Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a small early slate with a larger main slate, with a couple of makeup games in the mix as well. The slates are a little funky today, but we’ll get through them one by one. Let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
While they aren’t all studs, we have a collection of decent pitching today, with most of the cast having a carnage rating in the 5 range or lower. That might mean we’re in for some slower games today, and Vegas tends to agree, as there are only two games that opened with a 9.0 total (not counting Coors, as they’ll always have a high total). Days like these make for easier cash game options (Burnes looks pretty good for that), but it might be a little harder to find which offenses are poised to go off. However, even though there’s not much carnage on the horizon, only a handful of these pitchers have 500+ KSCOREs, so it might be equally as hard to find the pitchers that will win the day. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
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Early slates
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
We’ll kick things off with the first game of a double-header for these teams, featuring Cobb and Megill as our starters. We only have a 7 total for this one, but fortunately the rest of the day looks a bit more exciting than that.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Yastrzemski
GPP note – While there’s not a ton of BvP here, the two above have homers against him, so that’s a decent start.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Cano/Escobar
GPP note – There’s some familiarity with Cano/Escobar here as well, so that could be a good place to start.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll continue on to the normal early slate with the White Sox and Guardians, with Keuchel and Bieber taking the mound. While there is plenty of BvP on both sides, the edge still has to go to the home team here as they have the better matchup. But hey, it’s a small slate without many options, so contrarian stacks are certainly more welcomed.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu
GPP note – While not the best matchup, they are familiar with Bieber and have a lot of BvP against him. Sometimes that’s all the reason you need to run a few stacks. If nothing else, he is allowing power to both sides of the plate.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes
GPP note – A favorable matchup for these bats, Keuchel is allowing a lot of power to righties and his strikeout rate is low. A good spot to pounce.
St Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Next up we get Wainwright and the Cardinals taking on Luzardo and the Marlins. This game seems like a good source of secondary or mini-stacks, as there are a handful of bats in decent spots, but I don’t know that either team is going to go off the rails.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Goldschmidt, Edman
GPP note – Luzardo allows a good chunk of power to righties, and fortunately this lineup is stacked with them. The bottom of the order isn’t doing quite as well as the top, so don’t be afraid to try smaller stacks here and supplement elsewhere.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Chisholm/Sanchez, Soler
GPP note – While not a great spot, Wainwright does allow some power to lefties, so I don’t think grabbing some of them on this small slate is the worst thing you could do.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
We wrap up the early slate with the Yankees and Tigers, with Cole and Alexander on the hill. Not much needs to be said about Cole here, we know what he’s capable of and how not-so-scary the Tigers’ lineup. The better question will be how will the Yankees fair against Alexander?
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Hicks/Judge, Donaldson (BvP)
GPP note – Alexander is cheap but he’s not quite the pushover his salary would indicate. I don’t think he shuts these guys down completely or anything, but I think a consideration could be made to focus elsewhere since we only have 3 games on this slate.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Meadows
GPP note – Bad matchup for these guys, but Meadows is hitting well and does have experience against Cole (6 for 30 with 3 homers and 12 strikeouts). It’s a tiny slate, maybe he’s worth a sprinkle?
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Main slate
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Our next game isn’t on the FanDuel main slate, but DraftKings did include it. Said matchup is between the Diamondbacks and Nationals, with Gilbert and Adon to start. This will be Gilbert’s first start of 2022, and though Adon has two starts with around 4 innings each, he hasn’t done much for us in regard to fantasy goodness.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Peralta
GPP note – No BvP or anything like that, but Adon is giving up plenty of hits, so there should be some opportunities here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Righties are in a decent spot here, but I think smaller/medium stacks would work best.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Moving on to the rest of the slate that IS on both sites, we get the Blue Jays and Red Sox with Kikuchi and Eovaldi getting the start. Overall I think Boston has the edge here, mostly due to the pitching matchup, though both of them are susceptible to giving up the long ball. Might not be a bad idea to grab a few pieces of both offenses here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – Lots of RvR bats here, but Eovaldi gives up plenty of power to that side of the plate too, so don’t be afraid to try your luck here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Martinez, Bogaerts
GPP note – Much better spot for these guys, though only a couple are hitting lefties as well as I’d like to see. Still, Kikuchi is always a threat to implode, so stacking both sides of this one has merit.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Brubaker and the Pirates are up next, and their opponent will be the Brewers with Burnes on the hill. It’s hard seeing the Pirates overcome this matchup, so the focus here will probably be the other side. There might be a couple spots where we can grab some sneaky fantasy points, but for the most part, being less cute is probably better.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Hayes/Vogelbach
GPP note – Not a great spot for these guys, though a handful are hitting righties for a little bit of pop. Can’t say I like much more than some one-offs or mini-stacks, but you would have them too to yourself at least.
Brewers 5 star plays –
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adams/Narvaez
GPP note – Good all-around spot for these guys, as Brubaker is giving up similar numbers to both sides of the plate. I think they could make for some decent secondary stacks.
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs
Next up are the Rays and Cubs, with Fleming and Steele to get the start. There’s some potential for the offenses here, though it could be an all-or-nothing affair depending on how these starters are looking. Sounds like a good spot for GPP exposure!
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Franco, Arozarena/Margot
GPP note – The main bats here are all hitting lefties for power, though Steele is a bit stingy in that department. I think if you go here, you go big in hopes that he has a rough outing, as things could snowball quickly.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras/Suzuki
GPP note – Similar scenario here, though Fleming’s statcast numbers are more favorable for the Cubbies. If you run some TBR stacks, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run it back with a few CHC ones as well.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
We head to KC next, with Archer and the Twins squaring off with my Royals and Hernandez. As a fan I can’t say I’m too excited about this one, as I expect the Twins to come in and do some damage before taking a win. Maybe I’ll get lucky, but I kind of doubt it.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Correa/Polanco, Kepler/Arraez/Sano
GPP note – Hernandez hasn’t looked great and attacking KCR pitching is never a terrible idea. It’s a big ballpark but I suspect we’ll get some dingers here.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Benintendi, Perez
GPP note – Archer has given up some power but this offense is just kind of flat, and I don’t see big stacks going off. I think one-offs or mini-stacks could be okay, though.
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Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
The slate continues with Sandoval and the Angels taking on Valdez and the Astros. On paper I think the Astros should have the slight advantage here, mainly due to pitching, but my gut just wants to like the Angels. We’ll see how things play out, but either way, it should be a fun one to watch.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon
GPP note – While not a great matchup for these guys, Valdez had a rough start against Arizona last week, so it might be worth attacking him here in case he hasn’t worked the bugs out just yet.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve
GPP note – Sandoval is giving up the kind of power these guys should feast on, but they just haven’t been hitting lefties with much authority. I think I would base my decision on what kind of projected ownership they get, as a case could be made for stacking or fading.
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
It wouldn’t be a slate without a Coors game, and here we are. We’ll get the Phillies with Gibson on the mound to face Freeland and the Rockies. You know the drill by now; the pitching is cheap, the bats have an inflated price, and there will be plenty of ownership…except for that one random cheap guy who goes off the rails.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Castellanos/Hoskins/Realmuto
GPP note – It’s Coors, it’s Freeland, and it’s chalky. If you go here you’ll want to create some leverage by using wrap-around stacks or using some lower-owned secondary stacks.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Cron/Joe/Bryant
GPP note – There are a lot of RvR bats here, but they’re hitting righties just fine, so don’t expect that to cut their ownership down too much.
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west to wind down tonight’s slate, starting with Sanmartin and the Reds against Musgrove and the Padres. I suspect that this game will be a repeat of what we saw last night; a few runs to send it quietly into the night, with nothing crazy that shakes up the entire slate. Still, there could be some useful pieces to the puzzle here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto
GPP note – Musgrove probably has the upper hand here overall, but he does allow some decent power to both sides of the plate. I think a one-off or mini-stack could work, and could help a chalkier Coors lineup.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Nola/Profar
GPP note – A so-so matchup for these guys, a few of them are hitting lefties really well, so I think some smaller stacks could be good here too. I just don’t know that big stacks are the answer.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Gray and the Rangers will face Ray and the Mariners next, and that 7.5 opening total about sums up my feelings about it, too. Like the previous game, I think there could be a few useful bats here and there (the pitching too, probably), but I just have a hard time finding anything that would shake up the entire night.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Garcia/Garver
GPP note – Ray is getting his share of strikeouts but is also giving up a good chunk of power to righties, so don’t be afraid to run a bat or two against him. You might just find a homer.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Kelenic
GPP note – While not a ton to love here, the two above have some random pop against righties, and might be worth sprinkling around in a large GPP. Otherwise, meh.
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
A game that might just have some more potential is next, with Ellis and the Orioles facing Irvin and the Athletics. Granted, we’ll need the pitchers to have a bit of a rough outing for that to happen, but the signs are certainly there.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini/Mullins
GPP note – Irvin is giving up plenty of hits and lots of power to both sides, so don’t be afraid to attack him here. While most of these guys are a bit cold, sometimes they just need a pitcher coming in like Irvin is to get things rolling a bit.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Kemp/Brown
GPP note – Ellis hasn’t had a game yet this season, but was giving up some big power to lefties in spring training. Should that continue, you’ll want to have had some exposure here.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Braves and Dodgers once again, this time with Fried and Buehler on the mound. We get a modest total of 8, which kind of tells me Vegas is a bit on a the fence here as well. If they’re on their game, both pitchers could have 6 or 7 scoreless innings, but they both have their weaknesses that either offense could exploit. This one is going to take some digging, but I think it would be well worth it.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 3.5 star plays – Olson, Ozuna/Riley
GPP note – While certainly not a great matchup, Buehler has shown some issues against righties thus far this season. It might be worth having a little bit of exposure here in case that trend continues.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Freeman, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Fried can hold his own and could probably navigate the lineup without getting totally blown up, but there’s bound to be a few bumps along the way. He gives up more contact and power to righties, so that’s likely the ticket should you go here.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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