MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
Matt is mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
I wasn’t able to write over the weekend, but I’m back here on this Monday for the nice looking MLB DFS slate!
Early MLB DFS Slate (4 Games)
Dakota Hudson (9.5k FD, 8.1k DK)
We may have a PPD in this game this afternoon, so please keep an eye out for the weather in this. Obviously if Mark (our DFS Army weather guy) thinks this game has a high chance of PPD or in-game delay, I will be off Hudson as a pitcher this afternoon. I do like his price a little more on DK here though today. Hudson was limited last year to just 1 start, but he does have a prime matchup against the Pirates here this afternoon if this game in fact does play.
Aaron Civale (8.9k FD, 9.5k DK)
Prefer him on Fanduel here this afternoon in the small slate. KC over the weekend hit just .193. The thing here is don’t expect him to rack up the strikeouts, he isn’t a very big strikeout pitcher and the Royals don’t usually strike out too much. If he can keep the ball on the ground here, he has the ability to go deeper into games than some others on the slate. I do see the upside in him getting the Quality Start on Fanduel here today.
Adrian Houser (7.8k FD, 8.9k DK)
Another guy that is better for Fanduel this afternoon. A good matchup with Baltimore here puts Houser in a good spot today. Baltimore struck out a lot over the weekend in their first weekend here and hit just .204 in the series against the Rays. Brewers starters have struggled to start the year, but this is a good series to win here against Baltimore.
Austin Gomber (7.5k FD, 5.7k DK)
Solid SP2 option on DK here being so cheap against the Rangers. Both starters in this game I think are viable on DK for their cheap prices today. Both starters can get lit up though as Colorado and Texas can both hit left-handed pitching. Gomber was one of those guys who struggled on the road and was actually really good at Coors last season. He flashed some upside with strikeouts and getting wins for the Rockies. The first couple weeks of the season are always hard to gauge how starters are going to pitch and how deep they will go into games. A lot of the first few weeks is just feel and gut plays.
Mar 21, 2022; Scottsdale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco pitcher Alex Wood (57) on the mound in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during spring training at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Early Slate
- Dakota Hudson
- Aaron Civale
- Adrian Houser
- Austin Gomber
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Main MLB DFS Slate (7 games)
Luis Patino (6.8k FD, 7.8k DK)
Decent value option here for the first game of the slate tonight. I don’t typically like using a ton of TB pitchers because they don’t usually go deep into games. The reason I like him here is I will be attacking this A’s offense with pitchers most of the season. They traded away all of their good guys or just simply didn’t re-sign anyone. Patino looked good last year at times and had a 33% K rate in the minors with a 22% K rate in the MLB. He’s a cheap option that lets you stack up nice offenses tonight.
Ranger Suarez (9.6k FD, 8.9k DK)
Suarez was great last year at home, posting a 1.51 ERA while allowing hitters to hit just .186 with a .213 wOBA. He was at a strikeout per inning as well. He was a bright spot for the Phillies last year. Lefties have virtually no chance at hitting him for much, but righties had a little more success against him. The one thing I LOVE about him, is he only allowed 4 total home runs in over 100 innings pitched last season. This Mets offense looks much better on paper than it has in the past, but they are still the Mets. One guy that worries me the most in Starling Marte. He can get on base and get to 3rd before you even blink, plus he’s great against LHP. I like Suarez more for GPPs here tonight.
Huascar Ynoa (8.6k FD, 8.6k DK)
Ynoa was great at home last season, posting a 2.88 ERA while striking out 63 hitters in just 50 innings. He also allowed just a .257 wOBA to hitters at home. This Washington offense has some power in it, and Juan Soto is a force at the plate, but if he can navigate the top of their lineup he should have a good start here. Over 32 ABs against Ynoah, the Nationals offense is just 5-32 with 10 strikeouts. There is strikeout upside here for Ynoah and he’s one of my favorite options on the slate tonight.
Dylan Bundy (6.3k FD, 5.6k DK)
Bundy is a solid SP2 on DK here tonight and a fine GPP option on Fanduel. He’s very cheap on both websites here tonight where I have some interest in him. We all know he really struggles with the HR ball. Seattles offense doesn’t worry me all that much though. In the months of March/April he recorded a 27.4% strikeout rate for LAA last season, but HR will always be his problem. There are a couple guys from the Mariners offense that I don’t mind here for GPP purposes though as the homeruns are there for them.
Elieser Hernandez (7.9k FD, 7.5k DK)
Hernandez has a tough-ish matchup here against the Angels, but if he can navigate Trout and Ohtani I want some exposure in one of the later games of the night. Hernandez has dealt with injuries so far in his young career, but when he’s healthy, he shows some promising stuff. He doesn’t walk many hitters and can get a good amount of strikeouts. He struck out 29.7% of righties last season and just 18.5% against lefties. If LAA rolls out a good amount of RHB in this game tonight, I like him more here with the upside that he can bring to the table.
Alex Wood (9.2k FD, 9.2k DK)
Wood doesn’t have the easiest matchup, but it is cold out in San Fran and this is a nice pitcher’s ballpark. Without Tatis in the lineup, SD isn’t as scary against lefties. Wood was pretty good at home last season, limiting hitters to just a .265 wOBA and .204 average. As long as Wood can stay healthy this season, I do think he’s in store for a really good year here. Only 5 hitters for the Padres have any AB’s against Wood, and they have 9 K’s in 30 ABs.
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Huascar Ynoa
- Alex Wood
- Luis Patino
- Ranger Suarez
- Elieser Hernandez
- Dylan Bundy
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