Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/20:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Luis Severino
- Erick Fedde
- Logan Gilbert
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New York Yankees (-170) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Severino looked great his last time out. I love the spot for him in a very low-totaled game. E-Rod has plenty of experience against the Yankees. He has struggled against a couple of the bats but he’s had some success as well. Looking at mini-stacks of the Yankees and both SPs in this one.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Isiah Kiner-Felefa
GPP Note: Torres is 8 for 23 with 3 HRs against Rodriguez.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Meadows is 10 for 24 to begin his season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-140) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I will point out that Cavan Biggio has dominated against Pivetta, going 4 for 10 with 2 HRs and a 2B in his career. He doesn’t make my plays below because he has struggled mightily to begin the season. Berrios is capable of dominating anybody he faces but we have also seen him get destroyed. I love taking power bats against Pivetta and the Blue Jays have plenty of power.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer
GPP Note: Bichette is 7 for 14 with 2 HRs and 2 2Bs against Pivetta.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .681 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This is an interesting match-up as the Cardinals continue to score runs while Alcantara is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. I want exposure to both sides of that as the Cardinals have a potent offense but Sandy is capable of shutting them down. I think that the Marlins are a sneaky stack against Mikolas.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Arenado is 10 for 22 with 6 extra-base hits against RHPs so far this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
GPP Note: Sanchez has an OPS of 1.371 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 1
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that all double-headers have reverted back to 9 innings this season. Bieber is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s had some success against the White Sox so he’s definitely in play. Keuchel looked solid after a horrendous sspring. I would rather stack against him than use him in my builds.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Abreu is 8 for 30 with 3 HRs against Bieber.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Owen Miller
GPP Note: The 3 above are 10 for 24 against LHPs so far this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 2
Pitchers:
White Sox – Jimmy Lambert
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. McKenzie is capable of putting up a dominant performance or he’s going to get smacked around in 4 innings. He seems to live on the extremes more than anything. Lambert isn’t somebody that interests me at all and I think the Guardians take Game 2, while putting up 6-8 runs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Chicago’s roster has hit just .181 against McKenzie.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Lambert feels like a great match-up for Kwan today.
Tampa Bay Rays (-115) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas total (assume it’s a weather delay). If we get colder weather and some wind blowing in, I don’t have an issue with playing either SP as Rasmussen gets a decent match-up while Stroman is the better overall pitcher. Rasmussen allowed 2 HRs to RHBs in his starts while LHBs got him for 2 2Bs and 2 SBs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Kevin Keiermaier
GPP Note: 5 of Kiermaier’s 9 hits against Stroman have gone for extra bases.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Suzuki has started 8 for 16 with 8 RBI against RHPs.
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Minnesota Twins (-135) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Chris Paddack
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think this is a good spot for the Twins bats to wake up. If they had Buxton back in the lineup, I would love the top half. Lynch struggled a lot in his start, allowing 3 HRs in 5 innings. I wish I understood the Twins’ decision to acquire Paddack but that’s why I’m not in a front office. The Royals should be fairly popular given that most of the world thinks Paddack stinks.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Minnesota is hitting just .191 against LHPs to start the season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: RHBs were 4 for 10 against Paddack in his Twins debut.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (-130)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have an under-the-radar SP match-up between two teams that aren’t competing for much this season. Fedde gets to face what has been baseball’s weakest offense while Kelly has been really strong, not allowing a run through his 2 starts. I don’t have a problem taking both SPs in the same DK GPP lineup.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Beer, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: D’Backs bats are hitting .156 on the season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Bell
GPP Note: The Nationals have just 1 HR against RHPs so far this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics (-140)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Athletics – Daulton Jefferies
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I don’t think I can ever be convinced to use Lyles (it might just be me being stubborn), but this match-up screams under to me. Jefferies has some talent as a young arm but he hasn’t picked up K’s to begin the season while also showing some struggles against LHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Baltimore is hitting just .196 against RHPs so far this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Murphy is 5 for 16 with an HR against Lyles.
Los Angeles Angels (-145) @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Both SPs have had some struggles to begin their 2022 season. Some day the sites will figure out how to allow us to use Ohtani the SP and Ohtani the hitter in the same lineup. I hope to see Trout back in the Angels lineup as he has had the team’s most success against Odorizzi. The projected HOU lineup has hit Ohtani fairly well but they have a decently high K rate against him, which is interesting given that the Astros just don’t strike out much.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Tyler Wade
GPP Note: Trout is 5 for 15 with 3 BBs against Odorizzi.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Brantley and Bregman have combined to go 7 for 16 against Ohtani.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-120) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Another Coors game on the slate for us but the games haven’t been very Coors-like yet. If you’ve read my ramblings in the past, you know that I am big on using Marquez when he is at home. I know the Phillies lineup is a bit scary but he has the ability to shut teams down in Coors. It’s a very volatile strategy at times but I want some exposure. I think Eflin is in a VERY rough spot and I am hoping the weather is around 70 degrees for this one.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Phillies bats are hitting .441 against Marquez.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Bryant and Blackmon are 13 for 22 against Eflin.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-240)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Woodruff is an ace-like pitcher but he doesn’t offer the same K upside that Burnes did on Tuesday. Keller looked great this spring but I am very hesitant to believe he’s taking a leap forward. He’s always shad ridiculous stuff but has never been able to showcase it at the MLB level.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Newman is 6 for 17 with 2 extra-base hits against Woodruff.
MIL 5-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Tellez hit an HR as a CORE play for me yesterday, will he end up one again?
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-145)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. We have another under-the-radar SP match-up but I think that Dunning is going to struggle a bit in this one. He was the main piece in the Lance Lynn deal and had always been a top-pitching prospect. Gilbert has looked absolutely filthy to begin the 2022 season and might be making a huge leap at the MLB level. The Rangers spent a boatload of money this offseason but the overall lineup is pretty weak.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Garcia and Lowe are 7 for 16 against Gilbert.
SEA 5-star plays: JP Crawford
4-star plays: Ty France, Jared Kelenic
GPP Note: Seattle has 9 HRs over their last 6 games.
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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 6.5. We get a spectacular SP match-up and you can tell what Vegas thinks of this game. I have a hard time believing it stays under the 6.5 total because that’s extremely low for a 9-inning MLB game. Rodon has been filthy but the Mets have a few guys who can hit LHPs well. I think Bassitt was a HUGE get for the Mets this offseason. I think people will flock to Rodon first but I want to get myself Basssitt shares.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Crawford is 3 for 6 with 2 extra-base hits against Bassitt.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Lindor is 10 for 32 with 5 extra-base hits against Rodon.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres (-175)
Pitchers:
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Padres – Mackenzie Gore
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. Gore gets to make his 2nd MLB start against one of the worst offenses in baseball. I wouldn’t be shocked by a dominant performance from the one-time top LHP prospect in baseball. Gutierrez isn’t somebody we should be worried about so I expect Machado to stay hot.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Farmer is hitting .400 against LHPs so far this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: LHBs is 5 for 14 with 4 BBs against Gutierrez to begin the season.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-135)
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9. I was shocked to see a 9 for a total with the Morton on the mound as the underdog. Gonsolin allows plenty of baserunners so I would have assumed ATL was favored in this one. I am really interested in seeing how the bats handle this day game after a night game in LA. We don’t see a ton of early Wests Coast games these days.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Atlanta has 10 HRs over their last 7 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Freeman is 6 for 12 with 3 extra-base hits against Morton.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Seattle Mariners
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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