Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/12:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zack Wheeler
- Luis Garcia
- Shane Bieber
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Milwaukee Brewers (-170) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Orioles – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Seeing rumors that the Orioles will run out Alexander Wells (an LHP). After the Brewers’ performance Monday night, I have to back off of them until they start showing up. Lauer should be in a plus spot but there are a few Orioles bats that hit LHPs well. I am really curious to see what Camden Yards turns into for RHBs after moving the fences back.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: The Brewers are striking out 9 times per game to begin the season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Baltimore should struggle for much of the season but it looks like Mateo is going to steal bases whenever he is on base.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-120)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Yankees -Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I hope the weather is warmer in NY for this game as I think we could see some runs on the scoreboard. I wouldn’t be shocked to see 5 HRs in this game, based on player histories (BvP). We know that the Blue Jays are always in play and we should consider the Yankees the same, thanks to their power.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Cortes gave up 2 HRs in 6 innings against TOR last season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Judge has 2 HRs in 7 ABs against Kikuchi.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-160)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Megill was super impressive to begin the season and we saw the Phillies bats struggle for much of Monday night. Wheeler is making his season debut and he’s a popular Cy Young candidate in the NL. I very much could see this game playing to the under with those two on the mound. Megill did struggle considerably with LHBs in 2021 so there is a route for PHI to put up some runs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: JD Davis is 5 for 13 with an HR and 2 2Bs against Wheeler.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: LHBs had an OPS of .995 against Megill in 2021.
Cleveland Guardians (-120) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both Bieber and Mahle looked like aces in their first start of the 2022 season. Mahle struggled more at home in 2021 so this isn’t the best spot for him. The plus side is that the Guardians lineup isn’t overly dangerous despite coming in putting up 27 runs over the last 2. Bieber did have some control issues on opening day but I would guess he gets that figured out going forward. My dude Steven Kwan has reached base 15 times over his first 4 games at the MLB level.
CLE 5-star plays: Steven Kwan
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: Steven Kwan is 9 for 13 and has an OPS of 1.789 so far.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Votto is 4 for 12 with 2 2Bs against Bieber.
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (-200)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Adam Oller
Rays – Tommy Romero
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will be honest, I know next to nothing about the scheduled SPs for this game. Oller struck out 9 in spring training games but he did allow 7 runs in 6.1 innings. He’s 27 so he’s not some top-tier type prospect. He did have a solid 2021 in AA and AAA so there might be a little something in his arm and we know that TB strikes out a decent amount. Romero has some really impressive minor league numbers so there’s a lot of upside in him, especially against Oakland. He started on opening day for AAA, throwing 3.2 innings of 1 hit baseball.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: OPS of just .581 so far this season.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Franco and Choi are a combined 14 for 25 to begin the season.
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Boston Red Sox (-135) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. I expect to see some runs scored in this game. We can never trust Rich Hill and Alexander is keeping this rotation spot warm for Michael Pineda. There are some guys on both teams that can destroy LHPs but there are also some guys that can strike out a decent amount, as well. I am sure we will have to watch out for some weather in Detroit because it’s April here in the upper midwest.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Bobby Dalbec
GPP Note: The three above hit 27 HRs against LHPs in 2021.
DET 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Baez has 2 game-winning hits in his first 4 games as a Detroit Tiger.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-160)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Braves – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Will be really interesting to see who the Braves ride within this match-up. I have seen Toussaint rumored to be called up but that’s a weird thing considering they told him that there weren’t enough MLB innings for him. This should be the normal start for Fried to make his 2nd start but maybe they push him back a day early in the season. Corbin doesn’t match up all that well with the Braves’ RH power bats.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Soto and Cruz will end up being one of my highest-owned mini-stacks by the end of the season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Albies is 10 for 25 with 6 extra-base hits against Corbin.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Andrew Heaney
Twins – Chris Archer
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. The Twins have won the last 2 and really should have taken 3 of 4 from the Mariners. The Dodgers struggled in Colorado so it’s an interesting match-up. We also get a couple of pitchers trying to salvage their MLB careers at this point in Archer and Heaney. I would not be shocked to see 12+ runs scored in this game.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Mookie is 12 for 36 with 4 HRs, 2 2Bs, and 9 BBs against Archer.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Buxton looks like he did until he got hurt last season, just killing it.
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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Pirates might just be a sneaky team against LHPs this season. They knocked Matz around over the weekend and I can see Chavis-Reynolds-Hayes being a tough trio to navigate. Thompson impressed me a bit with Miami last season but he finds himself in a tough spot. The Pirates aren’t going to provide him much for runs but he is going to get his shot at a full-time rotation spot.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Suzuki has 3 hits and 4 walks through his first 3 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Reynolds has 2 HRs in 12 PAs against Smyly.
Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hudson makes his return and I am really intrigued. If he’s able to avoid Benintendi, I think he gets a somewhat cold KC Royals offense. He threw just 5 innings this spring so I have to assume he’s going to see just 4-5 innings if all goes well for him. Lynch was solid this spring, despite allowing plenty of baserunners. I just don’t think this is a great match-up for him as the top-half of the Cardinals lineup can destroy LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr.
GPP Note: Benintendi is rolling at the plate with 7 hits and 3 walks through 4 games.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: RHBs had an OPS of .889 against Lynch in 2021.
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels (-170)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am really excited to see if Luzardo can finally put it together at the MLB level. He’s been such a hyped prospect for years and it’s now his time to show it. Sandoval was scratched from his first start this season with arm fatigue. I don’t like hearing that right out of the gate so we might have to play a bit of wait and see with him, despite it being a decent match-up.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Unfortunately the “hottest’ hitters for MIA are all left-handed.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Ohtani does have an HR against Luzardo.
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Matt Brash
White Sox – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Brash was ridiculously impressive this spring and came out of nowhere (in my opinion) to win the 5th spot in the rotation. He has massive K upside and he allowed just 5 baserunners in 9.1 spring innings. He struck out 142 in just 97.1 MILB innings last season. Velasquez is just hoping his MLB career continues as he has really fallen off.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: LHBs had an OPS of .937 against Velasquez in 2021.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Robert and Abreu are 9 for 24 so far this season.
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Houston Astros (-145) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarrner
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9.5. Luis Garcia is going to be one of my favorite GPP pitching options, despite a high total. I think he takes a step forward after a pretty strong rookie season. Bumgarner is a guy that I never want to bet against but I could also see a couple of HRs from the Astros, especially from Bregman with how he has started the season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Altuve is 9 for 26 with 3 HRs against Bumgarner.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: The D’Backs are hitting .129 as a team to begin the season.
San Diego Padres (-120) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. Darvish looked great to begin the season and I expect this game to be pretty low-scoring (like Vegas believes). Cobb is an interesting SP option who has always flashed strong stuff but consistency is his issue. A lot of smart baseball people think he takes a step in the right direction under the Giants brass, like a lot of pitchers have.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Hosmer and Machado have 4 HRs in 43 ABs against Cobb.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Yastrzemski is 4 for 10 with 3 HRs against Darvish.
Colorado Rockies @ Texas Rangers (-160)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 10.5. We should see some HRs hit in this game. I love the Rockies against LHPs with the lineup that they are able to run out there. Kuhl always flashed ability with the Pirates but he seemed to hit a wall after a few innings and would get hit hard. I think he’s in a tough spot with some of the LH power that Texas can trot out there.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Cron is 7 for 21 with 7 RBI against Perez.
TEX 5-star plays: Brad Miller
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: LHBs had an OPS of about 100 points higher than RHBs against Kuhl last season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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