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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 4/30:
Apr 8, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) gets set to pitch against Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw – Carnage Report ranking #1
- It’ll be really hard not to like Kershaw in a matchup with a below-average Tigers offense at home in Dodger Stadium. He has looked great to start the season and is floating around a 30% k rate going back to the start of last season.
- Gerrit Cole – Carnage Report ranking #2
- Cole bounced back nicely last time out against the Guardians and has one of the highest ceilings on the slate due to his strikeout upside. He gets a nice matchup with this Royals offense here as well and will look like one of the top pitching options on the slate.
- Eric Lauer – Carnage Report ranking #5
- Lauer is coming off of one of the best performances of his career with 13 strikeouts against the Phillies. Yes, some of that was aided by the incompetency of Angel Hernandez behind the slate but will get a nice matchup with the Cubs at home in this one.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+145) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-175)
Implied Run Totals:
Diamondbacks – 3.4 IRT
Cardinals – 4.3 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll start in St. Louis where it looks like we should have some sizeable wind blowing out to left field at over 15+ mph. Keep an eye on our Weather Station for updates on how this could impact bats/pitchers, but at first glance, it looks like we should get some exposure to some power bats here. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Dbacks and has been pretty solid this season with a 1.69 ERA thus far. I do like this Cardinals lineup, so he’ll be more of a GPP pitching option, but an option nonetheless. Miles Mikolas will start for the Cards and has also been good this season with at least 18 DraftKings points in three straight games. This is a great matchup for him against a Dbacks team that has an implied run total of just 3.4. He’s not a huge strikeout guy, but someone I like getting to on this early slate.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Mikolas has been good with limiting hard contact and staying out of trouble. Probably not a team I’m stacking here.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: As I mentioned, keep an eye on how much the wind will play a role in this one, but after digging into it more I’m not sure how much I want to target either of these offenses against these pitchers.
Houston Astros (+115) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 4.1 IRT
Blue Jays – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Luis Garcia will get the start for the Astros here, he’s been pretty hit or miss this season and hasn’t gone over 72 pitches in any of his first three starts. He’s probably not a guy that I’ll get a whole lot of against this Toronto offense that comes in with a 4.6 implied run total. Jose Berrios will start for the Jays and has had back-to-back bounce-back performances with at least 16 DraftKings points in each of them. I never really love targeting pitchers against this Astros offense either, but I think you can make a case for him in GPPs at the very least on this slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: I’ll never talk you off of an Astros stack, and Berrios has certainly shown some volatility this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: I do think Garcia is a good pitcher but hasn’t shown it as of late. I like this Jays mini-stack with the potential for a full-stack.
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Los Angeles Angels (+106) @ Chicago White Sox(-125)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 4.4 IRT
White Sox – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
This is another game where we’ll want to watch the Weather Station for updates due to there being rain in the area, especially if you’re wanting to get to either of these pitchers, you’ll want to avoid a delay if at all possible. I’ll operate under the assumption that it plays clean, but make sure to get confirmation before lock. Jose Suarez will get the start for the Angels and probably isn’t a guy I would look to get to here, has just a 20% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season, and this White Sox lineup has some nice bats in it. Speaking of the White Sox, they’ll send Vince Velasquez to the mound and won’t be a guy I look to here either. He has an ERA over 6.00 and has struggled in each of his starts this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Brandon Marsh, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: I think a full Angels stack is firmly in play here if we think this game finishes and is clear of weather.
CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: The White Sox stack will look good as well here against a weak lefty.
Washington Nationals (+188) @ San Francisco Giants (-227)
Implied Run Totals:
Nationals – 3.1 IRT
Giants – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Joan Adon will start for the Nats here and will have his hands full against this Giants lineup that has looked great to start the season. Not to mention, Adon has a slate-high 39% hard contact rate to opposing batters… probably not a guy I’ll get to in this one. Logan Webb, on the other hand, will look like a great pitching option for the Giants against this weak Nats lineup. He bounced back nicely last time out in this spot with 39 FanDuel points and will be one of the top arms on the slate.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Nats here, I’ll like Webb quite a bit.
SFG 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf, Austin Slater
GPP Note: I really want to like the Giants stack here, but woof they need to roll out a better starting lineup than what we have projected right now.
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Cleveland Guardians (-152) @ Oakland Athletics (+130)
Implied Run Totals:
Guardians – 3.6 IRT
Athletics – 3.0 IRT
Rundown:
Shane Bieber is going to be right there with Logan Webb as one of the top pitching options on the slate. I’ve been streaming pitching against the A’s all season long and won’t be stopping here. Bieber has a 32% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and gets a matchup with a brutal A’s lineup, he’ll look like a great option. Cole Irvin will start for the Athletics and hasn’t been all that terrible after a nice game against the Rangers last time out. I don’t know how much interest I’ll have in using him as a pitching option here, but if anything, it keeps me off some of these Guardians bats.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs for me against Irvin, but I do think a mini-stack is in play if you want to go there.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Love Shane Bieber as a pitching option here.
Minnesota Twins (+165) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-195)
Implied Run Totals:
Twins – 3.2 IRT
Rays – 4.5 IRT
Rundown:
I think we can make a case for both pitchers in this one as well, as Chris Archer and Shane McClanahan will square off. Archer hasn’t exactly been great but if you’re looking to jam in an expensive stack you can make a case for him as an SP2 option on DraftKings. I probably wouldn’t go to him on a single pitcher site like FanDuel however. McClanahan will look great here with huge strikeout upside as he’s shown to start the season off. Going back to the start of last season he has around a 29% strikeout rate and gets a great matchup with a Twins team coming in with an implied run total of just 3.2.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: The top of this order is really nice but after Correa, it gets a little sketchy.
TBR 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: I think Archer is useable as a cheap punt option, but the Rays can be sneaky and are always in play as a stacking option.
Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Boston Red Sox (-180) @ Baltimore Orioles (+150)
Implied Run Totals:
Red Sox – 5.0 IRT
Orioles – 3.8 IRT
Rundown:
Onto the main slate! Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball for the Red Sox in a great matchup with this Orioles offense. Eovaldi has at least 15 DraftKings points in each of his first four starts this season and will be a guy we can look to get to in the mid-range in all formats. Spenser Watkins will start for the Orioles and hasn’t been as terrible as you might think. That being said, he’s not a guy we can look to get to… he has just a 13% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and I would expect that ERA regresses in a major way. Boston is one of my favorite stacks on the slate.
BOS 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Love this Boston stack, I expect some regression from Watkins and the Orioles bullpen is not good to back him up.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs from the Orioles for me, I think Eovaldi is useable as a pitching option on this slate.
Atlanta Braves (-113) @ Texas Rangers (-105)
Implied Run Totals:
Braves – 4.7 IRT
Rangers – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Bryce Elder will start for the Braves in this one and got up near the 100-pitch number last time out but hasn’t been all that great to start the season. His hard contact rate is really nice at 28% but he leaves a lot to be desired with a 16% strikeout rate, he’s probably not a guy I’ll look to as a pitching option here. The Rangers will start Dane Dunning who can be sneaky as we saw last time out, that said, I like this Braves lineup, and probably not a team I want to use a questionable pitcher against.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: The Braves are certainly in play as a stacking option here against Dunning. Having Acuna back in the lineup made this team even scarier.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: I think you can make a case for the Rangers as a GPP stack at the very least.
Philadelphia Phillies (+114) @ New York Mets (-132)
Implied Run Totals:
Phillies – 3.6 IRT
Mets – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
Kyle Gibson will start for the Phils here and has been pretty hit or miss this season. He’s probably more of a GPP option tonight against this Mets lineup, but an option nonetheless. The Mets will start Taijuan Walker who is making his first start since coming off of the IL. It sounds like he’ll have his pitch count monitored and likely won’t get over 90 pitches, so probably not a guy I want to use against this Phillies lineup anyway.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: I just love the pop this lineup brings, the upside is clearly there and will be in play as a stack for me.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Similar to the Phillies, I like the upside with this lineup and we’ve seen Gibson get hit around at times this season.
New York Yankees (-220) @ Kansas City Royals (+184)
Implied Run Totals:
Yankees – 4.9 IRT
Royals – 3.3 IRT
Rundown:
Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees here and will look like a great pitching option on this slate after a nice bounce-back game last time out. He struck out nine in 6.2 innings against the Guardians and has a 33% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. He’s an elite option on this slate. The Royals will start Carlos Hernandez who has scored positive fantasy points just once this season… the Yankees will look good here against him.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: I like a full Yankees stack against Hernandez and this Royals bullpen tonight.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bobby Witt Jr.
GPP Note: I’ll have a lot of Gerrit Cole exposure, so the only Royals stacks I’ll have are in hedges.
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Chicago Cubs (+142) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-167)
Implied Run Totals:
Cubs – 3.6 IRT
Brewers – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Justin Steele will get the start for the Cubbies here and pitched well against the Brewers to start the season but hasn’t been so great since. This Brewers lineup is starting to get things going as well and won’t be a pitcher I want to get to here. Eric Lauer will start for the Brewers and is coming off of one of the best starts of his career striking out 13 against the Phillies. He’s looked good to start the season and is a guy I think we can get to against this Cubs lineup as a mid-range option.
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: I think we can do better than a Cubs stack on this slate.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Willy Adames
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Hunter Renfroe, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: I like riding the hot streak with the Brewers as they continue to hit lefties really well.
Cincinnati Reds (+125) @ Colorado Rockies (-143)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 5.1 IRT
Rockies – 6.1 IRT
Rundown:
Onto Coors Field… where DraftKings really messed up the pricing for the Reds in this series. They’re all dirt cheap and will look like great options in cash games against Chad Kuhl. They’ll be popular but for good reason, I would look to get different in tournaments, however. The Reds will start Connor Overton and will be in for a tough matchup against this Rockies team that comes in with an implied run total of 6.1… probably not a guy we want to get to as a pitching option here.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India, Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham, Joey Votto, Kyle Farmer, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: They’ll be one of the best stacks on the slate, especially on DraftKings where the price tags are just wrong.
COL 5-star plays: Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Hard to ignore a team with a 6.1 implied total… but if you’re MME’ing or looking for some leverage I don’t think it ever hurts to look over Coors.
Detroit Tigers (+290) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-360)
Implied Run Totals:
Tigers – 2.6 IRT
Dodgers – 5.1 IRT
Rundown:
The Tigers will start Beau Brieske who looked fine in his first start against Colorado, but his Dodgers lineup is a lot better than that Rockies lineup. Brieske probably won’t make my player pool on this slate. Clayton Kershaw will start for the Dodgers and will look like one of the top pitching options on the slate. This Tigers team is not one that I’m afraid of especially against Kershaw who has a sub-3 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez
GPP Note: I just don’t see a reason to target batters against Kershaw here.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers will be right up there as a top stack on the main slate for me.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Cincinnati Reds
- Colorado Rockies
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Andrew McCutchen (DK – $3.9k; FD – $2.5k)
I’m going to go right back to the well with McCutchen after he was smoking the ball last night and has crushed lefties in his career. He had a 0.622 SLG, 0.329 ISO, and a 1.027 OPS against lefties last season and is seeing the ball well right now. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dinger predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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