Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
Early slates
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
We’ll kick things off with the Diamondbacks and Mets, with Gallen and Carrasco getting the start. Both sides have some decent pitching in this one, so it may not be quite as one-sided as yesterday’s bout.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Peralta
GPP note – Some reverse splits action going on here, with Carrasco allowing more power to righties than lefties.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Escobar, McNeil
GPP note – Not as good of a matchup as they had yesterday, but Gallen is allowing some power to righties as well.
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
Up next are the Rays and White Sox, with Kluber and Kopech on the hill. Kluber will face an old divisional rival, so we’ll see how well the White Sox remember him. The Rays haven’t seen Kopech before though, so that might give him a small bump.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco/B Lowe, Choi
GPP note – Good spot for the lefties here; Kopech is allowing plenty of contact and power to them
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Sheets, Robert/Anderson
GPP note – Lefties would be in the better spot here, except that there aren’t many here to choose from. The rest are hitting them well, so consider them for contrarian stacks. There’s plenty of BvP history here as well.
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll head to our next game between the Athletics and Blue Jays, with Blackburn and Ryu getting the start. We get a total of 9 here, most of it coming from Toronto, unsurprisingly. It’s business as usual for them, but I think a few small pieces of the Oakland offense could be useful to us.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Andrus, Pinder
GPP note – Ryu is allowing power to righties and when these guys get ahold of the ball, they tend to hit it hard too. A good recipe for one-offs and mini-stacks.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer/Guerrero
GPP note – Blackburn is allowing plenty to both sides of the plate, but he is also getting his strikeouts. You could consider hedging a little here, but if not, grab some stacks for the power upside.
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
The Braves and Padres are up next, with Blackburn and Anderson getting the start. Both offenses could be in a decent spot here, except that they’re both running a little flat. It might be worth digging in to find some gems, as they probably won’t be overly popular and it just takes a few good swings to get things rolling.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Olson
GPP note – Similar to Blackburn, Martinez is allowing power (mostly to righties) but has some K’s to go with it. This offense is less potent though, with only Olson and d’Arnaud really hitting righties for much power right now.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado
GPP note – Very much the same situation as Atlanta, except that Anderson is allowing more power to lefties (though still plenty to righties), and he’s not getting as many strikeouts.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Next up are the Tigers and Royals for some more divisional goodness. I think it’s more of the same here; on paper I think KC has a slight edge, but in reality, it’s likely another coin flip. I don’t know that there’s a ton of upside in this game, but having a few key pieces wouldn’t hurt.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez/Schoop/Candelario
GPP note – Bubic got roughed up by Cleveland in his last start, and knowing how he is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit pounce on him some here. I don’t know that big stacks are the answer, but maybe some secondary ones?
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Benintendi, Merrifield/Perez
GPP note – A decent matchup for the lefties, but the main righties are worth a look if you decide to run some stacks here, as Manning allows big hits to both sides.
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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
We head up to Boston for our next game, with the Twins and Red Sox facing off again. Gray and Houck will get the start here, and both are coming in looking fairly similar. I don’t think that our starters will be able to find enough for a big score, but the offenses are both potent and worth a look.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa, Polanco
GPP note – Houck is allowing equal power to both sides, so don’t be afraid to use the RvR bats which are hitting just fine.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
GPP note – Same as above, but it’s mostly Devers that’s hitting righties well right now. The upside is there though, so they could be an option to pay up for in tournaments as people look for cheaper alternatives.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
Up next are the Giants and Guardians, with DeSclafani and Quantrill getting the start. While I do think that the Giants have the “better” matchup, I think the Cleveland offense has a better chance of pulling through, so I’m more interested in them for fantasy purposes.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Belt, Bart
GPP note – Some reverse splits in play here, so don’t overlook the righties (Quantrill is allowing about double the ISO to righties).
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – It’s a tougher matchup for these guys, but they seem to be able to overcome that, or at least they can right now. They’re hitting righties for power so don’t be afraid to go back to them again here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Phillies and Marlins are up next, with Suarez and Rogers as our starters. It’s kind of an unexciting and underwhelming looking game, especially for the home team. If anything fun happens it’ll probably be from the Phillies’ offense, so I’d look there for our purposes today.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Castellanos/Harper, Hoskins/Realmuto
GPP note – Rogers isn’t allowing a ton but isn’t striking people out left and right either, so they should at least get plenty of chances to put the ball in play. We’ll see if their big power against lefties makes any use of that.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler?
GPP note – Pretty much the same idea as above, except that these guys are not hitting lefties very well at all. I could see Suarez skating through without much excitement from either end.
Washington Nationals at Pittsburg Pirates
We round out the early games with the Nationals and Pirates, and we’ll have (another) Rogers and Wilson as our starters for this one. Both offenses are facing some fairly soft pitching here, so I think we could see some afternoon fireworks from both sides.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Cruz/Ruiz/Franco
GPP note – Wilson is allowing plenty to both sides of the plate, and the four above are all finding good contact against righties.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes/Reynolds
GPP note – Rogers has traditional splits, with most of the action coming against him from righties. The Pirates are hitting lefties well, so I think we could see some fantasy goodness from these guys, too.
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Main slate
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
We move on to the main slate now, starting with the Angels and Rangers. Syndergaard and Hearn get the start here, and we get the highest non-Coors total of the slate here with 9.5 runs, even with the decent starters.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon
GPP note – Hearn is cheap but he’s not a pushover, though reverse splits are in play here. He’s strict to lefties so maybe Ohtani will have a tougher time in his earlier at-bats (he’s 1 for 7 with 4 strikeouts against him).
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager/Miller
GPP note – Syndergaard throws hard but velocity in gives more velocity out should they get ahold of it. There’s still a healthy total to this game, so don’t be afraid to go back to these teams.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
We head to Camden Yards for our next matchup with the Yankees and Orioles. Taillon and Wells will get the nod here, and while both teams did fall flat on us yesterday, they’re still in a good spot here. It’s a good alternative to the previous game and Coors on this smaller slate.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton/Rizzo
GPP note – Wells gives up power to both sides, though more to lefties. They let us down yesterday, but such is baseball.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, Mountcastle/Mancini
GPP note – Taillon has had some power issues with righties, so you could grab a few of them to be a little different.
St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Our next game features the Cardinals and Brewers, with Matz and Houser as the starters. I don’t think there’s much that really jumps off the page out of this one, but sometimes it’s those games that wind up doing the most damage.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Goldschmidt, DeJong
GPP note – Lefties are in a decent spot here, though there aren’t many to choose from. The main three righties are still hitting for power, so they’re worth having some exposure to.
Brewers 5 star plays –
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich/McCutchen, Brosseau/Taylor/Hiura
GPP note – Righties are in the better spot here, though it’s the cheaper guys who are hitting them better right now. Consider those three above as a lower budget pivot to some other targets.
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
We head to our Coors game next, with Leiter and Senzatela leading the Cubs and Rockies. Leiter hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2018, so what better place to come back to than Coors? As for Senzatela, he’s surely familiar with this place, but we know how quickly he can get shelled.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Contreras, Suzuki
GPP note – There’s a little bit of BvP here but not much, though that won’t slow them down from being chalky. It is Coors, after all.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Joe
GPP note – These bats will be popular too, especially with a guy making his return to the MLB here. Keep an eye on ownership projections to see if there are any advantages to be had.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
We head out west for our next game, with Verlander and the Astros facing Flexen and the Mariners. This game nets us our lowest total at 7.5, and that seems reasonable considering the starters and how the offenses have been (granted Seattle had some fun last night, but they probably won’t have as much luck tonight).
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Alvarez/Bregman/Brantley
GPP note – Flexen offers power to both sides of the plate, and while these guys haven’t been going bonkers like they are capable of, that game is coming.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger/Winker (some BvP experience)
GPP note – Not a good matchup for these guys, though they will at least carry some momentum from scoring 11 runs last night. Otherwise, there is at least some BvP here.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Reds and Dodgers, who will send Greene and Urias to kick things off. We get a decent total of 9 here, though most of it comes from the home team. Urias isn’t invincible though, so maybe a few parts of the Cincinnati offense could be useful.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Pham
GPP note – While there’s not a ton to love here, Urias is allowing some power, and mostly to lefties. Nobody will be on these guys, so you could take a few pivots here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner, Smith/Muncy
GPP note – No BvP but with a 5.5+ total, that probably won’t matter. A good alternative to Coors for some primary stacks. The entire lineup is in play here, so don’t forget about the bottom of the order’s upside.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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