Opening Day is here (for some teams it’s their 2nd game!) MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. MDell (Matt) walks you through key stats, trends, and fantasy scoring capable of going deep, shutting down offenses, and bringing big value to your fantasy baseball lineups.
Matt is mostly a Fanduel player, so the content will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, pricing for both Fanduel and DraftKings will be included. Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and he will mention that when necessary. For an even deeper dive into MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Corbin Burnes: 18 FD, 9.05 DK
Shohei Ohtani: 38 FD, 23.5 DK
Shane Bieber: 23 FD, 14.7 DK
Yu Darvish: 31 FDm 17.1 DK
Max Fried: 17 FD, 6.75 DK
Adam Wainwright: 46 FD, 26.5 DK
Patrick Corbin: 18 FD, 8.2 DK
Not the best starting night. I had made Waino CORE on Draftkings for DFS Army members, and that paid off. Ohtani had a rather good game though, but some top studs did not pitch well on Opening Day. We have split slate here today though with early games starting at 1 and main slate starting at 7pm est. I will cover both next!
Early MLB DFS Slate (5 Games)
Aaron Nola (10.3k FD, 9k DK):
Nola is in a good spot here making his first start of the season. Oakland traded away just about half of their team and lost their big power hitters. Nola had a down year last year, but still was able to rack up 223 strikeouts over 180.2 innings. Nola has always been a guy who pitches better at home for the Phillies and he has such a prime matchup here today for his first start of the season. He did well in April last year, limiting hitters to just a .218 average while giving up a .256 wOBA. I love his upside here as he looks to bounce back this year.
Brandon Woodruff (10.2k FD, 9.5k DK)
Woodruff last year was great all around. He was actually a better pitcher against lefties in terms of average and wOBA. Righties still didn’t fare that well against him. The Cubs showed yesterday that they do have a decent offense and Burnes wasn’t too sharp. I expect Woodruff to get a few more strikeouts here in this one though. His first half of the season last year was outstanding where he allowed a .134 average against and just a .169 wOBA in the month of Aptril, striking out just over a batter per inning.
Lucas Giolito (10k FD, 8.4k DK)
I love the discount we get here on DK for Giolito in this matchup against the Tigers. Last season, Gio allowed way less HR on the road and limited hitters to just a .277 wOBA, while striking out over a hitter per inning. He struggled in the beginning of the year last season, but overall was fairly good all year. This Tigers lineup improved a bit getting Meadows and Baez in the middle of their lineup with Candelario, Schoop and Baddoo who had good seasons for Detroit last year. Gio still has upside here for the White Sox, but I do think there is some risk with the Tigers lineups here. He did struggle against Detroit last season though over 5 starts, which does worry me a little here. DET has some solid BvP against him as well, so there is concern here, but there is also some upside.
Shane McClanahan (8.7k FD, 6.6k DK)
Great value option in my opinion here. McClanahan had a great rookie season with the Rays last year and now will start on the Rays opening day today. He racked up a 27% strikeout rate last season in 123 innings pitched. Went a solid 4-0 against Baltimore last year, striking out 27 hitters over 23 innings pitched. He has a 28.9% strikeout rate against the current roster of Baltimore and they will likely run some lefties out there tonight. Always our biggest worry with Rays pitchers is that they don’t go too deep into games.
Apr 3, 2022; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning during spring training at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Frankie Montas (9.2k FD, 7.8k DK)
I like Montas as a nice GPP option today. He has strikeout stuff and was great for Oakland last year. Oakland traded away so many pieces and I don’t expect them to win many games this year, but if Montas can keep his solid year last year, he likely will get traded to a contender this season. He was good on the roast last year in 15 starts, he struck out 94 hitters in 87 innings. Not much history to go with against him as only 4 PHI hitters have any PA’s against him. If he can keep the ball on the ground here this afternoon he could have a solid start here.
Gerrit Cole (10.8k FD, 9.8k DK)
Only really like Cole for GPP purposes. Boston did pretty well against him last season and Cole had somewhat of a down year last year. He does own a 33% strikeout rate against Boston hitters over their careers in 163 ABs. HR were a big issue for him last year and the Sox have hit 11 HR against him over their careers. The strikeouts will be there, but he needs to limit the home run ball here for his price to pay off the salary.
Eduardo Rodriguez (8k FD, 7.1k DK)
I think getting out of Boston is going to help E-Rod this year. He now is pitching in a more pitcher friendly ballpark in Detroit too. They have added some nice pieces on their offense too where they should be able to win some games. He was better on the road last season for the Sox too. This is a much bigger ballpark than Boston too. He wasn’t bad in ST either, racking up 19 K’s in 17 innings of work. He is usually a great source of strikeouts too. Chicago has some righties that I think can give him some trouble, but if he can keep the ball in the park and get about a K per inning, he could really pay off here.
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Early Slate
- Aaron Nola
- Brandon Woodruff
- Shane McClanhan (CORE DK SP2 on Early slate)
- Gerrit Cole
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Frankie Montas
- Lucas Giolito
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Main MLB DFS Slate (5 games)
Jose Berrios (9.3k FD, 8.9k DK)
There are going to be strikeouts to be made here against the Rangers here. They did get better on offense getting Corey Seager and Marcus Semien and still have the power presence with Adolis Garcia too. The other thing is, outside of Seager and Semien, they have a good amount of strikeouts in their lineup still. Berrios wasn’t too great during the Spring, but he will get the Opening Day nod for the Blue Jays here in a fairly decent matchup. If he can navigate the top of the order here for Texas he should have a good game here tonight.
Charlie Morton (9k FD, 8.4k DK)
Morton is a pitcher that needs to keep the ball on the ground to have success. He looks to be healthy from his injury in the World Series last year and will be good to go to make his start here tonight. Racked up over a strikeout per inning last year with the Rays/Braves as well. He was more of a reverse splits pitcher as he was able to limit lefties a little more than righties. He did struggle a little in the early months of the year, but still was able to get more strikeouts than innings in April last season. Another interesting split is he was really good at night compared to his daytime starts. The Reds offense has potential, but I will want to see something from them before really fearing them. They did win last night to spoil the Braves championship runback this year, but that’s why we play 162 games in the MLB.
Sean Manaea (8.8k FD, 9.4k DK)
Got traded from Oakland to the Padres late in the off-season here and has a great matchup to start his SD career against the Diamondbacks. A late surge from Arizona let them win the game last night, but they were shut out for 8 innings last night until the Padres bullpen blew up in the 8th inning. With Oakland last year, he was up over a strikeout per inning but did struggle allowing a good amount of contact against him, giving up a hit per inning for them. He had flashes of great starts last year, and if he can get around Marte I think he will be fine here for the Padres tonight.
Max Scherzer (11k FD, 10.2k DK)
Had his opening day start pushed back one day as he was dealing with a hamstring issue. He did do drills Thursday and is good to go tonight. Facing one of his former teams here tonight too. The Mets have tons of potential and have a great-looking roster for this year but we need to see something from them. Scherzer when on, can rack up strikeouts in a hurry. Facing his former team may have him a little more pumped up for this game. The one thing that does worry me tonight is his price and the fact that the hamstring could tighten up on him early in this game. It’s a risk to take, but I will leave Scherzer for GPPs tonight because of that reason, but be wary he can also score massive points if he can pitch his full workload and rack up the strikeouts.
Reid Detmers (6.8k FD, 6.6k DK)
Good value option on both sites for GPPs here. The matchup with Houston isn’t a great one. He’s been working on a slider with the staff and he has gotten really good with it. Reading his scouting report, he throws 93-95 mph and he has a nice curveball that he will go to in a lot, especially in strikeout situations. He jumped quickly from AA to AAA to the MLB in 2021 where he was racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate down there. He made just 2 starts in AAA before making his MLB debut. Detmers did struggle in the Majors last season, but given his success in AA last year, he has the strikeout stuff, but can struggle with allowing home runs (10 HR in 54 IP last year in AA).
My Personal Rankings for DFS MLB Main Slate
- Charlie Morton
- Sean Manaea
- Jose Berrios
- Max Scherzer
- Reid DetmersWin More Money!! DFS Army Cheatsheets Put You On the Plays!
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