Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 4/25:
Apr 19, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Max Scherzer (21) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Walker Buehler
- Framber Valdez
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
San Francisco Giants (+157) @ Milwaukee Bucks (-187)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – 3.1 IRT
Brewers – 4.1 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll start in Milwaukee where the Giants will travel for an odd one-game series. Sammy Long will get the start for the Giants but doesn’t appear to be a pitching option on this slate, as he’s maxed out at 31 pitches this season, so not completely stretched out quite yet. Corbin Burnes will get the start for the Brewers and will look like one of the best pitching options of the day. He’s coming off a nice game against the Pirates where he struck out 10 on 107 pitches. He has a 31% strikeout rate on the season and will be a guy I look to get to in all formats if we can get up to him.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: I just don’t see a reason to voluntarily target bats against Burnes.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: The Brewers stack is firmly in play against Long and this Giants bullpen, not the top stack by any means, but their in the conversation.
Colorado Rockies (+164) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-199)
Implied Run Totals:
Rockies – 3.7 IRT
Phillies – 5.1 IRT
Rundown:
Kyle Freeland will get the ball for the Rockies after he just signed a new five-year extension with the team. He hasn’t exactly been great this season, but he’s started all three of his games in Coors Field which isn’t going to help anyone out. I still don’t think I’ll be going to him against this Phillies offense that has some scary bats in it. Kyle Gibson will toe the rubber for the Phils and will look like a solid enough SP2 option. This Rockies lineup isn’t striking out too terribly much at 21.2% on the season, but they’re also not all that great.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, CJ Cron
GPP Note: I’m fine with some one-offs from Colorado here, probably not a team that I’m fully stacking, however.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I like this Phillies stack quite a bit, and I’m not letting the lefty/lefty matchup for guys like Harper and Schwarber scare me off of them.
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Boston Red Sox (+115) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-134)
Implied Run Totals:
Red Sox – 3.8 IRT
Blue Jays – 4.3 IRT
Rundown:
It looks like we’ll have some weather issues in this game, so make sure to watch the Weather Station for updates and if the game is safe for pitchers. Nathan Eovaldi will start for Boston here and gets a really tough shake of the die in drawing the Blue Jays on the other side of this one. That being said, he has at least 15.1 DraftKings points in all three of his starts this season and will be in play for GPPs at the very least. Jose Berrios has really struggled this season but bounced back nicely against this Boston team last time he started. He has an 18.6% strikeout rate on the season but after having a 20+% k rate in five straight seasons I would expect that number to come up.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Berrios can be volatile, so I have no issue taking some shots at this Red Sox stacks for tournaments.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer, Zach Collins
GPP Note: Eovaldi has been good enough to where I don’t know if I want to fully stack him, but a mini-stack is firmly in play.
New York Mets (-146) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+125)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – 3.9 IRT
Cardinals – 3.3 IRT
Rundown:
The Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound in this one and will look like a great option in all formats. He comes at a discount to guys like Burnes and Bieber on this slate and has just as much of a floor and ceiling. The matchup leaves a little to be desired, but I’ll always favor pitching over hitting. He has a 33.3% strikeout rate on the season and will be a guy I look to get to here. Miles Mikolas will get the start for the Cardinals and is kind of a meh option. He’s not a guy that strikes a ton of guys out but he limits hard contact well which keeps you from feeling warm and fuzzy about a Mets stack.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Mets for me, Mikolas has been solid this season.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Similar story here, just one-offs in hopes you can run into a HR, but Scherzer looks like a great pitching option here.
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Houston Astros (-139) @ Texas Rangers (+115)
Implied Run Totals:
Astros – 4.6 IRT
Rangers – 4.1 IRT
Rundown:
Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros here in a nice matchup with a below-average Rangers offense. Valdez isn’t a massive strikeout guy but he has enough upside with a 21.9% strikeout rate last season to look good in a nice matchup. Dane Dunning will go for the Rangers and has struggled this season with a 5.68 ERA in three starts. I would have a tough time getting to him as an SP2 option even at a cheap price tag. This Astros stack will look pretty nice here.
HOU 5-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: I like the Astros a good amount here and they have some nice price tags in their lineup which makes it easier to get up to one or two of these big-name pitchers.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Probably more of one-offs than anything here for me, I think Valdez has a nice game here.
Cleveland Guardians (-121) @ Los Angeles Angels (+105)
Implied Run Totals:
Guardians – 4.2 IRT
Angels – 3.9 IRT
Rundown:
We get another ace on the slate with Shane Bieber taking the mound for the Guardians. He’s coming off of a really nice game against the White Sox and got his pitch count up to 86 in that one which is a good sign moving forward. Outside of Ohtani and Trout this Angels lineup doesn’t scare me and is actually striking out at a 24.5% rate on the season. They have a lot of young bats that I’m hoping Bieber can take advantage of here. Michael Lorenzen will get his third start for the Angels here after coming off of a rough outing against the Astros. The Guardians are a much better matchup and Lorenzen has shown a solid enough strikeout upside at 24.3% this season for him to make sense as an SP2 option.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Lorenzen is going to get hit around throughout the season, I don’t hate taking on some Guardians bats here.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: I like Bieber a good amount, but it’s hard to ignore guys like Trout and Ohtani here.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-202) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+170)
Implied Run Totals:
Dodgers – 5.1 IRT
Diamondbacks – 3.6 IRT
Rundown:
This is a really nice spot for Walker Buehler who will get the start for the Dodgers heading into Arizona. He’s struggled a decent amount this season and coming off of a rough game against the Braves but this Dbacks offense is very below average. He’s very similar to Berrios from earlier in the slate where his strikeout rate is about 10% points lower than his career average, I expect some positive regression from him, and looks like a great option here. On the other side, Merrill Kelly will get the start against a good Dodgers lineup which is really the only reason I won’t have much interest in him here. He has an ERA under 1.00 and has at least 19 DraftKings points in all three starts this season. You can make a case for him as a cheap SP2 option in GPPs, but at the very least I think he keeps us off this Dodgers stack.
LAD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Kelly has been good enough this season to keep me off of a full Dodgers stack, but a mini-stack is firmly in play.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: I’ll have a decent amount of interest in Walker Buehler here, so not a ton of Dbacks love from me.
MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Nick Castellanos (DK – $5.3k; FD – $4.1k)
Love me some Castellanos here against Kyle Freeland who has struggled all season. Castellanos hit lefties really well last season with a 0.285 ISO, 0.945 OPS, and a 0.590 SLG, I think he gets a hold of one annnnnnnnnd maybe two tonight! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dinger predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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