MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
Max Scherzer: 39 FD, 22.45 DK
Aaron Nola: 16 FD, 6.7 DK
Framber Valdez: 15 FD, 5.9 DK
Sean Manaea: 34 FD, 17.9 DK
Logan Webb: 52 FD, 31.6 DK
Nathan Eovaldi: 33 FD, 20.25 DK
Kyle Hendricks: 5 FD, -2.3 DK
Nick Lodolo: 9 FD, -0.2 DK
Not great for DraftKings core play Hendricks last night, but besides missing out on Kershaw, we had 4 of the highest pitchers on the slate yesterday. Missed on a few, which will always happen, but if you had the guys that scored high you likely did well! On to today!
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Main MLB DFS Slate (8 games)
Shohei Ohtani (10.8k FD, 7.8k DK)
Ohtani looked pretty good in his first start of the season, while hit batting isn’t there quite yet. He went 4.2 innings, but a positive is he only walked 1 hitter and had 9 strikeouts. This matchup with TEX is a bit better than the one he had with the Astros in his first start as well. Ohtani has some really good stuff and should have a good bounce back game here. So far this season, Texas isn’t striking out too much against RHP, but they are hitting just .214 with an ISO of .087. There is an upside for Ohtani here tonight. He’s a much better DraftKings price here tonight too.
Walker Buehler (10.5k FD, 9.7k DK)
Buehler had a pretty solid start in his first outing in Coors field. Now, he’s back home and faces the Reds. Early on this year, the Reds are striking out 31.1% to right-handed pitching, top in the MLB. They are hitting just .176 with an ISO of .118. In their careers, CIN is hitting just .208 against Buehler with a 33.3% strikeout rate. Buehler was really good at home last year, over 123 innings he racked up 130 strikeouts while allowing hitters to just a .192 average and .257 wOBA. I really like his upside for strikeouts here tonight.
Joe Musgrove (10.3k FD, 7.6k DK)
Tough matchup here for Musgrove against the Braves, but I do like his price over on DraftKings more for GPPs. He looked sharp in his debut this year striking out 8 hitters over 6 innings against Arizona. This obviously is a much harder matchup than the Diamondbacks, but there is still upside. Watching that game yesterday against the Nationals, ATL was getting fooled by Gray. Now they have to travel across the country to play the Padres in San Diego tonight. ATL comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against RHP this season too. They have their power bats, like Olson, Albies, Riley, Ozuna, but some of these guys hit better against lefties. If Musgrove can get around the top of the lineup, the bottom of the lineup has struggled.
Apr 9, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (44) throws a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Gibson (9.8k FD, 8.8k DK)
Love what Gibson showed in his first start of the 2022 season. He racked up 10 strikeouts over 7 innings against Oakland and has another favorable matchup against the Marlins here tonight. He’s a reasonable price on both sites as well so I Don’t mind going to him on either site. He had his struggles on the road last year, but being in a nice pitcher’s ballpark and the matchup against Miami, I don’t see why he won’t score well again tonight. It took him just 82 pitches to get through 7 innings in his season debut so he should be fresh and ready to go. In April last year he was really good too. The 10 K’s aren’t going to happen often for him as he’s not usually a big strikeout pitcher, but if he can get 6-7 here he will score well again.
Charlie Morton (9k FD, 9.3k DK)
Morton had a pretty solid first start against the Reds, going 5.1 innings and striking out 5. He allowed just 2 ER in the start. I can see him getting a little more stretched out in his 2nd start of the season. The Padres are a good offense, but if he can get around Machado and Cronenworth I think he will have a rather good outing here. Morton has shown that he can rack up strikeouts in a hurry with his sweeping breaking ball and usually keeps the ball on the ground. He was really good on the road last season for Atlanta, pitching to a 3.06 ERA and allowing just a .185 BAA and .253 wOBA while racking up 99 K’s in 88 innings. He racked up a 27.7% strikeout rate on the road last season, but his walks were up a little. If he’s able to continue his 50% groundball rate, he should fare well here against SD.
TOP STACKS FOR ME: MAIN SLATE
- Chicago Cubs
- Washington Nationals
- Detroit Tigers
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Colorado Rockies
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Kyle Gibson
- Charlie Morton
- Walker Buehler
- Shohei Ohtani
- Joe Musgrove
DINGER OF THE DAY
Aaron Judge: Judge hit his first HR of the season last night and now gets a matchup tonight with Kevin Gausman. In his career against Gausman, he is 8-17 with 2 doubles and 3 HR while racking up 6 RBI. I like the chances of him hitting another homerun tonight in what could be a slugfest.
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