MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
MAIN
Yu Darvish: GROSS, negative both sites.
Luis Garcia: 15 FD, 8.6 DK
Alex Cobb: 45 FD, 27.65 DK
Dakota Hudson: 15 FD, 8 DK
Patrick Sandoval: 30 FD, 17.4 DK
Jesus Luzardo: 48 FD, 31.45 DK
Darvish was just completely terrible, but Cobb, Sandoval, and Luzardo were amazing last night and some of my favorite options on the slate. Overall, not a bad night here.
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Main MLB DFS Slate (9 games)
Max Scherzer (11k FD, 10.1k DK
Scherzer didn’t have an awful first start with the Mets last week. He has some really good numbers against the Phillies hitters too. They are hitting just .140 against him with a 41.3% strikeout rate. I know he’s expensive, but he’s one o those guys who can go deep into games and rack up the strikeouts. Early on this year, over the first week the Phillies have a 28% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .213.
Aaron Nola (10.5k FD, 9.7k DK)
Small discount from Scherzer in what looks to be a very good pitcher’s duel in Philly tonight. We all know the amazing home splits for Nola over his career and he’s just simply a better pitcher at home. The Mets team in their career have just a .194 batting average against him. One guy I worry about a lot is Pete Alonso who is 10-29 with 2 doubles and 3 HR against Nola. But also has 8 K’s. Nola against this Mets team has a 33.8% strikeout rate in his career. I like him more for GPPs tonight.
Framber Valdez (10k FD, 7.2k DK)
Valdez had a great opening start for the Astros and now gets a rather easy matchup against Arizona here. He logged 6.2 innings with 6 K’s in his first start of the season this year. Outside of Marte, this Arizona offense still doesn’t worry me and I will be using pitchers against them nearly all season. Small sample, but ARI is hitting just .111 against LHP so far this year. Valdez has electric stuff and can really get guys out.
Apr 7, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws a pitch in the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Sean Manaea (9.6k FD, 8.3k DK)
This play depends really on the lineup that SFG rolls out. Right now, it looks like they will have all RHB in the lineup. Manaea struggled at times last year against righties. He had a brilliant first start and rode a no-hitter through 7 innings striking out 7 hitters. Granted that was a much better lineup than this Giants team. We saw them destroy Darvish last night too. There is some worry here for me, but I don’t mind getting some exposure if you are going to MME this afternoon.
Logan Webb (9.3k FD, 9k DK)
Webb was really good last season at home in San Francisco. This matchup outside of a few hitters isn’t an awful one. I’m not a big fan of his price, but I do like how he can go deep into games. Last season at home, he had under a 2 ERA while limiting hitters to a .248 wOBA and .213 batting average. HE was really good against RHB, allowing just a .251 wOBA last season too. If he can limit the few lefties in the Padres lineup, he could have an efficient night against.
Nathan Eovaldi (8.5k FD, 8.2k DK)
Eovaldi didn’t have an awful first start against the Yankees but this matchup with the Tigers is a little better. The Tigers lineup added some good pieces this year, but there are still guys who strikeout a good amount. Eovaldi is actually a little better against LHB which DET has a few of in their lineup usually. I do think Detroit is going to be a good surprise this year with their offense this season. I still think that he has upside to get about a K per inning here. Eovaldi was able to strike out 7 hitters against the Yankees last time out too, so the K’s are there. Early on this year against RHP, the Tigers have a 24% strikeout rate while hitting just .176.
Kyle Hendricks (8.1k FD, 6.6k DK)
LOVE LOVE LOVE this price on DraftKings this afternoon. Just 6.6k in this matchup against the Pirates?! THey have a couple hitters that are good, but overall Hendricks usually pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground. He makes for a wonderful SP2 over on DK at such a cheap price. The big surprise to me was that he was able to strikeout 7 hitters in his opening day start against the Brewers. PIT lineup isn’t all that good either and I expect Hendricks to have another good game here.
Nick Lodolo (6.1k FD, 6k DK)
Lodolo is going to be making his MLB debut here today against the Guardians. This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, but I like the promise on this kid. Last season across AA and AAA for CIN he racked up a 39.3% K rate in AA and 35.7% K rate in AAA. Another good thing about him is he didn’t walk many hitters and had over a 53% groundball rate in the minors. Throwing from the left side, he can touch the mid-90s on his fastball that has some sink to it, producing those groundballs. He also throws a good slider and sometimes a changeup. He can locate his pitches which is huge. It’s not an easy matchup, but sometimes rookies can have good debuts against good offenses because the other team has nothing to really go off of. I don’t mind taking this risk in GPPs this afternoon.
TOP STACKS FOR ME THIS MAIN SLATE
- Atlanta Braves
- Boston Red Sox
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Houston Astros
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Max Scherzer
- Framber Valdez (CORE SP on DK)
- Aaron Nola
- Kyle Hendricks (CORE SP2 on DK)
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Logan Webb
- Sean Manaea
- Nick Lodolo
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