Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- Aaron Nola
- Logan Webb
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Milwaukee Brewers (-170) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. We saw Burnes struggle a bit yesterday with his command. That could happen with a lot of the SPs over the first week of the season. With such a low run total, I have to assume we are going to see cold temps with winds blowing in at Wrigley. If the wind is blowing in, we have to consider both SPs in our player pool. The Brewers’ offense can definitely strike out plenty.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Renfroe has traditionally mashed LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Happ looked extremely confident at the plate against Burnes yesterday.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-170)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Weather forced MLB to move the game to today. I am really interested in seeing what the Yankees run out there for a lineup today. I believe that both SPs are definitely in play on this slate. Cole can give up HRs but he’s also a guy who could strike out 10 right out of the gate. This game also has some interesting BvP spots if you are a believer (I am).
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Devers has 3 HRs in 19 ABs against Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Rizzo is 5 for 9 against Eovaldi with 3 2Bs.
Oakland Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (-180)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I was shocked to see that Nola is getting the opening day start for the Phillies. With that said, over the last 3 years, his ERA at home has been roughly 2 runs better. He’s been known for his extreme home/road splits. We know that this A’s lineup is going to be pretty weak after the moves the team made. This Phillies lineup is going to be extremely dangerous so it will be interesting to see how Montas handles himself amidst all the trade rumors.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: This lineup should be bad much of the season so I am just going to wait and see how they perform.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Harper destroyed every baseball he saw in the spring. He also has 5 career opening day HRs, along with 10 career opening weekend HRs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Much like the A’s above, the Orioles aren’t going to be very dangerous at all this season. I wouldn’t be shocked if Means gets dealt at some point, similar to Montas. McClanahan throws hard but I am really shocked the team decided to ride with their young staff. The Orioles do have a couple of bats that can hit LHPs pretty well, while the Rays have plenty of pop but they do strike out a lot, as well.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Baltimore had a team ISO of .174 against LHPs in 2021.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Arozarena is 6 for 13 with 2 HRs against Means.
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Chicago White Sox (-130) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I personally am not high on Giolito as an “Ace” when it comes to a pitching staff. If you read my AL Central preview, you know that these are the teams that I expect to finish 1-2 in the division. The White Sox are a very trendy pick for a WS trip while I might be a little early on the Tigers hype. Spencer Torkelson makes his MLB debut in this game.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: The White Sox are without Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada today.
DET 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: The Tigers roster has hit .297 across 169 ABs against Giolito in their careers.
New York Mets (-175) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Unfortunately, I believe it’s going to be a long season for the Nationals. After getting beat up by Tylor Megill of all people, they have to face their former ace in Scherzer. As long as Scherzer avoids Soto (he’s extremely hard-headed, so he probably goes after him), I could see something like 5 innings of 8 strike out and 1 run baseball. We do have to worry about a recurrence of a hamstring issue that he has dealt with.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Alonso left last night’s game so pay attention to his status.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Bell and Cruz are a combined 11 for 28 with 4 extra-base hits against Scherzer.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11. Welcome to Coors Field for opening weekend. The Dodgers’ potent lineup gets to head to where the ball just flies. We will want to monitor the weather a bit (from a cold standpoint) as cold air could leave this game a little less exciting than the mid-summer trips to Colorado are. With that said, I think the Dodgers bats are still in a strong spot. Buehler is one of those guys that is an ace but he still gets slept on. He has allowed just 3 HRs in his last 27.1 innings pitched in Colorado.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Will Smith
GPP Note: Shockingly, the Braves roster has just 6 HRs in 188 ABs against Freeland.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Charlie is 17 for 44 with 7 extra-base hits against Buehler.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-185)
Pitchers:
Reds – Reiver Sanmartin
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Reds ruined the Braves home opener yesterday but I just don’t see them taking the 2nd game against Morton today. Sanmartin threw just 4 innings across 2 spring training appearances. I have to assume we see more of a bullpen approach from Cincinnati today. It’s really tough to look at Sanmartin’s numbers from last year (they were great in the majors) because he only faced the Pirates.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Votto is 10 for 33 with 7 walks against Morton.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Albies hit .323 with a team-leading 9 HRs against LHPs in 2021.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Looks like the Angels picked up a pitching change overnight and the line moved to a pick-em. Detmers has a TON of hype but he struggled a lot in his debut season. We saw both offenses struggle last night and I was surprised the Angels didn’t do a bit more against Valdez. Alvarez and Tucker are two guys I love using in LvL match-ups.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: The Astros roster is just 3 for 16 against Detmers.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Trout is 5 for 13 with 3 walks against Odorizzi.
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Opening day in Minnesota was pushed to today after a snowstorm hit the Twin Cities. This game has a TON of hype around it as Correa is making his Twins debut while Julio Rodriguez is making his MLB debut for the Mariners. It’s going to be extremely cold at the first pitch so the offense should be at somewhat of a premium in this one. Ray is the defending AL Cy Young winner so I will be very interested in seeing how he performs with Seattle. Ryan has the look of a future stud and he gets to begin the season with a strong test.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Seattle hit 24 HRs in 18 spring training games.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Correa and Buxton are going to be one of my favorite DFS combos all season long.
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San Diego Padres (-150) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9.5. The Diamondbacks picked up a huge walk-off HR from Seth Beer on opening night. Manaea is making his SD debut in game 2 of the season. I worry about him and the catchers being on the same page to begin the season, so it’s definitely something to pay attention to. Kelly has been dominant against the Padres in his career but it has been with a modest 20-ish% K rate.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Hosmer is 9 for 26 against Kelly in his career.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Carson Kelly had an OPS of 1.018 against LHPs in 2021.
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants (-140)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. I am really excited about this game from a pitching standpoint. Alcantara has a ton of buzz as a potential sleeper Cy Young arm while Webb had a stud like 2021. I am really curious to see if Webb can build on what he was able to accomplish in 2021. The Giants lineup is one that I am curious to see how it comes together without Posey and Bryant.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Wendle and Soler combined to go 20 for 47 in the spring.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Belt is 4 for 8 with 3 extra-base hits and 4 walks against Alcantara.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-175)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9.5. We get to see the trendy WS pick (Blue Jays) take on the team that went on the biggest spending spree this offseason. My biggest thing with the Rangers today is how is Gray going to pitch. He actually had turned himself into a better pitcher at Coors Field than on the road. He takes on an extremely potent lineup but he was really strong during the spring. The Jays need Berrios to step forward slightly and be a true ace for them this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Berrios will give up HRs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr
GPP Note: Springer and Gurriel combined to go 22 for 49 this spring.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Angels
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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