MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

Carlos Rodon (52 FD) (30.5 DK)

Chris Bassitt (46 FD) (25.9 DK)

Kevin Gausman (49 FD) (29.1 DK)

Luis Severino (27 FD) (16.5 DK)

Sandy Alcantara (40 FD) (20.1 DK)

Josiah Gray (35 FD) (18.75)

Tony Gonsolin (21 FD) (12 DK)

Patrick Sandoval (58 FD) (35.95 DK)

What an amazing night for our pitchers last night! We had the top 4 fantasy scorers last night in Rodon, Sandoval, Bassitt, and Gausman. Alcantara did very well on both sites too and Josiah Gray was up there. Gonsolin wasn’t great,  but still not awful and Severino has started to heat up. Let’s get back to today and crush again!

Main MLB DFS Slate (8 games)

Jordan Montgomery (7.8k FD, 7.5k DK)

Monty has a good matchup here tonight against the Orioles. Against LHP so far this yea, they have a 29.3% strikeout rate while having an ISO of just .076. He hasn’t been awful this year in 3 starts, but did get roughed up a bit against the Red Sox. Against Baltimore, he went 5 innings allowing just 3 hits, but only struck out 2 hitters. Strikeouts aren’t really his game, but if he can limit the damage he can still score well and get a few strikeouts. He’s a solid price on both sites tonight as well.

Pablo Lopez (10.4k FD, 9.9k DK)

Lopez Was amazing last time out against a tough Cardinals lineup. He went 7 innings striking out 9 Cards against a team that doesn’t strikeout very often. He has done a good job at limiting baserunners too, allowing just 10 hits in 17.1 innings so far this year and only 3 walks. The matchup with the Nationals isn’t too easy, but they are striking out a bit with a 23% strikeout rate against RHP and the bottom of their order has a bunch of strikeouts to be had. They also have an ISO of just .112 against RHP so far this year. He’s done well in all 3 starts and has faced 3 really good offenses so far in STL, PHI, and SFG. I like his upside here though in this one.

Joe Ryan (9.2k FD, 9.6k DK)

Not in love with these prices, but Ryan has looked good so far for the Twins this season. The last 2 starts he’s racked up over 26 DK points and 43 FD points. He has gone 12 innings with 12 K’s oer his last 2 starts. One of which was against Boston and the other against KC who doesn’t normally strikeout much against RHP. DET has a 22.7% strikeout rate against righties so far this year with just a .103 ISO. He’s looked good so far for the Twins after getting the starting nod for them. I like his upside and his stuff here.

Cristian Javier (7.4k DK, 7k DK)

Javier is getting moved to the rotation here and he was pretty good last season when getting starting opportunities. He’s pretty cheap on both sites to make it work too. In his last 2 appearances out of the bullpen he went 3 innings in both. He’s been at over a strikeout per inning out of the bullpen too. I do worry that he will be kept on a pitch count as it is his first start this season. As a starter last year he racked up 58 K’s in just 48.2 innings and had a WHIP just north of 1. He is a guy that doesn’t allow a ton of baserunners. Texas doesn’t have a ton of strikeouts against RHP, but they have an ISO of just .078 so far this year against RHP. There is massive upside if he can go 5+ innings in this one. Just be wary of the limitations with his first start.

Jakob Junis (7.9k FD, 6k DK)

I don’t mind Junis as an SP2 on DK at just 6k, but on FD we have better options at his price range. He has made just 1 appearance for the Giants so far and that was out of the bullpen, but he could start this game tonight against Oakland. Out of the bullpen that game he went 5 innings, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 4 hitters against the Nationals. Oakland is a much better matchup for him in this one too. Coming into this game, OAK has a 24.5% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .212. There is upside for him here on DK, but not like he was a great pitcher with KC, he usually doesn’t strikeout a ton of hitters either. I just like his price and matchup here on DK.

Paul Blackburn (8.2k FD, 8.8k DK)

Don’t love his price or matchup, but the bottom of this Giants order does have some strikeouts in it. They come into this game with a 24.5% strikeout rate against RHP. Blackburn has been an Ace for the A’s rotation this year after they have traded away just about all of their team. He has gone 5 innings in all 3 of his starts so far and has allowed just 3 ER in 15 IP. Not a huge strikeout guy, but we do have a smaller slate here tonight where I think he can be in consideration for tournaments.

MLB DFS Pitcher Rankings for Today

1. Pablo Lopez
2. Jordan Montgomery
3. Cristian Javier
4. Joe Ryan
5. Jakob Junis
6. Paul Blackburn

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Minnesota Twins

DINGER OF THE DAY

Anthony Rizzo

Do I think Rizzo can go HR in 3 straight games?! Making it 5 HR in 3 games? yes, yes I do. Rizzo has a great matchup with Tyler Wells here at home in the Bronx against Baltimore. Wells has been better against LHB over his career, but the Yanks popped off for a few HR last night and I think they can do it again here tonight. Rizzo now has 8 HR on the season after the 3 HR outing last night. 7 of his 8 HRs have come against RHP this season as well as he is hitting .275 against RHP.

 

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