In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
May 10, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
SP Tarik Skubal $6000
DET vs BAL
We have some baseball before the pair of NBA Game 7s kickoff. This MLB slate is stacked with pitching talent. Picking batters and stacks is a bit difficult. There are several options to choose from at the top. Taking one of Justin Verlander, Brandon Woodruff, or a different 9k+ pitcher, then Tarik Skubal as your SP2 seems optimal today. This gives you enough salary to spend a little bit on bats. Skubal is simply mispriced. He is much more talented than several pitchers who are priced higher than him. From the surface numbers, Elieser Hernandez and Hunter Greene have triple the ERA of Skubal. Their underlying metrics do not do them any favors either. Yet, Skubal is cheaper than them both. He has a terrific matchup against the Baltimore Orioles today at home.
The Orioles were quietly a top 10 team against left-handed pitching last season. This season, they rank 3rd in strikeout % and 4th-worst in wRC+ against LHPs. Lefty Cedric Mullins is a great hitter against lefties but Skubal is tough on LHBs. Ryan Mountcastle, one of Baltimore’s better hitters, was placed on the IL due to a wrist injury a couple of days ago. This Orioles offense is just weak. Skubal was a highly-regarded prospect. He seems to have figured it out as he is off to a great start this season. He has improved in just about every statistical category and kept his strikeout rate relatively the same. Baltimore only is implied for 3.6 runs with the winds blowing slightly in. Skubal has a good shot at the win.
Just missed the cut: Justin Verlander, Brandon Woodruff, Robbie Ray, Jose Quintana
3B Alex Bregman $4900
HOU @ WAS
The Astros are in one of the best spots today. Patrick Corbin is a shell of his former All-Star self. His entire savant page is full of blue. He currently owns a 6.06ERA but his xERA is not much better at 5.31. His hard-hit rate is the highest he has ever given up in his career at 45.3%. Corbin is allowing a .304xBA with a career-high 10.9%BB rate. One positive thing is that he is not allowing much power to LHBs with a .099 ISO. Well, Bregman is a righty. He is 7 for 41 against LHPs so far this season for a .171avg, with 1HR. These numbers are going to drastically improve as the season goes on. Bregman has historically dominated LHPs throughout his career. Combine that with how giving Corbin is to RHBs, Bregman is in for a great day at the plate.
Bregman is once again, at the top of the strikeout (less strikeouts) and walk percentile leaderboards. He is striking out only 12.5% of the time with a 14% BB rate. One noticeable thing so far this year is his launch angle. In his past seasons, he was generally hitting the ball between a 15-19 degree angle. This year, he has a 24.1-degree launch angle. Previously, he was more of a line-drive hitter. This change indicates he is going to hit more home runs. Corbin throws primarily a fastball, sinker, and slider to RHBs. Bregman absolutely crushes fastballs and sinkers. According to savant, out of his 5 highest run values by pitch type, 4 of those come from the fastball and sinker. The 5th being the slider in 2018. This year, he has a xBA of .306 against the slider. Bregman is in the middle of the highest implied run total team for this slate.
Just missed the cut: Jose Altuve, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel, Gleyber Torres, Andres Gimenez, J.D. Davis
OF Max Kepler $3600
MIN vs CLE
The OF position feels pretty weak today. There are some players who are cheaper than they should be but maybe not in the best spots. You should always be stacking but today might be the day to just stack your OFs all from the same team. Someone who looks like a solid one-off is Max Kepler. Triston McKenzie has some great stuff. He has tons of potential but any youngster is bound to have some hiccups along the road. Gio Urshela is off to a slow start. As a result, Max Kepler is the cleanup hitter when the Twins face a right-handed starter. Kepler has been one of the most unlucky hitters in baseball. He currently holds a .241avg, .353wOBA, and .426slg. His expected numbers for these 3 stats are a .308xBA, .410xwOBA, and .574xslg. These numbers all rank in the top 10 percentile.
McKenzie allows a high hard-hit rate at 49.3%. Kepler is a power hitter who holds a 42.4% hard-hit rate. He has lowered his strikeout rate this season to 16.5%. A 4.1 run total is not bad for this slate. Comparing McKenzie to the other pitchers on this slate, he has a higher chance of imploding. The temperature at game time is 71-degrees with winds blowing straight out to center at 11mph. Pitching on the road for a young player could be difficult. All of these could add up and cause some trouble for McKenzie. Kepler’s numbers are too good to be this cheap. If he keeps swinging the ball as he has been, the results will follow. In a week or two, he is going to be 1k more expensive.
Just missed the cut: Bryan Reynolds, Michael Brantley, Jessie Winker, Lourdes Gurriel
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