Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice range of pitchers again today, with a handful of them being strong options, a bunch in the middle, and a handful that look to be in a good spot to get shelled – it’s always nice to have a variety! The higher-ceiling options are pretty interesting for tournaments, as we have several who will be facing some potent offenses, and at least one of them is bound to have a strong outing against their opponent. For cash games we have some guys in good matchups who aren’t too terribly expensive, such as Wood and Tyler Anderson, so they might be popular in that format. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
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Early games
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll begin the day with a couple of early games not on the main slate, starting with the Padres and Pirates. We’ll have Darvish and Thompson on the mound here, and not too surprisingly, Vegas has the advantage going to the visitors. I think this one is pretty straight forward, but if you’re playing it, you could always dig in to try and find an unexpected gem.
Padres 5 star plays – Profar
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer/Croneworth
GPP note – A good spot for these guys, especially the lefties as Thompson allows a bit more power to them. Don’t be afraid to go RvR here, though.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Vogelbach
GPP note – Darvish might be getting his groove back, and seeing as this lineup isn’t super threatening anyway, I think they’ll be a bit stale here.
Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
Next up are the Mariners and Marlins, with Brash and Hernandez as the starters. I can’t say that this one looks all that exciting, and Vegas tends to agree with me, so maybe it’s better that it’s not on the main slate. Either way, both pitchers do seem to have some random upside, so this would be a good chance for both of them to have a solid outing.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – France/Suarez, Crawford
GPP note – Good traditional splits for the lefties here, but like SDP, don’t be afraid to go RvR here as well as Hernandez allows power to both sides.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Sanchez, Cooper/Anderson
GPP note – While Brash isn’t giving up a ton of power, he is allowing a lot of xwOBA to both sides, so the bigger hits are coming sooner or later. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep attacking him, especially with lesser interesting teams with lower ownership.
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll head on over to the main slate, starting with the Red Sox and Orioles. We get Hill into (probably) Houck for Boston, and what looks to be Bradish and the O’s bullpen on the other side. It’s a Camden Yards game, which means it’s never a bad idea to give the offenses a good look.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers/Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo
GPP note – Hard not to love some Boston bats at Camden Yards, so use them as a pivot to Coors or as a supplemental component.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Hays
GPP note – While not a great matchup if they see decent pitching for a while, they’ll still have some chances later and they’re still at Camden Yards. They’re also cheap, so you can help tie together any other kind of lineup with these randomly hot bats.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Urquidy and the Astros face Kikuchi and the Blue Jays next, both teams with respectable 4+ implied totals. I think that if the Astros were hitting better (and had Altuve) they’d see a 5+ total, as Kikuchi certainly has his share of bad days. Maybe this one will see the over?
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Brantley/Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – These bats continue to find more power and Kikuchi is no stranger to getting shelled here and there. A good recipe for some fantasy goodness, so stack away!
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Gurriel/Collins
GPP note -Urquidy has shown some big reverse splits and this team has some big-hitting righties. Grabbing some of these RvR bats could quickly pay off in tournaments.
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
We have several games with totals in the 7’s today, the first of which is this one. Syndergaard and Giolito will lead the Angels and White Sox respectively, and I can certainly see this one being a very low scoring affair. Both teams have their own advantages, but we’ll see which one prevails.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
GPP note – Not a good matchup for these guys, but they do at least have some experience against Giolito. I don’t think big stacks would be appropriate, but some exposure here wouldn’t be the worst idea.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Vaughn
GPP note – Not a strong matchup here either, and these guys have minimal exposure to Syndergaard. Probably best to lay low here unless you are going for contrarian stacks.
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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Another 7 total, Nola and the Phillies will face Megill and the Mets in our next bout. Though the Mets look to be ever-so-slightly favored, I myself like the Phillies just a little bit more. We’ll see how it winds up, but like the previous game, it doesn’t look great for either offense.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Castellanos, Schwarber
GPP note – Megill allows plenty of power to both sides, though he does get his strikeouts and some decent scores. I wouldn’t go full stacks or anything here, but some one-offs or mini stacks would be okay.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, McNeil
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Nola. Like the others facing tough pitching, I think some small exposure would be fine, but I wouldn’t rely on big NYM stacks to win the day.
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
Another 7-range total before we head into some higher totaled games, we get Bundy and the Twins up against Kluber and the Rays. It’ll be interesting to see how Kluber performs here, as I’m not sure he’s shown enough to justify his price tag just yet, but we’ll see how things unfold.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Kepler, Arraez/Correa
GPP note – Kluber isn’t where he was years ago right now (maybe he’ll get there, maybe not) and these guys can hit for power, so don’t be afraid to run a few stacks here. Kluber has been worse against righties so don’t be afraid to grab some RvR bats.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco/Kiermaier
GPP note – Another tough matchup, while Bundy isn’t dominating with strikeouts, his statcast numbers are really good against both sides. I could see him navigating through the lineup a few times without much damage being taken, so tread lightly.
Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers
Finally, we break away from some of the more dull looking games (for the offenses at least), and get a 9 total with the Braves and Rangers. We’ll get Anderson and Richards/Howard on the mound to kick things off, and I could see both sides getting theirs. It’s not too far behind the Coors total, so why not look here, too?
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Olson/Ozuna/d’Arnaud
GPP note – Richards has been good to start his games, but Howard has been pretty soft against both sides of the plate, which will give these bats a chance to do something. I think any kind of stack, large or small, would be fine here.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Lowe
GPP note – Pretty standard traditional splits here; Anderson has been really tough on righties but is allowing some good power & contact to lefties, so attack him there.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we have Hendricks and the Cubs facing Houser and the Brewers, and this is another one I kind of disagree with Vegas on. They have the Brewers with a fairly strong advantage, but I think this one is a little more evenly matched. Again, we’ll see how it goes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some back-and-forth action here.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Contreras
GPP note – Good spot for the lefties, Houser is allowing plenty to them and his strikeout rate isn’t super high. Wouldn’t be a bad idea to grab a handful of them to go with your chalkier stacks.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Tellez
GPP note – Pretty much the exact same as the Cubs. Hendricks looked better against the Pirates, but I wouldn’t let that deter you from attacking him with these better-quality bats.
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Next up are the Yankees and my Royals, with Cortes and Bubic on the hill. Unfortunately I have to agree with Vegas this time, as I’m sure the Yanks will walk all over KC. Moving on…..
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge/Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Stanton/Donaldson/Torres
GPP note – Not the best hitter’s ballpark, but with Bubic’s struggle and these Yankees getting hotter and hotter, I don’t think that’ll matter too much. They’re fair game for all of your stacking needs.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
GPP note – Cortes has been pitching very well and I don’t think KC will have a whole lot of luck here. Maybe a random power righty like Perez, but otherwise, I can’t really recommend them.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at St Louis Cardinals
We drop back down to another 7 total game, this time with Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks taking on Wainwright and the Cardinals. While I don’t expect to see either team rack up a bunch of fantasy points for us, I do think that some bats on both sides will have a chance at some good individual performances, so don’t be afraid to take a select few from this one.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Walker/Peralta
GPP note – He’s not giving up much power, but Wainwright has been a little inconsistent. He may have another game where he gives up a good number of hits, so if you’re looking for a budget bat or two, you could try here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Edman/O’Neil
GPP note – Bumgarner can be a little hit-or-miss at times too, and Goldschmidt/Arenado have some experience against him (including a homer for each of them). I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them go deep again here.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Ah, the Coors game. Greene and the Reds head to chalk-town to face Senzatela and the Rockies, and well, you know the drill here by now. However, it seems that whoever sets the salaries forgot that one of these teams was supposed to play in Denver. Could be good, could be a trap…isn’t that part of the fun?
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Pham, Votto/Naquin
GPP note – The Reds are threatening to climb out of the cellar (kudos to you if you know that one without Googling it), and Coors is certainly the place to have a breakout game. They’re also very cheap, as that Coors tax seems to have missed them. Unfortunately, that also means they’re going to be popular, so do with that what you will.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon/Cron
Rockies 4 star plays – Joe, McMahon, Grichuk
GPP note – Not much needs to be said here. They’re at Coors and they’re expected to hit some dingers at high ownership.
Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics
We get our lowest total of the day next – a whopping 6.5. This one features Civale and the Guardians taking on Montas and the Athletics, and I always find games like this interesting. We get the better offence facing the better pitching, with the weaker offense facing the weaker pitching. We’ll see who comes through as the hero, as I’m sure it’ll be more of an individual effort than either team going bananas.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Vegas expects this to be a rather dull game for the bats, and it’s hard to disagree. I wouldn’t go overboard on any stacks here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Murphy/Kemp
GPP note – Same as above. Maybe a piece or two of the pie (they do get the softer matchup), but probably not the entire thing.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Moving on down the line, up next we Alexander and the Tigers facing Anderson and the Dodgers, with the battle of the Tylers at Dodger Stadium! Well, I had to try and find some excitement, as I think we all except the Dodgers to walk away with this one fairly easily. Who knows, maybe we’ll get an upset.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Baez
GPP note – While not a ton to love here, Anderson isn’t exactly a dominant pitcher, so rolling the dice on a few bats isn’t the worst thing you could do. I don’t think big stacks are the ticket, however.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, T/J Turner, Freeman
GPP note – Alexander allows some power to righties but isn’t as bad as his price would indicate. I don’t think he shuts down this offense by any stretch of the imagination, but I think he has a shot to carefully navigate the lineup without getting completely blown up. If the Dodgers post up a dud, you heard it here first.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we wrap up the day with the Nationals and Giants, with Sanchez and Wood on the mound. It wouldn’t be today without another 7.5 total, and once again I’m inclined to side with Vegas in their favoring of San Francisco. If Bell or Soto can’t carry their team through this one, I don’t know that they’ll have much of anything to really offer. I could either see this one going the under, or the Giants covering all on their own.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Not a good matchup here, and none of these guys are hitting lefties very well right now, so I’d shy away. They have the lowest total on the day, even though this game has a 1 run advantage over the game with the lowest total on the slate. Yikes.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Flores
GPP note – A fairly good spot, Sanchez doesn’t appear to be in strict form or anything of the sort, so I think some exposure here could pay off.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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