Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Julio Urias
- Alex Wood
- Ranger Suarez
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Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers (-135)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Detroit’s bats are pretty cold overall so Senzatela is going to interest me for GPPs on DK as an SP2. I love this COL lineup against LHPs but I tend to go lightly on them in their first game after a series at home. Bryant and Cron will be one of my favorite mini-stacks thanks to what they do against LHPs. For Detroit, this is almost all about Miguel Cabrera needing 1 hit for 3,000 in his career.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Bryant has an HR against Skubal.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Meadows has been the Tigers’ most consistent bat to begin the season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (-170)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Verlander has come back from surgery and looks like he never missed any time. We know that the Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup but I actually think that Verlander ends up with a great performance. Stripling is a guy that I think this Astros squad can wake up against, even without Altuve.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer
GPP Note: Springer is 5 for 13 with an HR against Verlander, but has 5 Ks as well.
HOU 5-star plays: Jeremy Pena
4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Diaz is 3 for 7 with an HR and 2 2Bs against Stripling.
St Louis Cardinals (-130) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Reds are hitting .187 against LHPs to begin the 2022 season. Matz is in such a strong spot but I struggle to trust him after what he did to me in his opening start. Greene has been on the mound, just throwing gas left and right to begin his MLB career. I think Greene starts this game out great but this STL lineup is very experienced and I think they get the timing the 2nd time through the lineup.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Arenado is 11 for 27 with 7 extra-base hits against RHPs so far this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Pham is 4 for 5 with an HR against Matz.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Ober has impressed me a bit and he gets the White Sox and their struggling bats at the moment. Kopech has massive upside and this Twins lineup is really cold overall. I could see there being a couple of HRs in this game but it ended up 3-2 by the time the night is over.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Abreu is 4 for 10 with an HR, 3B, and 2B against Ober.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Twins are hitting just .198 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (-170)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We just saw these two face off just a week and a half ago. Both SPs were solid or better in that start but some of that is attributed to the fact that both offenses are on the weaker side. There is some weather to pay attention to in Chicago today and it seems like the wind should be blowing in.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Smyly just shut out the Pirates across 5 innings of work, ten days ago.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Suzuki HR’d off of Quintana on the 12th.
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Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners (-134)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Both SPs are capable of putting up shutdown performances so I find me wanting to go light on the offensive side. Seattle’s offense is a bit more dangerous right now but they also have more strikeouts to be had against them. If Seattle were to get Haniger back, that would bump them up a little bit more for me.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Nicky Lopez
GPP Note: Benintendi is hitting .414 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 at home this season.
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood (not confirmed)
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We are still waiting on an announcement ass far as an SP for the Giants. Corbin hasn’t been the same guy since the Nats won the World Series and could find some struggles in this one. Thankfully for him, the Giants are more reliant on LHBs than they have been the last couple of seasons. The Nationals’ offense hasn’t really shown much to this point.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Crawford is 11 for 43 with 2 HRs, a 3B, and 2 2Bs against Corbin.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: The Nationals are yet to hit an HR against an LHP this season.
Texas Rangers (-130) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Athletics – Adam Oller
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I was shocked to see such a low total given the pitching match-up we are expected to see in this one. Otto has actually been strong through 2 starts at AAA this season, not allowing a run. He was extremely bad in a handful of starts at the MLB level last season. Oller has looked terrible at the MLB level to begin this season and I could see a bit of a breakout game from the Rangers’ offense tonight.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Oller is getting killed by LHBs (technically by everybody).
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Murphy and Kemp both had multi-hit games in the one start by Otto against OAK last season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels (-185)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Both Zimmermann and Detmers have been surprising to me this season, but for opposite reasons. Detmers is a top-pitching prospect who can’t seem to get it together at the MLB level, while Zimmermann has looked great to begin the 2022 season despite being somebody we have picked on. I am siding with Vegas in this game and stacking the Angels against Zimmerman.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: The Orioles are slugging just .290 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Mike Trout
GPP Note: The Angels have a team ISO of just .116 against LHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Peralta has been terrible to begin the 2022 season but he should turn it around sometime soon. He has some bad history against some of the PHI bats but we have to remember that PHI is coming out of a series at Coors Field. I am pretty high on PHI in this game but I do understand why they might struggle. Suarez hasn’t been great but he gets a MIL team that has struggled against LHPs so far.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Brewers bats are hitting just .167 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: The 3 above are a combined 11 for 26 with 9 extra-base hits against Peralta.
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Eli Morgan
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has a total of 9. Morgan hasn’t been officially announced but everything I have read points to him making the start today. The Yankee offense is struggling but it’s hard to not want to use them against Morgan in this one. I might stick to mini-stacks of thee Yankees until the lineup fully wakes up. The Guardians keep performing but I expect them to slow down somewhat soon. Taillon represents a tough match-up but they did just beat up Dylan Cease a bit.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .119 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. We get an SP match-up of 2 very experienced pitchers. Wacha was just on TB last season so there is some familiarity there. Both have been very strong to begin their 2022 campaigns so I could not be shocked by a low-scoring game but I also could see a few struggles just based on the opposing lineups doing a little damage early on.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs so far.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Hitting .265 as a team at home this season.
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New York Mets (-130) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. I am a fan of both SPs, I just wish that Gallen could stay healthy. The Mets offense has had some strong performances recently and they could make for a sneaky GPP stack tonight. I won’t be stacking the D’Backs much but they’ve had a little resurgence over the last few days.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team OPS of .800 against RHPs so far this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team is hitting just .168 against LHPs so far.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Padres – Nick Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. Urias is capable of dominating any team that he faces but this is going to be a test, even without Tatis Jr., The Padres are hitting LHPs with plenty of power so far. To be fair to Urias, it’s a small sample size and it’s really just Machado and Profar doing the most damage. I think that Martinez is in a very tough spot as he has given up plenty of power to RHBs and the Dodgers have some strong ones in their lineup.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs so far this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 against LHPs so far this season.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-145)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. I love what the two Marlins below have been doing. I think Jesus Sanchez has star written all over him. With that being said, Wright has looked excellent to begin the 2022 season while Rogers has looked really bad for Miami. At a minimum, I want to have mini-stacks of each offense. I think the Marlins’ offense is much more dangerous with Jazz hitting leadoff.
MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
GPP Note: Marlins bats are striking out at roughly a 24% rate against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nick Castellanos AND Jesus Sanchez
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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