed the cut: Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yandy Diaz, Yuli Gurriel, Gleyber Torres, Nico Goodrum, Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela
OF Lourdes Gurriel $3900
TOR vs NYY
For how stacked the outfield position usually is, today is horrendous. The players in favorable spots are very expensive like Byron Buxton. The 4-4900 price range is a bit of a wasteland. Going with a value option in one of the OF spots allows us to spend up for both pitching spots. The Blue Jays take on the lefty Jordan Montgomery. Toronto is a right-handed heavy team. They are dealing with some injuries including Teoscar Hernandez. This is still a potent offense without him. Gurriel is the cleanup hitter for the time being. He will have the platoon advantage against Montgomery. Even though Montgomery is not a bad pitcher, facing a powerful lineup with this many righties is no easy task.
Gurriel hits LHPs very well. This year he has a 52.2% hard-hit rate with only a 17% strikeout rate. He hits behind the best Toronto batters including right behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This benefits Gurriel a lot because teams will sometimes walk Vlady with how good of a hitter he is. Additionally, George Springer and Bo Bichette also excel against left-handed pitching. Gurriel should bat with runners on base often in this game. There is a reason the Blue Jays have him protecting Vlady. He is in the top 8% of the league in exit velocity. Toronto and New York games should be very competitive. This series is in Toronto and I expect the Blue Jays to be ready for this one.
Just missed the cut: Max Kepler, Chas McCormick, Josh Lowe, Anthony Santander, Trevor Larnach
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