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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 4/18:
Oct 1, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Sean Manaea
- Frankie Montas
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) @ Washington Nationals (-142)
Implied Run Totals:
Diamondbacks – 3.8 IRT
Nationals – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll start in Washington where it looks like we’ll have a good amount of rain and weather risk – I’ll operate under the assumption that this game plays cleanly, but make sure to watch the MLB Weather Station for updates on this one. Madison Bumgarner will get the start for the Dbacks against a pretty below-average Nats offense in cold weather. Bumgarner hasn’t been great this season but got his pitch count up to 77 last time out, so I think he’s at least in play for an SP2 option. Josiah Gray will start for the Nats in a similar position as Bumgarner, the Dbacks lineup doesn’t scare me. He’s coming off of a really nice game against the Braves as well and has carried nearly a 25% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, David Peralta, Christian Walker
GPP Note: I think the Dbacks are a fine mini-stack, but I don’t think we need to go to much more than that on a 9-game slate.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: I don’t love this lineup but I think they can exploit the Bumgarner matchup and makes sense in this spot.
San Franciso Giants (+105) @ New York Mets (-125)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – 3.2 IRT
Mets – 3.5 IRT
Rundown:
We get another game that looks like there could be some weather issues as we head into New York, I’ll operate under the same assumption in that first game with the idea that this one will play cleanly, but obviously keep an eye on our MLB Weather Channel for updates on this one and if it’s safe for pitching. That said, Alex Cobb will take the mound for the Giants, and has been really good to start the year. He struck out 10 batters against the Padres in his first start and gets a Mets team with an implied run total of just 3.5, he’ll look like a solid pitching option on this slate. I do think Tylor Megill might be the even better option, however. Megill has at least 37 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and would expect his pitch count continues to climb. With both these pitchers being firmly in play, I think we can safely look elsewhere for bats.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: I think Megill looks the part and is in for a big season, not really a team I want to stack here with just a 3.2 implied run total.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Starling Marte
GPP Note: I do think Cobb is firmly in play as a pitching option as well, but you can make a much better case for some one-offs from the Mets than you can for the Giants.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-181)
Implied Run Totals:
Pirates – 3.8 IRT
Brewers – 5.0 IRT
Rundown:
Finally, a game without weather concerns as Milwaukee has a retractable roof, Zach Thompson will take the mound for the Pirates and looks like a solid spot for this Brewers lineup. I don’t think Thompson is a terrible pitcher but with a 20% strikeout rate and a 30+ hard contact rate in a hitters park, I would rather go to the hitters here. This Pirates bullpen isn’t good either which makes me like this Brewers stack with an implied run total of five at home. Eric Lauer will start for the Brewers and looked solid enough against Baltimore in his first start. I don’t love the price tag on him, but this Pirates lineup is not good, so you can make a case for him in all formats.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: I’m not sure I’ll stack this Pirates team at any point this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen, Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: I don’t know that they’ll be my top stack on the slate, but they’re certainly in the conversation.
Tampa Bay Rays (-144) @ Chicago Cubs (+125)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – 4.1 IRT
Cubs – 3.5 IRT
Rundown:
Shane McClanahan is always a guy I like to target in DFS due to his strikeout ability, going back to the start of last season he has a 28.1% strikeout rate and gets a great matchup with a below-average Cubs team. We do need to watch the weather here as it looks like there’s a chance the wind could be blowing to right at over 15 mph, but it’s also going to be sub-40 degrees, so again, watch that MLB Weather Station. Then we go to the Cubs who will send Kyle Hendricks to the hill, he had a great first game against the Brewers but got hit around by Pittsburgh on the road. I’m wondering if we’re going to start to see a major home/road splits season for him… he makes sense as a GPP value if you need one especially if that wind stays blowing across the field.
TBR 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: I’ll like the Rays a lot more if that wind shifts a bit and starts blowing out instead of left to right, but Hendricks can be good at limiting hard contact when he’s on.
CHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: I like McClanahan a good deal here.
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Los Angeles Angels (+136) @ Houston Astros (-160)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 4.1 IRT
Astros – 5.1 IRT
Rundown:
Michael Lorenzen will get his second start for the Angels here and looked pretty solid in his debut. He went six innings and struck out seven batters on 89 pitches while securing the win. I don’t love the matchup… at all… but think he could be sneaky for GPPs if you think his stuff is legit. The Astros will start Luis Garcia who was popular his first time out but threw just 71 pitches in four innings of work. I do think you can go back to him, I would think 71 pitches would be his floor going forward, and is a guy that has a 24.6% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. I don’t think Mike Trout will be in the lineup for the Angels either which is a huge boost to Garcia.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: It’s pretty hard for me to be interested in a Mike Trout-less Angels lineup.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: As much as I want to think Lorenzen is in play as a pitching option, this Astros lineup is stacked and is expecting some positive regression on guys like Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez who should return from the Covid list here.
Philadelphia Phillies (-163) @ Colorado Rockies (+139)
Implied Run Totals:
Phillies – 6.3 IRT
Rockies – 5.0 IRT
Rundown:
Onto Coors Field! We do get Aaron Nola starting for the Phillies who may look like a decent option here but he’s a big curveball guy and curveballs go to die in Coors Field. He has a 4.12 ERA in three games started at Coors Field in his career which really isn’t all that terrible, it’s obviously down from his normal production, but it could be much worse, and think you can go to him as a GPP pitching option. Unfortunately, we can’t say the same about Chad Kuhl who will start for the Rockies which will make this Phillies stack look like one of the better stacks on the slate.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: The home run upside is massive for this team, they’ll look like a top-tier stacking option tonight.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: More of a secondary stack for me against Nola, but it wouldn’t be the first time a high-end pitcher got hit around in Coors.
Cincinnati Reds (+146) @ San Diego Padres (-175)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 3.3 IRT
Padres – 4.3 IRT
Rundown:
Nick Lodolo will start for the Reds and heads into a big pitchers park in San Diego. Lodolo didn’t look so great in his first start against Cleveland as he struggled with command and gave up five earned runs. I don’t see a reason to get to him here even against a down offense. Sean Manaea will take the hill for the Padres and looks like a great option against a weak Reds offense with an implied run total of just 3.3. Manaea has a 25.9% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and looks like a great SP option in all formats. He’s looked awesome to start the season with at least 17.9 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Manaea will be a top pitching option for me on this slate.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: I don’t have an issue with the Padres here, they get a below-average pitching staff against the Reds.
Baltimore Orioles (+160) @ Oakland Athletics (-192)
Implied Run Totals:
Orioles – 3.2 IRT
Athletics – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
Spenser Watkins will get the ball for Baltimore and probably won’t be a guy I have much interest in here. I’ve been streaming pitchers against the Athletics this season due to how bad this lineup is, but I don’t think we need to force Watkins. The A’s will start Frankie Montas who will look like a good option against a bad Orioles offense. Going back to the start of last season he has a 26.5% strikeout rate and just a 30% hard contact rate. This Orioles lineup doesn’t scare me away either, go ahead and load up on some Montas in all formats.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Just one-offs against Montas here for me.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jed Lowrie, Sean Murphy, Christian Pache
GPP Note: This offense is just hard to look at… not really in play for me even against a bad pitching staff.
Atlanta Braves (+166) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Implied Run Totals:
Braves – 3.4 IRT
Dodgers – 4.8 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll round the slate out starting with Huascar Ynoa who had a really rough first start of the season last time out against Washington. He’s a guy that does have really nice upside with a 26.7% strikeout rate and saw him do it last season but will be volatile, so more of a tournament guy here against a really good Dodgers lineup. Then we get to Clayton Kershaw who was abruptly pulled from his perfect game bid last time out. Chop broke that one down for us last week, go check it out -> Kershaw’s Perfect Game Cut Short. That being said, he’ll look like a great option again here even against a pretty solid Braves team. He has a strikeout rate of over 30% going back to the start of last season and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down to start this year.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: I don’t see a reason to stack against Kershaw here.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Ynoa obviously has some volatility and this Dodgers lineup is dangerous, so no issue with a Dodgers stack here.
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Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Houston Astros
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber (DK – $5.4k; FD – $3.5k)
I normally try and avoid Coors Field when doing the dinger of the day, but this spot just sets up so well for Schwarber. He hit a homer yesterday and gets in these streaks where he’ll rattle off 5 home runs in a weak and now gets a week righty in Chad Kuhl, he looks like an elite option in all formats. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dinger predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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