MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

 

Main MLB DFS Slate (13 games)

Dylan Bundy (8.2k FD, 8.3k DK)

Bundy is coming into this start after going 5 innings in each of his 3 starts and pitching very well for the Twins so far this year. The Rays offense isn’t one I typically like to target against RHP, but they have a 26.7% strikeout rate against RHP over the last 2 weeks with just a .114 ISO. Bundy isn’t blowing anyone away so far this year, but he’s putting up respectable numbers. He’s allowed just 10 hits in 15 innings and doesn’t normally walk many hitters. We can expect 4-6 strikeouts here from him and I don’t mind that floor with TB striking out a lot against RHP. GPP ONLY

Noah Syndergaard (8.9k FD, 8k DK)
I like this matchup for Syndergaard here. He was finally able to pick up a few extra strikeouts against the Orioles in his last start. LAA has started off this season very well lately too. The White Sox come into this game with a 22% strikeout rate against RHP, which isn’t that high, but they are hitting just .197 in the last 2 weeks against RHP. Thor hasn’t been racking up the strikeouts yet like he did in his time with the Mets, but he’s been able to go 5+ innings in each start so far and if he can go 5+ again he could have a decent night here.

Ian Anderson (8.7k FD, 8.9k DK)

Anderson struggled a bit in his last game, but was good against the Padres in the start before that. TEX is an offense that I don’t mind taking stabs at here tonight. Their lineup just doesn’t have many guys who are hitting well to start the season. Their projected lineup has just a .256 wOBA against RHP this year at home. In the last 2 weeks, TEX has a 22.1% strikeout rate, which isn’t that high and Anderson isn’t a big strikeout guy. What I do really like is Texas is hitting under .200 against RHP in the last 2 weeks with an ISO of .085.

Nestor Cortes (10k FD, 10k DK)

Cortes has been absolutely brilliant for the Yankees so far this year. His innings are coming up each start and he’s a dude that has pinpoint accuracy and mixes things up to hitters at the plate. The Royals are not hitting very well against lefties over the last 14 days too. They are hitting just .190 with an ISO of .060 against LHP. They are really struggling to start the season and Nasty Nestor has been amazing, I am not a huge fan of the price tag here, but I really like how he’s been pitching so far this year. He’s racked up 20 K’s over his last 2 starts and has walked just 3 hitters all season and allowed 2 ER through 3 starts.

Kyle Hendricks (8.4 FD, 7.4k DK)

Hendricks isn’t a guy that is going to rack up the strikeouts, but in his opening day start this year he tossed 5.1 innings with 7 K’s allowing just 1 ER. He struggled hard in the next start against PIT, but bounced back with 6 K’s in 4.1 innings against TB and threw 7 innings of scoreless ball against PIT. He’s seen MIL a ton over his career as they have 227 ABs against him. He won’t strikeout a ton of guys, but if he can keep the ball down he could have another respectable start. He’s a decent price here if he can hit 30 on FD and around 15 on DK tonight. MIL has the 5th highest K% against RHP over the last 2 weeks at 25.5% too, so he could have another outing similar to his opening day start.

Adam Wainwright (8.5k FD, 9.4k DK)

Not a huge fan of his DraftKings price here tonight, but I do like the matchup a lot with Arizona. He’s struggled a bit after his first start this year and on DK when you lose points for allowing baserunners I’m not really interested. He’s allowed 8 hits in 2 of his last 3 starts and 5 in each of the other two. Losing points for baserunners on DK hurts him here and the price is just not good for me. Arizona’s offense isn’t that great either and they are striking out 26.4% of the time against RHP. This is a clash from the past against Bumgarner though and even though these guys aren’t in their prime anymore this could be a classic game tonight. FD ONLY

Frankie Montas (10.2k FD, 8.1k DK)

I like his DK price more here tonight against the Guardians. Montas has looked really good for the A’s in 4 starts this year. After his rough opening day start, he has allowed just 4 ER over 20 innings, striking out 19 hitters. Thats really where he’s going to be as he doesn’t normally strikeout more than 1 per inning, but this year he’s right about at 1 K per inning so far. This matchup isn’t an easy one, but he has a WHIP under 1 and has settled down of late. I don’t think he’s going to be with the A’s all season this year as I do think they look to trade him near the deadline. CLE against RHP in the last 2 weeks have a 22.8% strikeout rate with an ISO of .138. I do think he has some upside here, but I do like his DK price a bit more tonight. DK ONLY

Alex Wood (9.5k FD, 8.7k DK)

Wood has a good matchup here with the Nationals. At home in a big pitcher’s ballpark too. Washington isn’t striking out much against LHP so far this season, but they aren’t really doing much else either. They have a couple of guys in their lineup that does worry me, but if he can get around Cruz then I don’t really have any issues with using Wood tonight. He should easily be able to get a K per inning here and score well on both sites for a decent price.

MLB DFS Pitcher Rankings for Today

1. Nestor Cortes
2. Alex Wood
3. Frankie Montas
4. Dylan Bundy
5. Ian Anderson
6. Kyle Hendricks
7. Adam Wainwright
8. Noah Syndergaard

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Yankees
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Los Angeles Dodgers

DINGER OF THE DAY

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldy has started this year off with no power, but we know the power he still has in his bat. He had a nice 3-4 game last night with 3 RBI and this matchup against Bum is a pretty good one now. He has faced Bumgarner 71 times over his career and is a career .338 hitter with 3 HR and 14 RBI against him.

 

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