MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under the radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

 

Main MLB DFS Slate (11 games)

We have some weather issues it looks like for tonight’s main slate, so we need to keep an eye on some of that in case there is a mid-game delay or anything else.

Sandy Alcantara (9.5k FD, 9.4k DK)

Alcantara has looked really good in 3 starts so far this year. He has gone more innings each start and was able to shut down a good Cardinals team last time out with 8 innings of shutout baseball. This game does have WEATHER CONCERNS though. If there’s a delay where he throws a few innings and then can’t come back out it will really crush. Know the risk here. Alcantara has been good against lefties this year too, limiting them to just a .224 wOBA so far. I like his upside if the game plays through clean. GPP ONLY WITH WEATHER CONCERNS.

Josiah Gray (9k FD, 8.4k DK)

Another guy in the game with weather troubles. Same goes for Gray as I said for Alcantara. If we play clean, I think this can be a good pitchers duel. Gray has also looked good through 3 starts. He did struggle in his first start against the Mets, but to be expected. He still racked up 5 K’s in 4 innings. He had a 5 IP shutout against the Braves and racked up 8 K’s in 5.1 innings against the Dbacks. The Marlins have a 23.7% strikeout rate against RHP so far this season. Gray likely won’t go deep into this game, but if he can rack up the K’s like he has been, he could hit 30 FD points. GPP ONLY 

Luis Severino (8.3k FD, 9.2k DK)

Severino hasn’t looked too bad since coming back after not throwing for 2 years. He has a decent price here on Fanduel tonight, but I’m not a fan of his DK price. Another weather concern game here too. The Yanks have struggled against Baltimore so far this year,  but now at home I think they take this series. Severino has looked better overall. The issue here is he may still be limited to about 5 innings. BAL comes into this game with the 7th highest strikeout rate against RHP so far this season, just under 25%. GPP ONLY

Kevin Gausman (10.2k FD, 8.7k DK)

Love his price on DraftKings here tonight. Gausman shut down the Sox last time out, striking out 8 over 8 innings and allowing just 1 ER. He has been good through 3 starts with his new club. Hits are going to be an issue for him, but he does a good job limiting the runners to come in to score. BOS lineup really isn’t that great right now. If they roll out the lineup the same as last night, the bottom 4 of this order should be fine for strikeouts and the Red Sox only have 1 guy hitting over .300. If they roll out another lineup like that I really like his upside here. I typically don’t like throwing a starter after they just faced the same team, but the lineup hasn’t really worried me that much this season.

Chris Bassitt (9.9k FD, 9.8k DK)

Bassitt struggled last time out against the Giants but his first 2 starts were amazing. The good thing is that he’s been able to go 6 innings in every start this year for the Mets. Though the Cardinals don’t strikeout that much against RHP, they are only hitting .222 with an ISO of .089 this year against righties. Bassitt does a good job of limiting baserunners and has been good in 3 starts this year so far.

Patrick Sandoval (8.8k FD, 8.1k DK)

Sandoval has yet to allow a run this year for the Angels and has looked good in 2 starts. He faced Houston in his last start too, a team that really can hit against lefties. He has struggled to go more than 4 innings which is a concern, but is getting over a strikeout per inning. The Guardians are a great offense, but did struggle against the Yankees in their last series. They come into this game with just a .105 ISO against LHP so far this year and are hitting just .222. I wish Sandoval would go at least 5 innings to put him in line for a win, but if he can get over 30 FD points tonight he could make room for other good hiters.

Tony Gonsolin (7.8k FD, 8.2k DK)
Gonsolin gets a nice matchup tonight against the Diamondbacks. He finally was able to go deeper into his last game against the Braves where he went 6 innings. ARI comes into this game striking out the most against RHP in the league to start the season. The concern here is that Roberts doesn’t let him go that deep into this game. I do like the matchup and his upside. He won’t WOW you with strikeouts, but since ARI is striking out a lot, he could have more than 3 K’s in this one.

Carlos Rodon (11.1k FD, 10.1k DK)

Love Rodon here in this matchup against the A’s. In 3 starts this year, he has thrown 17 innings and racked up 29 strikeouts. Oakland has a 27.5% strikeout rate against LHP so far this season and really aren’t hitting much. Rodon is the clear top option on the slate here tonight and on a site like Fanduel, don’t worry about it, play him in your cash games.

MLB DFS Pitcher Rankings for Today

1. Carlos Rodon
2. Chris Bassitt
3. Kevin Gausman
4. Luis Severino (watch weather)
5. Sandy Alcantara (watch weather)
6. Josiah Gray (watch weather)
7. Tony Gonsolin
8. Patrick Sandoval

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Kansas City Royals (Kuechel has allowed 18 ER in 3 starts so far)
3. Houston Astros
4. Minnesota Twins
5. San Francisco Giants

DINGER OF THE DAY

Tim Anderson

Anderson has just 2 HR so far this season, but has a good matchup with Daniel Lynch of the Royals. Anderson is 6-8 with a HR and 2 doubles against LHP so far this season with 0 strikeouts. Lynch has allowed a .419 wOBA and 3 HR against righties so far this year in just 10 innings of work. Over his career, RHB have hit very well against him and he has allowed 12 HR to righties, which accumulates to 1.6 HR/9. I like the upside Anderson brings to the table here in such a good matchup.

 

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