Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/13:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Fried
- Framber Valdez
- Shane McClanahan
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Milwaukee Brewers (-180) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. With the way the Brewers pitchers have been to begin the season, I have no idea what to expect from Burnes in his 2nd start. They keep walking guys and it’s really frustrating to see because this is stuff that should have been worked on this spring. Means threw a no-hitter last year so we know what he’s capable of. I will have a few more stacks of Baltimore bats than I would have thought but here we are.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Brosseau, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Brosseau is 5 for 11 with 4 HRs against Means.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Burnes struggled mightily against the Cubs in his first start.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-135)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Yankees -Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Berrios was atrocious to begin the season while Cole was really bad himself. Both guys should be better in this start (let’s be honest, it can’t be much worse). I think we can stack either side at a really low ownership % in some GPPs but it’s not a lock spot for bats. Both sides have plenty of power in the lineup and power wins GPPs.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: 13 of the projected lineup’s 29 hits against Cole have gone for extra bases.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Judge is 7 for 14 against Berrios.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. We could see a 1-0 game in this spot or we could see a 5-4 game with 6 or 7 HRs by the end of 9 innings. Nola is absolutely elite at home but he is capable of providing 1 blow-up inning that ruins a great start. We know how elite Scherzer has been and might still be. His issue over the last couple of years has been allowing HRs, which PHI should have no problem hitting this season. Their BvP against Scherzer is really ugly so maybe he just dominates them.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Alonso is 10 for 32 with 3 HRs and 2 2Bs against Nola.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: JT Realmuto is just 5 for 54 with 15 Ks against Scherzer.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Tristan McKenzie
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Lodolo is a top prospect and he’s making his debut in this game. Normally I would be pretty pumped but this Cleveland team is hitting the &$%# out of the ball right now. They have scored 10+ runs in 3 straight games. McKenzie didn’t look too bad in his relief appearance to begin the season so I have some positive thoughts about his appearance here. He allowed more HRs to RHBs in 2021, so that’s something to pay attention to.
CLE 5-star plays: Steven Kwan
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Owen Miller
GPP Note: Kwan is 10 for 15 with 7 BBs to begin his MLB career.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Naquin has an OPS of 1.152 to begin the season.
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this SP match-up, both in real life and for DFS purposes. Montas is really just out there auditioning for teams and from what I am hearing, if he has a strong performance, this could be his last Oakland start. McClanahan was expected to take a leap forward this season and this A’s squad, despite the last 2 days, isn’t good. I will have a few mini-stacks of TB should the trio I list below do their damage.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: The A’s bats have come alive in this series but I think that comes to an end in this one.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Franco and Choi are a combined 19 for 33 to begin the season.
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Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I am pumped to see E-Rod against his former team, who can hit LHPs. I really wouldn’t be shocked if this game went well under the 8 run total. The weather isn’t going to be the greatest and both SPs can be nasty. Of the two offenses, Detroit has been better to begin the season but we know how dangerous Boston is at the plate. Pay attention to the weather to see how it might affect both sides.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team average of just .192 to begin the season.
DET 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Meadows is 8 for 24 with 5 extra-base hits against Eovaldi
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-215)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a strong spot for Fried as he is just so good at this point. I want to say he was top 4 or so in the NL in terms of Cy Young odds coming into this season. Gray was one of the pieces that the Nationals received from the Dodgers in the Turner-Scherzer deal. He looked great to begin his first start but the wheels came off a bit and he ended up giving up 4 runs in 4 innings of work. It’s a tough spot for him but I wouldn’t mind a share or two for GPP purposes with his K ability.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Cruz was scratched yesterday but I always love him against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Albies and Riley both have HRs against Gray.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Twins – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. As a Twins fan, I am pumped to see them get to face off with Clayton Kershaw. I have enjoyed Kershaw’s career a ton and I think guys are excited to face him (not from a, “I can destroy him” standpoint). We know the Twins can hit LHPs pretty well but Kershaw obviously isn’t your average LHP. Paddack is making his Twins debut and as a Twins fan, I am scared. I have been pretty anti-Paddack for a couple of seasons now so the trade really bothered me.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: The trio above is 8 for 15 against Paddack.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Correa is 4 for 13 against Kershaw and he doubled twice last night.
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Chicago Cubs (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hendricks is in a great spot but is this one of those letdown starts after surprising on opening day? Thompson looked good with Miami last season so it doesn’t shock me that he won the #5 job in Pittsburgh. Suzuki has looked like he belongs at the MLB level but I think he’s most comfortable against LHPs right now. I will ride the wave until he shows that RHPs can give him some fits at this level. Hayes is always a play for me, or at least until he gets hurt again (I hope he doesn’t end up injury-prone forever).
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Happ and Suzuki are a combined 12 for 22 to begin the season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Hendricks may not have a start with more Ks than he did on opening day, this season.
Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals (-150)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This was supposed to be Hicks’ spot in the rotation but it looks like the Cardinals are going to skip him to keep Wainwright on his schedule. We get a throwback SP match-up but just 1 guy intrigues me (Wainwright). I always use Wainwright when he’s at home, especially the last couple of seasons. The Cardinals’ offense is doing a ton of damage at this point so we should ride them until they go cold.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Benintendi is 7 for 17 with more walks than Ks to begin the season.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: STL has 17 extra-base hits to begin the season.
Seattle Mariners (-115) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. We do have to pay attention to the weather in Chicago today. Ray has been absolutely dominant against this White Sox squad. Keuchel could get knocked around a bit as I like the composition of the Mariners lineup against LHPs. At some point, Julio Rodriguez is going to have his welcome to the big leagues moment.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Keuchel was ATROCIOUS this spring.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: The projected CWS lineup is just 8 for 54 with 21 Ks against Ray.
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Houston Astros (-150) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9. Valdez is in a great spot against the weak-hitting D’Backs lineup. Kelly has the ability to shut teams down as he looked strong in his first start of the season. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game plays to a 7-run total instead of the Vegas total of 9. The Astros need to get Alvarez and Tucker rolling at the plate to be really dangerous.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Bregman has started the season 7 for 18.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Arizona is hitting just .130 as a team to begin the season.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (-125)
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. This is another excellent SP match-up today. Manaea looked spectacular in his SD debut while we know how strong Webb can be. We just saw the Giants’ offense explode against Darvish and the Padres on Tuesday night. I know the Padres have been solid to begin the season but it’s been more SP than hitter-based. I kind of think that we see this game end up something like 3-1 or 3-2.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Hosmer and Grisham are a combined 7 for 18 against Webb.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Flores is 4 for 10 against Manaea
Stacks of the Day: All Day (slates are broken down strangely)
- Seattle Mariners
- St Louis Cardinals
- LA Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Meadows
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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