MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
Shohei Ohtani: 8 FD, 1.5 DK
Walker Buehler: 23 FD, 11.95 DK
Joe Musgrove: 48 FD, 28.6 DK
Kyle Gibson: 20 FD, 9.7 DK
Charlie Morton: 15 FD, 2.9 DK
Struggled yesterday here, only had 3 guys over 20 FD points and really only Musgrove was good on DraftKings last night. Missed out on some guys, but that will happen.
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Main MLB DFS Slate (11 games)
Carlos Rodon (10.1k FD, 9.8k DK)
Look, I know this is a very tough matchup here tonight. The Guardians are absolutely on fire right now and demolishing all pitching. Pitching with the White Sox, I thought he would have had some more numbers against their roster. The guys who do have ABs against him though, have a 27% strikeout rate against Rodon. After an amazing season last year, Rodon started his Giants career with a 12 strikeout outing in just 5 innings against Miami. Granted, much harder matchup here. If he can get around Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Franmil Reyes, I think he will have a solid game. Last season, Rodon was REALLY good against RHB, limiting righties to a .175 average with a .244 wOBA. He had a 35.5% strikeout rate against righties too. The upside for Rodon is there.
Dylan Cease (9.7k FD, 10.2k DK)
Don’t like this DK price here tonight for what it’s worth. The Rays got embarrassed by the A’s this week too. Cease was great in his first start of the season, striking out 8 hitters in 5 innings. Last year, Cease was much better at home than on the road and this start is at home here tonight. He limited hitters to just a .205 average with a .289 wOBA last year at home, while racking up a 32.3% strikeout rate. He did allow 12 HR at home last year though and TB does have some power. Overall, I like his GPP upside in this one if he can duplicate his first start here.
Apr 9, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (16) reacts to getting his twelfth strikeout of the game against the Miami Marlins during the fifth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
Brad Keller (9.4k FD, 7k DK)
I don’t mind his price on DraftKings here tonight, but it’s a little too rich for my blood on Fanduel. Keller was good in a tough matchup in his first start and was able to get 5 K’s over 6 innings. Keller isn’t going to rack up the strikeouts either as he only had 49 K’s in 55 innings at home last year. He did struggle a lot of last year too, but a good first start is a good way to begin the season. DET had a pretty good series against the Red Sox, but coming into this game they are hitting .194 with an ISO of .127 against RHP to start the season.
Jordan Montgomery (8.4k FD, 8.8k DK)
Monty left his first start of the season after getting hit by a comebacker in his season debut against Boston. This matchup against the Orioles isn’t an awful one, but they have shown that they can hit lefties. He doesn’t have great numbers against the Orioles though. But it looks like he’s good to go in this game here. Baltimore will roll out all righties in the lineup here and the concern is that his knee flares up again and he only goes a couple innings here. Early on in the season, Baltimore has a 35% strikeout rate against LHP in limited ABs, but have just a .104 ISO so far. Montgomery wasn’t awful against righties last year but still allowed 15 HR. Yankee pitching has been fairly good so far this year, but their bullpen has thrown a ton of innings. I think there is some upside with Monty, but there’s also a risk. GPP ONLY.
German Marquez (8.2k FD, 7.9k DK)
The sites finally realized that Marquez is better at home than the road. Which normally isn’t the case for pitchers at Coors field. Last year, Marquez allowed just a .214 batting average against with a .278 wOBA, while having just a 3.67 ERA. The Cubs likely will roll out 3 lefties in their lineup and he’s been better against RHB in his career. I think that he will be lower owned here and was able to throw 7 innings against the Dodgers allowing just 1 run. GPP ONLY
Tony Gonsolin (7.1k FD, 8.4k DK)
Like his price more on Fanduel than DraftKings here tonight. He wasn’t terrible in his first start against the Rockies in a tough environment but only went 3 innings. He should be fresh here to go at least 5 innings in this one against the Reds. Early on in the season, the Reds are 2nd in the league with a 28.7% strikeout rate against RHP, while hitting just .178 and have an ISO of .123 with a wOBA of .251. Gonsolin and the Dodgers staff is hard to trust to go deep into games with Roberts as their manager though. There is risk here and I won’t be playing him on DraftKings tonight for that price. FD GPP ONLY.
TOP STACKS FOR ME: MAIN SLATE
- San Diego Padres
- New York Yankees
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Dodgers
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Carlos Rodon
- Dylan Cease
- Brad Keller
- German Marquez
- Jordan Montgomery
- Tony Gonsolin
DINGER OF THE DAY
Mar 12, 2019; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) is congratulated by left fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) after Judge hit a two run home run during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Giancarlo Stanton: Stanton is 4-9 with 2 doubles and a HR against Lyles in his career and just 3 strikeouts. Last season with Texas, Lyles allowed 24 Homeruns against Right-Handed hitters as opposed to 14 against lefties. Over the last few seasons, Lyles has been struggling more against righties as well. Stanton rarely hits the ball softly and last season he hit 25 of his 35 HR against RHP. He does strike out more against righties but had a .249 ISO and 36.6% FB rate against RHP with a hard-hit rate of 41.7% last season. I also think that Aaron Judge hits a home run in this one, with my sleeper pick being Gleyber Torres as he has DESTROYED the Orioles over his career too. Yes, all Yankee players, but I’m sticking with a theme here as one of my top stacks. Torres is hitting .352 with an OPS of 1.121 with 16 HR in his career against the O’s.Win More Money!! DFS Army Cheatsheets Put You On the Plays!
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