MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Saturday, April 30th Early and Main Slates

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

1. Nestor Cortes (27 FD) (14.5 DK
2. Alex Wood (9 FD) (1.9 DK)
3. Frankie Montas (18 FD) (7.9 DK)
4. Dylan Bundy (21 FD) (10.1 DK)
5. Ian Anderson (37 FD) (20.5 DK)
6. Kyle Hendricks (1 FD) (-4.3 DK)
7. Adam Wainwright (25 FD) (10.1 DK)
8. Noah Syndergaard (scratched due to illness)

   Not the best day for pitching last night unfortunately. But we are back at it today with TONS of games. Read all the way to the end because I broke down my EARLY and MAIN slate pitchers!

Early MLB DFS Slate (8 games)

**Note: This section is going to include ALL the games from 2:15pm est up until the MAIN slate at 7pm. I will have the MAIN slate breakdown later in the article!!! DK EARLY lock is 2:15 PM est, FD early is 4:05 PM est

 

Miles Mikolas (9.2k FD, 7.9k DK) (DK ONLY)

Mikolas has been actually really good this season for the Cardinals. In 4 starts this year, 3 of them have gone for over 18 DK points and 3 over 30 FD points. He has a good matchup with the Diamondbacks tonight too. He does a good job at limiting baserunners too and has seen an increase in velo this year which is helping him limit the damage. Arizona has the 3rd highest strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and aren’t really hitting much. They did pretty good against Waino last night, but Mikolas has done very well this year and I like picking him here.

Merrill Kelly (9k FD, 7k DK) (DK ONLY)

I like Kelly on the early DraftKings slate here. He’s cheap and has done well. He has 3 of his 4 starts this year over 19 DK points against some pretty good offenses. Kelly has also seen an uptick in velo this year and he’s been pitching better. He’s gone 6 innings in the last 2 starts and he has allowed just over a baserunner per inning. If he could allow a couple less hits, he would be solid. This offense isn’t bad, but over the last 2 weeks they aren’t hitting for much power. On Fanduel, where hits don’t matter that’s fine, but their batting average isn’t bad against RHP. I like Kelly here on DK more than FD as I don’t advise playing the very early on fanduel.

Jose Berrios (8.1k FD, 6.8k DK) (DK ONLY)

Uhm, DraftKings, what are you doing here? 6.8k is way too cheap for Berrios even in this matchup. After a really rough start against the Rangers starting the year and a tough one against the Yanks, he has bounced back with 2 good starts against Boston. He allowed just 3 ER in the 2 starts against Boston while striking out 10 hitters. Houston has the 6th highest K% to RHP in the last 2 weeks at 25.4%. Their offense is still dangerous, so I don’t advise playing him in cash, but he’s way too cheap on this DraftKings early slate not to consider for tournaments.

Logan Webb (10.2k FD, 10k DK)

LOVE LOVE LOVE Logan Webb here tonight. He’s been getting better and better for the Giants and I do really like this matchup with Washington here. Last time out against Washington he went 6.2 innings with 6 strikeouts. Washington comes into this game with virtually no power but aren’t striking out a ton either. Webb is also ELITE at home in San Fran, so he’s one of my favorite options on this early slate tonight. In his career at home he owns a 2.91 ERA while striking out just over a batter per inning, he also has allowed half the HR at home compared to the road and a .280 wOBA.

Shane Bieber (10.4k FD, 8.9k DK)

DraftKings pricing really sucks here. Bieber should not be 8.9k here on the early slate. Yes, I get he’s had only one start over 20 DK points, but damn he’s got a matchup with Oakland here. Oakland comes into this game with the 4th highest strikeout rate against RHP with 26.1% strikeout rate while hitting just .205 and under a .100 ISO. Bieber has allowed just a .077 avg against left-handed hitters which is insane. He has a 25% strikeout rate to both sides of the plate too and the OAK lineup has plenty of strikeouts in their lineup.

Shane McClanahan (9.3k FD, 9.6k DK)

McClanahan has been really good for TB and one of the only guys who isn’t used as an opener. MIN has a 21.3% strikeout rate only to LHP, but they also have been struggling lately. He has over 26 DK points in his last 2 starts and exactly 46 FD points in his last 2 starts. He has 16 strikeouts in his last 2 starts over 13 innings. I do like his upside here against Minnesota with them scuffling a little.

Robbie Ray (9.5k FD) FD ONLY

Ray has a good matchup with the Marlins here tonight. They come into this game with a 24.6% strikeout rate against LHP in the last 2 weeks. They have been a bit better against lefties usually, but Ray can be an elite pitcher. His strikeouts have been down so far this year, but the matchup is good here where I don’t mind using him for GPPs. He’s gone at least 6 innings in every start this year, so a QS isn’t out of the question.

Sean Manaea (9.6k FD) FD ONLY

Manaea has been good for the Padres this year outside of his last start against the Dodgers. He did have great starts against ARi, SF, and CIN though. All of which aren’t as dangerous as the Pirates. PIT against LHP are only striking out 21.5% of the time, but have just a .211 average and .092 ISO. I think Manaea bounces back in this one tonight and has a really good game against the PIrates on the road here. Fanduel only though.

PITCHER RANKINGS EARLY

1. Sean Manaea (FD only)
2. Shane Bieber
3. Logan Webb
4. Robbie Ray (FD ONLY)
5. Miles Mikolas (DK)
6. Merrill Kelly (DK)
7. Shane McClanahan (could be bumped up after Ray)
8. Jose BerriosI will be finishing this article in the morning for the MAIN slate on Fanduel and DraftKings but this will give you a good start for the early slate!!!

 

Top MLB Stacks: Early DFS Slate

1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. San Diego Padres
3. Houston Astros
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Los Angeles Angels

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (7 games)

Nathan Eovaldi (8.5k FD, 8.7k DK)
Eovaldi has a good matchup here against Baltimore. He’s been pretty solid all season for Boston and one of their better starters. Despite allowing a few runs here and there, he’s been racking up the strikeouts and last start was able to go 7 innings against Toronto. BAL as a team has just a .186 bating average against him in their careers with a 29% strikeout rate. BAL comes into this game with a 24% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and are just not a good baseball team. He should be able to go 6+ innings here and rack up 6-7 strikeouts.

Gerrit Cole (9.8k FD, 10k DK)

Cole finally looked like his old self in his last start against the Guardians. He went 6.2 innings while striking out 9 hitters. His command was there and he wasn’t allowing many hits. The HR ball is always the big issue with him though. Good thing KC isn’t a massive power hitting team right now. KC’s roster has just 65 ABs against him in their careers but are hitting just .174 but again, he’s allowed 4 HR. If he can keep the ball in the yard he should be good here. The Royals against RHP in the last 2 weeks have a 23% strikeout rate and are hitting just .210.

Eric Lauer (9.2k FD, 9.6k DK)

Lauer ended last year strong and has started this year really strong. After going just 4.1 innings in his season debut against Baltimore, he’s gone 6 innings in his next 2 starts, racking up 18 strikeouts. He had 13 K’s last time out against the Phillies too. This matchup with the Cubs isn’t an awful one either. CHC comes into this game with only a 22.4% strikeout rate aginst lefties in the last 2 weeks, but outside of Suzuki not many guys worry me here. I like how he’s been throwing the last 2 starts and see his upside here.

Chad Kuhl (7.7k FD, 7.9k DK)

Many people won’t be on Kuhl here because he’s throwing in Coors, but get used to it kid, you’re on the Rockies now. He’s not a guy that is going to rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he’s already looked better this year than he did last year for the Pirates. He’s gone 6 innings in his last 2 starts, allowing just 6 hits and 3 walks. A QS against the poor Reds isn’t out of the question here even in Coors. The Reds offense is just really bad right now and I can see him throwing 5-6 innings with 4 strikeouts tonight.

Clayton Kershaw (10.5k FD, 10.3k DK)

kershaw has come down to earth after that amazing first start where he had a perfect game through 7 innings then got pulled. He has a good matchup here with Detroit too at home in the late game tonight. He had a good start against the tough Padres offense but only went 5 innings. After that first start of 7 innings he’s only gone 5 IP in the last 2 starts each. DET isn’t striking out all that much against LHP of late, but they aren’t really hitting for much power either. If he can limit the little dinky singles he should have another good game here.

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Nathan Eovaldi
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Eric Lauer
5. Chad Kuhl

TOP STACKS FOR MAIN SLATE

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. New York Yankees
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Atlanta Braves

DINGER OF THE DAY

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber is struggling at the plate right now and has not hit a HR in 7 games, but the matchup with Walker is a good one here. Over his career, he has just 10 ABs against Walker, but has hit 5 HR driving in 7 runs. I think he hits one out tonight based on the great success of power against Walker.

 

**will also be posted in the morning**

 

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