Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
May 28, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (40) runs to second base after hitting a double against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Brewers & Cubs Over 0.5 1st inning runs
G1 MIL @ CHC
This will be the first of two games between the Brewers and Cubs today. The game one pitching matchup features two rookies making their major league debuts. Ethan Small and Matt Swarmer will not only be dealing with the usual hiccups that come with the big stage, but also the conditions of Wrigley Field. The wind is expected to blow out towards CF at 16mph with 80 degree temps. Wind has a massive effect on Wrigley Field. The Diamondbacks game a few weeks ago had similar conditions and there were 10 home runs hit that game. Milwaukee has a 5.5 implied run total while Chicago has a 5.3 run total. There will be plenty of runs scored this game. It should right away in the 1st as these rookies try to figure out how to operate in the majors.
Willson Contreras O 6fpt / Seiya Suzuki O 6fpt
G1 MIL @ CHC
This correlates with the YRFI line. Suzuki is dealing with an injury but he could have been available off the bench on Sunday. We need to keep an eye on his status today. He could play one and rest the other in a doubleheader. Both he and Contreras have high walk rates. Ethan Small upped his strikeout rate recently but at the expense of control. He walked nearly 10% of hitters in the minors. If Contreras and Suzuki are getting pitches to hit, they should be right in the middle of the scoring. These are some of the best hitting conditions possible. Even if the weather was not this hitter-friendly, these projections are still too low since they are taking on a rookie pitcher. They really should be at 7.5. Ian Happ at 5.5 is another outrageous line.
Aaron Ashby O 4Ks
G2 MIL @ CHC
The winds at Wrigley Field should stay around for game two as well. I do prefer Ashby starting game two as opposed to game one. Small likely will not pitch long. This will force the Brewers to go to their bullpen early. If they use a lot of arms, Ashby will have a longer leash for game two. Ashby does not go deep into games. Since this is a doubleheader, Ashby could pitch the longest he has all season. He has a 26.4% k rate this season. The Cubs strikeout 22.1% of the time against LHPs. Ashby will likely face a watered down Cubs lineup as some starters will be sitting for game two. As long as he is not throwing BP in these conditions, he will need to eat up some innings. The more innings he throws, the more batters he can strikeout.
Dylan Bundy O 4.5Ks
MIN @ DET
Bundy’s numbers might not look great on the surface. However, he has been better than what the numbers say. He has a 4.54 ERA but only a 2.87 xERA. A 21.7% K rate should get it done against Detroit. The Tigers strikeout 24.5% which is 7th most in the league against RHPs. The difference between 7th and 2nd is only 0.7%. Bundy can get wild at times but we are only focused on the strikeouts. He can give up some runs and he still will be fine. Detroit is only implied for 3.8 runs and the winds are blowing in at 13mph. He struck out 6 against the Tigers in his last matchup. This line definitely is too low right now.
Marlins & Rockies Over 0.5 1st inning runs
MIA @ COL
Anytime there is a Coors Field game, I will be interested in the over on the 1st inning run projection as long as it is not two aces pitching. Pablo Lopez has been an ace this season. However, Ryan Feltner is not. The Marlins are getting one of the biggest ballpark upgrades possible going from LoanDepot Park to Coors Field. Jazz Chisholm returned from injury so Miami is getting one of their better bats back in the lineup. The Marlins are implied for 6 runs this game. I expect them to score at least one run in the 1st inning. Colorado can certainly cover this too. Even the better pitchers in the game can struggle in Coors. Lopez gave up 3 homers last start. Someone like Charlie Blackmon could take him deep early.
Just missed the cut: HOU/OAK NRFI, Peterson U 17.5o, F Valdez O 36.5fpt, Yelich G1 O 7.5fpt, Happ O 5.5fpt, G Cooper O 1.5tb, Betts O 1.5tb, Freeman O 1.5tb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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