MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
Corbin Burnes: 55 FD, 33.35 DK
Framber Valdez: 4 FD, -3.5 DK
Chris Archer: 22 FD, 11.6 DK
Kyle Gibson: 22 FD, 8.7 DK
Joe Musgrove: 44 FD, 25.25 DK
Robbie Ray: 34 FD, 18.5 DK
Cole Irvin: 24 FD, 12.45 DK
Walker Buehler: 12 FD, 3.9 DK
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Main MLB DFS Slate (10 games)
Luis Severino (9k FD) (FD ONLY PLAY game at 6:40pm)
I like going to Sevvy for GPPs on Fanduel here tonight. DraftKings didn’t change the start time for the slate so this game isn’t on the main slate tonight. Severino has looked good so far in 2 starts after missing so much time the last few seasons with injuries. Has 11 K’s in just 8 innings so far this year and pitched 5 scoreless innings last time out against Toronto. DET comes into this game with a 24.3% strikeout rate against RHP so far this season while hitting just .175 and have a .111 ISO. Severino looks healthy here now and it looks like he’s going to have a decent year.
Erick Fedde (8.3k FD, 8.3k DK)
Fedde has looked pretty good over his first two starts. I like him more on FD here because he has a 1.3 WHIP so far and baserunners lose you points on DK. With FD scoring if he can get a K per inning and allow 2 or fewer runs he will have a good game. Arizona is going to be an offense that we target all season here too. They come into this game with a 29% strikeout rate against RHP so far this year and are hitting only .162 with a wOBA of .273. If Fedde can limit baserunners, he will have another 30+ point FD game.
Apr 15, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) delivers a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Merrill Kelly (9.3k FD, 8k DK)
Having both pitchers in a game isn’t great, but I do like both. I like Kelly a bit more on DraftKings here compared to his Fanduel price. Kelley has seen an uptick in velocity so far this year and so far it’s been helping him. In Spring Training, he struck out 13 hitters in 7 innings and so far this year he has 13 K’s in 9 innings. Normally, Kelly isn’t a big strikeout guy but it looks like he has found something this year so far. Washington’s offense has been doing okay of late, but they still have a 23% strikeout rate against RHP so far this year. I do worry about some of the Washington hitters in this one, but I will use Kelly in GPPs here tonight.
Carlos Rodon (10.8k FD, 10.2k DK)
Rodon has looked brilliant in his first season with the Giants. He has racked up 21 K’s in just 12 innings in his first two starts. We saw a nice pitching matchup last night in the 2nd game of the doubleheader and this one looks to be another good one too with Rodon against Bassitt. I think Rodon has more of the upside here even against a good, on-paper lineup. The Mets haven’t been awful against LHP so far this year and just a 20% strikeout rate, but have a low .108 ISO. Rodon does a great job at limiting baserunners and can rack up strikeouts in a hurry. I do love his upside here to have another good outing in New York.
Chris Bassitt (10.5k FD, 9.6k DK)
Another good pitching matchup in Queens here tonight. Bassitt came over from the A’s in the offseason and has 12 innings with 14 K’s and just 1 ER in his first two starts with the Mets. The Giants are a dangerous team when they are on, but early this year they have a 24% strikeout rate against RHP. Bassitt does a really good job limiting baserunners as he has allowed just 8 runners on base in 2 starts. Getting the QS bonus on Fanduel helps alot and I can see him doing that again here tonight.
Logan Gilbert (9.5k FD, 9.8k DK)
Don’t really love his pricing here tonight, but he has looked good in 2 starts this season against some tough offenses in White Sox and the Twins. Gilbert has 11 K’s in 10 innings so far this year and has a good matchup with the Rangers who are on a big losing streak right now. The Rangers offense hasn’t been striking out a ton against RHP but haven’t really been hitting either. I like Gilbert to get at least 30 FD points tonight and if he can make it to the 6 inning mark and get the QS that will put him close to getting 40 FD points tonight.
TOP STACKS FOR ME: MAIN SLATE
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees (FD only)
- Boston Red Sox
- Kansas City Royals
- Minnesota Twins
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Carlos Rodon
- Chris Bassitt
- Erick Fedde
- Logan Gilbert
- Luis Severino (FD only)
- Merrill Kelly
DINGER OF THE DAY
Bo Bichette
Bichette is 7-14 in his career against Pivetta with 2 doubles, 2 HR, and 5 RBI. He hasn’t really been great so far this year, hitting just .204 on the season with 1 HR and 1 RBI. I do like his chances of turning it around here tonight against Pivetta who has really been struggling through 2 starts this year.
Apr 16, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) takes batting practice against the Oakland Athletics at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
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