MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under the radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

Luis Severino: 21 FD, 9.9 DK
Erick Fedde: 6 FD, -3.9 DK
Merrill Kelly: 40 FD, 21.3 DK
Chris Bassitt: 21 FD, 10.1 DK
Carlos Rodon: 45 FD, 28.25 DK
Logan Gilbert: as of writing this, he is still pitching. over 30 on FD.

Main MLB DFS Slate (6 games) 1:10pm lock

Dylan Cease (10.3k DK, 10.1k DK)

Cease has looked good in his first two starts this year, racking up 16 strikeouts in just 10.2 innings. He faced some pretty decent offenses too in those starts. He has a tough matchup against the Guardians here who have started the year off pretty well. No one on the Guardians roster has much history with him though. CLE is also a team not striking out much of late either against RHP. They have started this year off hot too. I don’t mind using Cease for GPPs here tonight given his recent upside, but the matchup is very hard in this one this afternoon.

Joe Ryan (8.2k FD, 9.3k DK)

Ryan is a good young prospect for the Twins and has a matchup against the Royals here tonight. KC doesn’t strikeout much, but they are hitting just .223 with a .127 ISO against RHP so far this season. In his early career, he’s fared better on the road for the Twins, limiting hitters to a .167 wOBA and has a 1.50 ERA. Granted, he doesn’t have many innings in his career yet. His FB has life, and he has a high swing and miss rate with the FB, he really relies on his fastball and if he doesn’t command it, he may struggle here. His slider is his main secondary pitch though that he had a 35% swing and miss rate. Ryan has upside here in this matchup against the Royals.

Zach Plesac (8.5k FD, 8.3k DK)

Plesac has been okay this year, but he’s not going to rack up the strikeouts. One thing I noticed about the White Sox is they don’t K much, don’t walk much and are hitting under .200 against RHP so far this season. They have just a .124 ISO too against RHP with a .257 wOBA. The concern I do have is that the White Sox have good numbers against him in his career going 33-115. The one thing that I do like is he does have a 26% strikeout rate against the CWS roster.

Jordan Montgomery (7.8k FD, 6.9k DK)

Really like the value here for Monty against the Tigers. Only 5 hitters have history with him, but he does have 14 strikeouts against them in 38 ABs. Montgomery looked better in his 2nd start against the Orioles, but did struggle against the Red Sox in his first start. DET isn’t a bad pitchers park either in this one and he was better in his road start this year. Last season he wasn’t bad on the road either, but was a little better at home. He is really good against lefties, and allows more of his HR and runs against RHB. The Yanks will need a good outing from him here to save their bullpen.

Kevin Guasman (9.9k FD, 8.9k DK)

Gausman is a better play on FD I believe tonight with the amount of baserunners he allows. The Sox have a 28% strikeout rate against him so there is some upside. He was better in his last start against the Yankees than he was against Texas in his first start this year. He had a great year with the Giants last season and will look to keep that going here. Gausman was able to rack up 9 strikeouts against the Yankees over 5.2 innings last time out. Last year, on the road Gausman was a bit better, with a 2.33 ERA and .214 batting average against him with a .273 wOBA allowed. He threw more innings on the road, but was well over a strikeout per inning. I do see his upside here if he can get around the top part of the Red Sox lineup.

Paul Blackburn (7.6k FD, 8.6k DK)

Blackburn has looked pretty good in his first couple of starts this season for the Athletics. He has a good matchup here with the Orioles too. Baltimore comes into this game with a 26% strikeout rate while having a .196 average and .088 ISO and .275 wOBA against RHP. He’s starting this year looking like he’s going to have a breakout year for the A’s after they traded away most of their roster. He has 10 K’s in 10 innings so far this year and has been lights out against RHB. Baltimore is a team we will be targeting pitchers against this year.

MLB DFS Pitcher Rankings for Today

1. Joe Ryan
2. Dylan Cease
3. Kevin Guasman
4. Jordan Montgomery
5. Paul Blackburn
6. Zach Plesac

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. Washington Nationals
2. Minnesota Twins
3. New York Yankees
4. New York Mets
5. Toronto Blue Jays

DINGER OF THE DAY

Brandon Belt 

Belt has a good matchup with Carrasco here tonight. He has 4 home runs so far this season and Carrasco. He’s looked good to start this season, but Belt hits RHP very well and I don’t think Carrasco’s early-season success will continue here today against the Giants.

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