Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Jameson Taillon
- Michael Kopech
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Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wheeler has to get straightened out soon, doesn’t he? He did see a bit of a Velo increase but he’s still lagging behind compared to last season. The Phillies have scored 25 runs in the first 3 games of this series and I expect their run-scoring to continue in this match-up.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Blackmon is 5 for 9 with an HR against Wheeler.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 at home this season.
Houston Astros (-170) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I always find myself stacking against Martin Perez and generally it doesn’t go well for me. He’s not a very good pitcher but he manages to avoid getting blown up. With that said, I am sure I will have a few Astros stacks. I don’t plan on stacking against Verlander, basically ever. Even returning from Tommy-John, at his age, he’s still so damn good.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Calhoun is 5 for 8 with an HR against Verlander.
San Diego Padres (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Padres – Nick Martinez
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Mahle was really bad at home in 2021 and that has continued this season. He’s just a better pitcher on the road. Martinez hasn’t been very strong over his last 2 starts so maybe we see some offense from the Reds. I have zero desire to use either SP but definitely will be on the bats. Hosmer has HR’d in back-to-back games.
SD 5-star plays: Jurickson Profar
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-150)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We should see another cold and miserable day in MIN, which leads to some solid pitching performances. I don’t expect Ober to match Ryan’s performance from Wednesday night but he has been impressive. SSkubal is an impressive young arm with a ton of upsside. Buxton has hit Skubal hard in his career but I don’t see a lot to like offensively in this match-up.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Tigers bats have just 2 HRs in 169 road PAs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Kyle Garlick
GPP Note: Buxton has 2 HRs in 6 ABs against Skubal.
Milwaukee Brewers (-175) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Peralta started the season horrendously and then bounced back in his last start. He gets to face an extremely weak PIT offense so I think he continues his turnaround today. The Brewers’ offense might be waking up just a little bit and I think they make for a very interesting GPP stack today.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 against RHPs this season.
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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-175)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Keller has had a boatload of success against this CWS lineup in his young career. Kopech has fared decently against KC and now gets to face them when they are struggling. I am a huge fan of Kopech and will always play him thanks to his tremendous arm talent. Keller has to be considered, even as a pretty big road underdog but I don’t know if I will get him in many lineups at all.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
CWSS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
Miami Marlins (-155) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Both of the SPs in this match-up have had their struggles this season. I was shocked to see a total of just 8 runs. I honestly do not love either offense against LHPs so maybe that has something to do with the total. For me, this is mostly a stay-away game aside from a one-off or two.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Rojas is 13 for 35 with 3 HRs against Corbin.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels (-145)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Detmers hasn’t lived up to his prospect hype yet at the MLB level so it’s really tough to trust him until he does. The Guardians lineup can be dangerous and Ramirez reminded us last night what he’s capable of doing at any moment. Quantrill has had more issues with RHBs than LHBs in his MLB career and that doesn’t bode well for him against Trout and Ward, with how they are swinging it right now.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am all about this SP match-up, which is odd to say between these two offenses. I wish there was a way the Twins would have gotten Manoah in the Berrios deal last season but that was probably wishful thinking. Whitlock has been an asset out of the pen for the Red Sox as a long-man but one that’s been used for multiple innings late and to close out games at times. He isn’t stretched out like a traditional SP so TOR could get some ABs against some weaker bullpen arms.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Xander is 15 for 29 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-220)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has a total of 8. The Yankees have a team ISO of .205 against LHPs so far in 2022, which is pretty strong and I think it has a chance to go UP after tonight. I realize that Zimmermann has been really solid to start the season but the Yankees bats appear to be waking up more and more each day. Taillon draws a very K friendly match-up and that should push us to want to go overweight on him tonight.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team has 22 HRs in 12 home games this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (-135)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rays – Jeffery Springs/Jalen Beeks
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Rays are going with a bullpen game as Beeks isn’t going to be a bulk reliever. I would be shocked if he delivers much more than 35 pitches as the PLR. Flexen needs some length after the Seattle bullpen had to be overworked with the early exit by Marco Gonzales yesterday. The Mariners are a sneaky good team against LHPs, especially the guys below. I don’t think you’d need to fully stack them but mini-stacks could be very beneficial.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ St Louis Cardinals (-175)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. Overall, RHBs have hit Castellanos better than LHBs and that’s something that is dangerous against this STL squad. They have cooled after such a hot start but I wouldn’t be shocked if they woke up with 7 or 8 runs at home tonight. Hudson is coming off of his best start and takes on a team that’s just as weak as the one he faced last time out. I like his prospects of providing a strong return after reaching 92 pitches in his last outing.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Hitting just .193 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .046 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (-185)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. The return of Acuna Jr is going to be the headline everywhere. What should be the headline is the start to the season by Kyle Wright. He has been absolutely fantastic for this squad. The atmosphere at Truist is going to be amazing as the fan base shows their love for Acuna Jr tonight. I know the Braves let us down last night but they could put up 8+ tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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