Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a bunch of chopped up slates for the early games, so pitching options are going to vary widely among them. Overall it’s a fairly favorable day for the pitchers though, as we don’t actually get any higher carnage ratings until the main slate. The KSCOREs sure could be better, as we only have three pitchers to break that 500+ mark on the early slates and none on the main one. That’s not to say there isn’t much upside, as there are some that could come through, but it’s going to take a big more digging in than usual (or being brave in tournaments, taking pitchers against stronger offenses). As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in, as it should really help hone our edge today.
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Early slates
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with the Giants and Nationals, with Wood and Espino on the mound. While not the best looking game for the offenses, I’ll give the edge to the Giants here, as they get a more useful matchup than the home team.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Pederson, Bart
GPP note – Good reverse splits for the righties here; Espino is allowing .200+ ISO to them.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell/Soto
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting for much power against lefties, so proceed with caution.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Up next are the Guardias and Yankees, who will have Quantrill and Cortes starting. Quantrill is coming off of protocol, though he pitched just last weekend, so he hasn’t really missed much. He and Cortes have both looked fine, so I think this one will start a little slow for the offenses.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Straw
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting lefties all that great either (sans the two above), and Cortes has been pretty strict, so I don’t know that we see a big game here.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Rizzo, Stanton
GPP note – The three above are hitting righties well enough, but Quantrill hasn’t been allowing much power to either side of the plate. Small exposure might be fine here, but be wary of larger stacks.
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
We move on to our next game, with Senzatela and the Rockies facing Skubal and the Tigers. While I do think finding the right big stacks today might be a little challenging, I like some small/medium pieces of both of these offenses.
Rockies 5 star plays – Cron
Rockies 4 star plays – Joe/Bryant
GPP note – While Skubal isn’t allowing a ton of power, he’s allowing some decent contact so some exposure would be good here, even if they’re not at Coors.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Meadows/Grossman
GPP note – Senzatela allows lots of power to righties (granted some of that is skewed from Coors, but still), so don’t be afraid to try a bat or two here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Thompson and Hendricks are up next, with the Pirates and Cubs squaring off. Like the previous game, I think both offenses can be used here, as they get fairly good pitching matchups. I don’t see people rushing to stack the Pirates, so you’d have them mostly to yourself, too.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Vogelbach/Reynolds
GPP note – Hendricks is getting some strikeouts but is also allowing some big hits to both sides of the plate, so this would still be a decent place to attack in case that trend continues.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Contreras, Schwindel/Wisdom
GPP note – Traditional splits are preferable here, but Thompson is still allowing .178 ISO to righties, so he can be attacked from either side.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Our next matchup between the White Sox and Twins will feature Velasquez and Bundy, and once again, I have interest in both offenses here. While I don’t think either team goes bonkers as a whole, I do think that we’ll get a handful of big hits that should set us up quite nicely. Besides, it’s a divisional game, so that always raises the ceiling a bit!
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson/Abreu
GPP note – Bundy has been a little strict but the hits he does allow tend to be bigger ones (low x/WOBA given up, but close to .200 ISO allowed to both sides of the plate). That tells me while full stacks might not quite get it done, smaller ones could help tie together a lineup pretty well.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco/Correa, Sanchz/Arraez/Kepler
GPP note – Velasquez has been soft to both sides (though more to righties), so it’s open season here. They tend to be hit-or-miss, so I’d go with big stacks and hope for a hit.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Next in line are the Brewers and Phillies, with Houser and Wheeler as the starters. We start to shift back towards the pitchers here, and even though Wheeler has had a not-so-great start to the year, I think he’ll start to get it back together here.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Tellez/Narvaez
GPP note – While not a great matchup against Wheeler, he is allowing a good chunk of power to lefties, so they could be used for one-offs or smaller stacks.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber, Hoskins/Castellanos
GPP note – A mostly average-ish matchup, though Houser’s strikeout rate is well below average. He doesn’t allow a ton of power, though it’s more to lefties (.160 ISO) than it is to righties (.019 ISO).
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
The Rangers and Athletics are next, and we get Perez facing Montas for this one. This one seems to favor the pitchers too, as both teams are a little stale against the hand matchup they’ll be facing. Maybe the bullpen will help them a litle in that regard, but I’m not getting my hopes too high for this one.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – These guys are a little flat against righties right now, but Montas does at least allow some decent power to righties, so that could help them some. I think smaller stacks would be the more favorable approach.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Murphy
GPP note – Most of these guys are hitting flat in this matchup too, with the exception of Murphy. Perez isn’t really giving up much for big hits, so I don’t know that we’ll get a ton of fantasy goodness out of this lineup.
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Moving on, we get the Cardinals and Hudson facing Mahle and the Reds. The Reds can certainly relate to an offense being stale, but they do at least get a favorable matchup here. Could this be the game that gets them swinging again?
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Goldschmidt, Edman
GPP note – Arenado and Edman are hitting righties well, but the rest of the team is lagging behind (though DeJong has some random pop). Mahle is allowing moderate power to both sides, so overall, once again, I think smaller stacks would be best.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Votto, Fraley
GPP note – Perhaps the most unexciting lineup in baseball right now, Hudson is coming in allowing quite a bit to both sides, so maybe this could be a matchup to wake up these cold bats.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
We get a couple of big name offenses next, with the Blue Jays and Astros playing in that nice Texas weather. They’ll start Manoah and Urquidy, two of the more expensive pitchers on the day, though they can certainly pay it off. All in all, I do like Manoah better, but we’ll see how these offenses fare today.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Collins
GPP note – Strong reverse splits against Urquidy (.200+ ISO to lefties, hardly anything to righties) puts these RHBs squarely in play here, be it small stacks or larger ones.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Pena, Bregman/Brantley
GPP note – Fairly tough matchup against Manoah, though he does allow some good power to lefties on occasion. I’m not against running a bat or two against him, but big stacks are probably out.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We wrap up the earlier games with the Red Sox and Rays, who both look to running a bullpen game today. Whitlock looks to be the stronger option of the two, though it’s tough to say if he’ll see more than one inning or not. If he does, he could put up a decent score, but if not, he could be a very expensive dud.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Verdugo
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game, which can be less than ideal for DFS purposes, but at least the projected starter has a low strikeout rate. I think the theme of smaller stacks today would apply here, too.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Choi/Franco
GPP note – Similar idea here, though Whitlock has been a lot more strict. It’s hard to get excited here outside of the few bats that are hitting righties well.
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Main slate
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
We’ll switch over to the main slate, starting with Hernandez and the Marlins facing Anderson and the Braves. A mostly average game compared to the rest of the day, there are some good spots for the bats, though it’s still tough to see either team collectively going off. I think we’ll get a few big hits, but I don’t know that the love will spread out much more than that.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Sanchez/Chisholm, Cooper
GPP note – Though not a ton to love about this lineup, Anderson does allow plenty of power to both sides, so Miami stacks aren’t off the table.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Olson, Albies, Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Decent spot for the lefties, as Hernandez allows .350+ wOBA and .200+ ISO to them. Pretty strict to righties, so maybe go lighter on them.
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
Williams and the Mets face Castellanos and the Diamondbacks in our next game, as we get the battle of two of the cheaper pitchers on the day. Well, for an inning or two at least, and then both teams look like they will run a bullpen game from that point on. Yeah, I don’t love these games either, but at least the Mets’ offense might make it interesting.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso/Escobar/McNeil
GPP note – These guys are hitting righties well, and while Castellanos hasn’t been outright shelled yet, his allowed xwOBA is pretty high. That tells me it’s coming sooner than later, so it would be a good idea to stack against him.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Walker/Peralta
GPP note – Not a good start against Williams for this bullpen game, so while these guys are hitting righties okay, it’s hard to really love them as a whole. I think some one-offs or small stacks could be useful, though.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
We’ll head to the west coast for our last few games, starting with Anderson and the Dodgers playing Darvish and the Padres. We all know Darvish’s story, his floor is just as low as his ceiling is high, so who knows what we’ll get. I’d imagine the Dodgers’ offense will be the exact opposite of how he does (rather than both sides falling flat), so having exposure to both of them might not be a bad idea.
Dodgers 5 star plays –
Dodgers 4 star plays –
GPP note – This all might just depend on which Darvish shows up, so it would be good to hedge here if possible. He implodes hard when he has a rough outing, so stack big if you decide to run some Dodgers’ lineups, and have some Darvish exposure elsewhere in your GPP pool for his upside.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Profar
GPP note – Not a great matchup for these guys, but since some of them are hitting well, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run some small pairings here. I just don’t think this is where I’d want to go for large stacks.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
The Orioles and Angels are up next, with Watkins and Syndergaard getting the start. This one looks like easy pickings for the Angels (did I just jinx them?), and while we haven’t seen Syndergaard have a big performance yet, this is certainly an offense he could do it against. It helps that none of them have ever faced him.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Santander/Mullins
GPP note – Even though Syndergaard hasn’t found his strikeout stuff just yet, he’s still been tough to both sides of the plate, so I don’t think this is going to be the team that wins the day for us.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh/Adell/Stassi
GPP note – A nice soft target that has a low strikeout rate and high statcast numbers against righties, this is a good spot for these guys to smack the ball around and do some damage. Stacks of all sizes are welcome here.
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
And last but not least, my Royals will face the Mariners, with Bubic and Brash at the helm. As has been the theme all day, I can’t say that I love either’s chances of going off the rails, but I think some small/medium stacks could be useful. Perhaps this is one of those days that we don’t win with big stacks, but rather, a larger number of small ones?
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Benintendi/Perez, Dozier
GPP note – Not a bad spot for these guys, though they don’t seem to ever want to go off as a group. Some small exposure here would be fine I think.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – France/Crawford, Suarez/Winker
GPP note – It’s never a bad idea to attack KC pitching, and this is no exception. The usual options are in play here, as the rest seem a little lacking against lefties.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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