Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Joe Ryan
- Dylan Cease
- Mackenzie Gore
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Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (-215)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I love using Rockies bats against LHPs but I was shocked to see they aren’t hitting with power against them. Suarez came into this season as a guy who a lot of people think takes a huge step forward. Feltner made 2 starts last season, one in Coors in which he was destroyed, and one in Philly. He didn’t fare very well in the Philly start either. He isn’t much to worry about so stacking Phillies’ bats seems pretty ideal to me.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Rockies bats are hitting .291 against LHPs this season but have just 2 HRs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 at home this season.
Houston Astros (-130) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will start this off by stating that I am a huge fan of Javier. I couldn’t understand why he wasn’t in the rotation to begin the season. With that said, I am not sure how stretched out he is for this start. I wouldn’t be shocked by him going 5 but I also wouldn’t be surprised by a 3 inning performance. The Astros bats should wake up more against a guy like Otto, who hasn’t fared overly well at the MLB level. He gave up 7 runs in 2 starts (8.1 innings) against Houston in 2021.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Calhoun is 4 for 5 with 2 HRs against Javier.
San Diego Padres (-170) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Padres – Mackenzie Gore
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gore just dominated the Reds for his first MLB win in his last start. He lines up in a great spot again and I think he beats them, once again. The Reds offense is pretty weak overall and they should struggle against LHPs quite a bit this season. Gutierrez has struggled with walks and we saw yesterday what the Padres can do when patient and with a bunch of guys on base. San Diego should be a popular stacking option on their particular slate.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Hosmer is 7 for his last 18
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-175)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Pineda
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Ryan has looked the part of a future ace at the MLB level. His confidence is through the roof as he battles and I think he’s in a great spot today. I am not sure how to explain last night’s game other than bizarre. Pineda returns to Minnesota and it’s probably not a great spot for him, unless it’s cold again (which is likely). The Twins should make plenty of contact against him tonight.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Tigers bats have just 2 HRs in 139 road PA’s.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Correa is 11 for 26 with 3 HRs and 4 2Bs against Pineda.
Milwaukee Brewers (-175) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Pirates – Dillon Peters
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. It’s extremely cold in Pittsburgh today so we should be interested in the SPs. The Pirates made a pitching change already, as Peters will start for Wilson. Ashby is in a great spot as the Pirates are just a weak team and they are without Reynolds. Peters is going to be a sneaky option but I am not sure how stretched out he is at this point. Despite my love for Ashby in this game, I think highly of Chavis with how he has started the season against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .132 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against LHPs this season.
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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-160)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both of these teams have hit the struggle bus on the offensive side over the last week. I think that puts Cease in a GREAT spot for us against an underachieving Royals offense. I pointed this out yesterday and it might have adjusted slightly since then but KC has 4 of the 22 lowest OPS’ in baseball, in their normal starting lineup. That’s a very plus thing to see for Cease. Greinke never interests me as he just doesn’t have the upside we covet.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
CWSS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last week.
Miami Marlins (-150) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Another very low totaled game on the slate today. I am a HUGE fan of Lopez as an SP and I actually think he’s closer to being an ace than Alcantara is (hot take, I know). Fedde started the season out solidly but then was lit up by the D’Backs of all teams. Lopez is a pretty strong favorite on the road so I am all about the Marlins side, as long as he avoids Juan Soto.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
GPP Note: Jazz is 3 for 11 with 2 HRs against Fedde.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Soto is 8 for 22 with 2 HRs and 3 2Bs against Lopez.
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. It’s looking like a bullpen game again for the Giants. I have seen some reports stating that Sam Long would open again, which he just did on Monday against the Brewers. Blackburn has been somewhat impressive for the A’s but this is a tough spot as the Giants just keep producing and a guy like Joc can do all sorts of damage all by himself at this point. Another SP possibility for the Giants tonight is Jakob Junis.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: 114 team Ks in 11 road games so far this season.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 at home so far this season.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels (-185)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Ohtani hasn’t been great to begin the season but the Guardians lineup has cooled off considerably. This is yet another game with a low total on the slate so both SPs are certainly in play, but I have a hard time using Plesac against the Angels. We definitely could see an Ohtani night of like 5 innings and 9 Ks against this CLE squad and it wouldn’t surprise me. I just want to see him with better command out there because I just hate seeing pitchers walk guys or rack up pitch counts for no reason.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 at home this season.
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game is going to be popular from a stacking standpoint and could certainly see 3+ HRs hit. I can’t recommend either SP at this point, even though Wacha has looked decent to begin his Boston career. We know how dangerous the Blue Jays bats are but let’s not forget what the Red Sox are capable of when things start to click for them. I would not be shocked to see a multi-extra base hit game from Story.
BOS 5-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: The projected BOS lineup has 6 career HRs against Stripling.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: TOR has 14 HRs in 8 home games this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-265)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has a total of 8. The Yankees (Rizzo mostly) came alive last night and we know that’s going to happen against Baltimore pitching. I expect them to be one of the most popular stacks tonight but I can’t fade them because once a team’s power wakes up, it usually gets hot for a stretch. Montgomery is an interesting option because he gets a pretty solid K jump against this Baltimore lineup. Who is going to double-dong from the Yankees?
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .074 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team has 20 HRs in 11 home games this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Rasmussen (no relation) just doesn’t have the K upside he flashed as an RP and I think that hurts him against a team like Seattle. I do understand that his K numbers should get a bump with the bottom half of the SEA lineup but I think he allows too much contact and the top part of this lineup is dangerous. Gonzales is capable of putting up strong performances and the Rays can definitely strike out.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Ty France might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
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New York Mets (EVEN) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7. I love this pitching match-up but I feel like I could say that about a bunch of games today. Matz is extremely up and down so there is some value in a Mets stack. Carrasco has looked like a younger version of himself to begin this season. It’s really great to see him bounce back because he was an excellent arm for the Guardians. The early slate games are pretty tough so you might just look at mini-stacks from this game.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .097 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .035 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. Urias should be in a great spot but there are a couple of D’Backs hitters that have hit LHPs really well, in their careers. I was shocked to see the game at an 8 total given how solid Gallen has looked to begin the 2022 season. I think people will blindly stack the Dodgers in this game and I think that we can take advantage of that and fade a few guys or just go with mini-stacks.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs so far this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Matt Davidson
GPP Note: Kelly is 3 for 11 with 2 HRs against Urias
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (-210)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Mark Leiter Jr.
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. The Braves bats line up to have a great chance at being the GPP winning stack tonight. I haven’t looked at the DK pricing yet but if they are mispriced yet again, that’s going to make them a popular pairing with the Yankees and their high price points. Morton has struggled to start the 2022 season but this feels like a get right spot for him to me. I know the Cubs have been pretty decent but this isn’t an offense that’s going to be dangerous the entire season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Hoerner is 9 for his last 16.
ATL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Travis Demeritte
GPP Note: RHBs have an OPS of 1.152 against Leiter Jr. this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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