Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Alek Manoah
- Zack Wheeler
- Matt Brash
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New York Yankees (-190) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I wonder when we might see a pulled HR by an RHB in this park. Donaldson hit the first RH HR of the season on Saturday but he went to RCF. This is a legit situation to monitor with the fence movement that Baltimore did prior to the season. Judge is in the running for my “Dinger” call but I have to debate this ballpark. Cortes looked great in his season debut and should carry some ownership. I don’t mind him but he definitely could be limited to 5-6 innings.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Judge is 3 for 4 with 2 HRs and a BB against Zimmermann.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Base stealers are 6 for 6 against Cortes since the start of the 2021 season.
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays (-260)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Adam Oller
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I know the A’s have been doing damage to SPs the last few days, but I love me some Manoah. He has a ton of talent and the A’s aren’t very good overall. Oller did not fare well at all in his debut and he should experience some turbulence in this one as well.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chad Pinder
GPP Note: No interest in OAK and probably won’t end up with any Pinder either, to be transparent.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Raimel Tapia
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: TOR should end up being one of the highest-owned stacks on the slate.
Philadelphia Phillies (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Surprisingly there are a few bats with solid BvP in their favor in this game. That’s tough to see given we have a total of just 7.5 runs. Wheeler is going to be one of my favorite SPs on this main slate. He struck out 17 in 13 innings against Miami in 2021. Hernandez struggled in his first start of 2022 but he should bounce back a bit. He only threw 5 innings against PHI last season but he allowed just 3 hits. Unfortunately, 2 of those 3 hits ended up being HRs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Harper and Hoskins are 8 for 19 with 4 HRs against Hernandez.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Sanchez has 5 extra-base hits over his last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants (-130) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I think this could be a sneaky spot for Civale. He has traditionally been at his best against LHBs, which I think people will blindly stack from SF. Wood is an interesting option as CLE has been rolling to begin the season but they can be shut down as they aren’t going to be very consistent as the season rolls on.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Darin Ruf
GPP Note: If Bart is in the lineup (I doubt he’s going to be), he would be a strong GPP play.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Ramirez is leading baseball in RBI to begin the season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rays – Bullpen Game (have read that Romero may follow an opener, he was lit up in his debut)
White Sox – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If you are a returning reader of my articles, you know how much I hate bullpen games. They are annoying to watch and even more annoying to try and break down. I think they do more damage to a team’s staff than they are intended to. With that said, it’s really tough to stack against a bullpen game because of the manager’s ability to plan out match-ups for his team’s benefit. Velasquez looked solid in his CWS debut but I think that’s going to be a short-lived positive as I could see the Rays putting up 4-5 on him.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Velasquez gave up 23 HRs in 94.1 innings during the 2021 season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Abreu has 3 HRs (5 ABs) against 1 of TB’s bullpen arms (Jason Adam).
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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-125)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. My initial thought is that I want to stack both offenses in this game. I actually am a fan of Hernandez but he was bad during ST and he was roughed up in his 1st start of the season. Alexander looked strong in his first start but then hit a wall and was smacked around. Unless we get some favorable wind for pitching, I have to lean towards the over here.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Hernandez is a reverse splits SP.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Perez hit 18 HRs in 172 ABs against LHPs in 2021.
Washington Nationals (-130) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Quintana looked great in his first start while Corbin looked horrendous. I said this during the Nationals’ run to the WS a couple of seasons ago, but their use of Corbin in the postseason was going to mess him up. He hasn’t looked the same since that run. The Pirates are a team that I plan to use against LHPs for much of the season, but not with a lot of shares.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Cruz is 7 for 23 with an HR against Quintana.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Marisnick, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Marisnick is 4 for 5 against Corbin.
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10. As a Twins fan, I need this offense to wake up. Correa can get hot at any point and he loves hitting in Boston. Ober threw an absolute gem against Boston last season. Wacha is actually in a decent spot but the game has a double-digit run total so that’s going to scare people away.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Arraez is 6 for 14 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Ober allowed 20 HRs in 92.1 innings last season.
Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. The Angels’ bats have awoken in this series so we can definitely ride them again. I seem to always want to stack against Martin Perez. I haven’t had great success over the years in doing so but he does have some games over the last couple of seasons in which he has given up 3 HRs. Suarez was hit harder by LHBs in 2021 but if we go back to the prior two years, it was RHBs that absolutely destroyed him. He looked decent in his 2022 debut but he had a walking issue and we know how much I HATE walks.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: The three above are 13 for 45 against Perez.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Suarez K’d 14 in 14.2 innings against Texas in 2021.
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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies (-135)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. Coors field with a couple of LHPs on the mound is extremely intriguing to me. I am more interested in the COL side of the match-up as I do think that Gomber is a solid SP. I am curious as to the weather for this game because I do want to see some runs scored. Contreras has some positive BvP but he might not be in the lineup (off-days for C’s on Sundays).
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Suzuki is 3 for 9 with 3 extra-base hits against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: COL is 30 for 98 against LHPs so far this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I expect Hudson to have some extreme ups and downs as he gets back to the every 5th-day grind of being an SP. Ashby slides into a start but it’s a difficult one. He has actually had strong success against STL in his young MLB career but they are DESTROYING LHPs to begin the 2022 season. I am not sure Ashby will offer much more than 5 innings but he’s an interesting GPP leverage play at SP.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Cardinals bats have an OPS of 1.174 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Yelich is 2 for 6 with 2 HRs and 3 BBs against Hudson.
Houston Astros (-130) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Mariners – Matt Brash
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Brash really impressed me in his debut at the MLB level. He has a massive fastball but he didn’t get heater happy and he actually pitched backward early on, throwing nearly 70% curves (maybe sliders, if the service I was using was categorized incorrectly). Urquidy is always a steady option and he has had a TON of success against Seattle so far. There are plenty of Ks to be had in the Seattle lineup, especially in the bottom half.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Houston has an OBP of just .299 against RHPs so far in 2022.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Seattle’s roster is just 6 for 28 against Urquidy.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (-190)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. Castellanos shouldn’t offer much more than 3-4 innings of work as he steps into a rotation spot. Peterson looked solid following Walker when he left with an injury and he has flashed upside at the MLB level. He gets a VERY positive match-up as the D’Backs are hitting .135 as a team so far.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Marte has an HR against Peterson while Kelly has traditionally hit LHPs well.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Lindor has an OPS of 1.339 over the last 6 games.
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres (-135)
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. Elder has a bright future at the MLB level but this might not be a great spot for him, on Sunday Night baseball. Darvish looked great to begin the season and then he was absolutely torched by the Giants in his second start. I think that SD is becoming more of a hitter’s park after watching some of the balls in this series carry, especially to LF.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Olson and Ozuna are a combined 19 for 52 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Elder struggled with LHBs in his MLB debut (5 for 16 with 3 extra-base hits).
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, NY Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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