MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
Sorry for the few days off! Had the family visiting this weekend. But I am back today for tonight’s breakdown!
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Main MLB DFS Slate (10 games)
Corbin Burnes (10.8k FD, 10.5k DK)
I know he’s expensive, but the matchup is there for him against the Pirates. Burnes had a wonderful start his last time out after struggling in his season debut against the Cubs. Over the first couple weeks of the season, the Pirates have a 24.9% strikeout rate against RHP with an ISO of just .117. They are more of a team that had been hitting singles and stringing them together early on. Nop one on this Pirates team has much ABs against Burnes, so I’m not really going to look much a BvP in this one. This is his first start at home this year and he was pretty solid at home last year. His road numbers did look better last year, but his first start at home this year I think he will try to dazzle the home fans.
Framber Valdez (9.5k FD, 10.2k DK)
Not a big fan of the pricing here for Valdez, but the Angles look like they are going to be without Trout for a bit after getting hit in the hard. Valdez had a bad 2nd start against Arizona, but he went 6.2 innings with 6 K’s against the Angels in his first start. Outside of Ohtani, not much from this lineup worries me much. Valdez won’t go too deep into this game, but the matchup is there tonight, especially if Trout doesn’t play tonight.
Chris Archer (7.3k FD, 5.4k DK)
Very cheap option in for both websites. He makes for a really nice SP2 on DraftKings here tonight at just 5.4k. He doesn’t have an easy matchup with the Royals as they don’t strikeout much against RHP. The one thing I do like is they are hitting just .214 with an ISO of .095 against RHP so far this season. Archer was limited in his first start of the season after coming to ST late, but still went 4 innings against a very tough Dodgers team and struck out 3. If he can even go 5 innings here with 3-4 K’s he will easily pay off his salary tonight.
Apr 14, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) is greeted in the dugout after being replaced during the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Gibson (8.3k FD, 6.6k DK)
I know we don’t normally like using guys in Coors, but Gibson interests me here tonight. I do think PHI should get the win here tonight against Freeland too. Gibson had a tough outing last time out against the Marlins and will be looking for a bounce-back start here tonight. COL offense with Blackmon, Bryant, Cron, and Joe is dangerous, especially at home but Gibson has the ability to keep the ball in the yard and get a few strikeouts. He is striking out over a batter per inning so far this year and looks like he is in store for a good season. He has been getting GB to righties in two starts this year and will need to keep the ball on the ground here in Colorado tonight.
Robbie Ray (9.9k FD, 9.8k DK)
I like Ray for GPPs here tonight. He has elite strikeout upside in this one against the Rangers. With the additions of Semien and Seager they are a more dangerous team against lefties. Seager for a lefty hit’s LHP pretty well. Outside of the top 4 hitters for the Rangers, the bottom half of the order for them doesn’t worry me too much. Ray struggled last time out against the White Sox, but man Chicago always hits LHP well and they continued it here. Good pitching ballpark to be in at home in Seattle now and I think he has a bounce back game here tonight.
Cole Irvin (7.1k FD, 6.3k DK)
The A’s are going to be an offense that people will pick on all season, but they have some pitching options that will be viable at times. We saw the Orioles get bamboozled by Nester Cortes Sunday where he struck out 12 hitters. Irvin isn’t a big strikeout guy, and if he can limit the HR he allows he could have another good game here. He hasn’t been great, b ut hasn’t been too awful either. His price is solid on DraftKings here as an SP2 in GPPs tonight. Baltimore so far this season has the highest strikeout rate against LHP at 33.1% while hitting just .215 with an ISO of .077. If he can keep the ball in the yard, then he should have a good game here tonight.
Joe Musgrove (11k FD, 8.6k DK)
Man I love this price on Draftkings here. Not a big fan on Fanduel, but it can work out with expensive pitching. he has a good matchup against the Reds here tonight too at home. I believe that he will be able to get the win here with Sanmartin starting for the Reds. Musgrove has pitched against a bad offense and a really good offense so far this year and has racked up 14 K’s in just 12.2 innings. CIN comes into this game with a 28.1% strikeout rate against RHP so far this season I believe Musgrove is worth the price tag and the safety for him is great against the Reds.
Walker Buehler (9.7k FD, 10.7k DK)
Buehler hasn’t looked too great in 2 starts so far for the Dodgers this year but has been respectable. I’m not a big fan of the pricing here in this one, but I do think he can go 6 innings here. The Braves offense is dangerous, but they haven’t had much success against Buehler in the past. Their roster is just 10-58 against Buehler with a 32.7% strikeout rate. Early on this season against RHP, the Braves have a 25.2% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .224. I do see the upside for Buehler for GPPs tonight.
TOP STACKS FOR ME: MAIN SLATE
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- San Diego Padres
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Joe Musgrove (CORE ON DK)
- Framber Valdez
- Corbin Burnes
- Kyle Gibson
- Robbie Ray
- Walker Buehler
- Chris Archer
- Cole Irvin
DINGER OF THE DAY
Apr 16, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) hits a home run during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Xander Bogaerts.
He seems to see Kikuchi well. He is 3-6 against him in his career with 2 HR and 4 RBI. So far this year, Bogaerts is 7-17 so far at home this year with 2 doubles and a HR. Bogaerts is still playing everyday SS for the Red Sox, at least for this year. I like him to hit a homer against Kikuchi in this game tonight after back to back 3 hit games against MIN.
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