Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
May 11, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) looks on against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5r+rbi / Over 6.5fpt
NYM vs STL
The New York Mets will be taking on Dakota Hudson and the St Louis Cardinals. Hudson has a 3.06 ERA this season. That might seem good but I expect this number to rise significantly soon. His xERA is 5.43. Hudson is giving up an xBA of .292 with a career-high 46.8% hard-hit rate. He ranks in the bottom 6th percentile of the league in strikeout rate at 13.5% and has a double-digit walk rate. All of these numbers suggest that Hudson will get into trouble. Eventually, those runners on base will come in to score. The Mets rank 6th in wRC+ against RHPs this season. Brandon Nimmo is healthy after fouling a ball of his knee. He gets on base often which will give Lindor RBI chances. Pete Alonso hits behind Lindor with his power bat. I expect this 4 implied run total to rise closer to game time.
J.P. Crawford Under 1.5h+bb
SEA @ BOS
Rich Hill has looked impressive his last few starts. The 42year old is holding LHBs to a .200 avg with 0 homers and 0 walks issued this season. He was able to go 6 innings last outing. If Hill can pitch for that long, Crawford might only see 1 plate appearance after Hill has departed. Crawford started the season hot but has since come back down to earth. This year, he is only batting .205 against LHPs. It seemed like he could hit lefties well last season but that has not been the case so far this year. Rich Hill is very tough against lefties. Both of their walk rates do not stand out. In addition, it is going to be 55 degrees with 5mph winds blowing right to left. These conditions certainly will not help hitters. We do not see many L vs L lines like this one available. Take it while you can.
Carlos Santana Under 1.5h+bb
KC vs CHW
We also do not see many lines like this one. A .122 hitter? The reason why this is available is because of Santana’s insane walk rate. It is currently at 18.6%. Still, it would be difficult for Santana to walk twice today. Vince Velasquez is not a good pitcher but he has a 9.6% walk rate. Hitters do damage by swinging the bat against him, not by drawing a lot of walks. Santana is a switch hitter with drastic spits. He will be hitting lefty against the right-handed Velasquez. Santana is batting .092 against RHPs this season. Yes that is correct. He hit .184 compared to .283 vs LHPs last season. Santana is much better against LHPs. Salvador Perez is on the IL. This Royals offense just is not that great without him. Maybe Velasquez actually pitches well today. It is a much better matchup than the Yankees, in which he gave up 7ER.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5tb
HOU vs TEX
The Houston Astros are in one of the best spots today against Glenn Otto and the Rangers. They have a 5.2 implied run total in 85-degree weather with the winds blowing out towards left-center at 15mph at home. The fantasy point projections are high. I am going with total bases over hits and walks. Alvarez does have a solid walk rate so I think it is fine if you prefer that category. For that though, you need 2 separate plate appearances for it to hit the over. To hit this total bases line, Alvarez can do it with a single at-bat. He is one of the best hitters in baseball. Otto has not been good but he actually has a higher xERA of 7.69 compared to his actual 6.38 ERA. The Astros are in a prime spot so a lot of their players could hit the over. I am going with their best hitter in Alvarez.
Chicago White Sox / Kansas City Royals YRFI (Over 0.5 1st inning runs)
CHW @ KC
Yes, I have Carlos Santana from this game as an under. These two are not mutually exclusive. The White Sox are implied for 5.2 runs today against Carlos Hernandez. Hernandez has a 9.11 ERA right now. That includes one start in Coors Field but his xERA is 6.23. He just has not been good this season. Chicago now has Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn back from injury. This top half of the White Sox lineup is stacked. On the other side, Velasquez continues to be below average. There is no Perez but Whit Merrifield is playing better. Andrew Benintendi continues to swing the bat well. Bobby Witt is finding his footing in the majors. These are hitter-friendly weather conditions. Both teams should be able to put up some runs today.
Just missed the cut: ARI/CHC NRFI, Nimmo O 6.5fpt, Robert O 1.5h+bb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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