Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a fairly wide range of pitchers today, ranging from bullpen starters to solid mid/upper-range options, to some once high-end pitchers that are looking to find their way again in 2022. It could be a telling day to see where some of them are at, so be sure to follow along and review the day once the dust is settled. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with the Athletics and Phillies. This game has a total of 9, with Vegas (and myself) liking the home team to win it. This will be Eflin’s first start since July of last season, as well as the first time most of the A’s will face him. That matchup could go either way, so it might be worth having a touch of exposure to those two sides in this one (mostly due to how cheap the A’s are).
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Kemp
GPP note – While none of these guys stand out, they’re all pretty cheap and Eflin hasn’t had a full start in a while
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Castellanos, Gregorious
GPP note – While Jefferies isn’t a gas can, he does give up some power to lefties, so I would attack from there
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up are the Orioles and Ray, with their total of 8.5. Two teams ago, Kluber was nasty and almost always a threat for a 10 strikeout performance. I hope he returns to that, but we’ll see how the season goes. It’s hard to not want to take him, since this Baltimore team can have some strikeout issues of their own. As for the Rays, they’ll face a newer guy in Wells, who will have his work cut out for him against this potent offense.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays, Odor
GPP note – Hays and Odor both have a couple of homers off of Kluber in 6 at-bats each
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – B lowe, Franco/Arozarena
GPP note – Zunino has a homer against Wells, but nothing else to really note
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Next up are the White Sox and Tigers. They carry a total of 8, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sox grab most of them. Not only is Skubal known for being soft to righties, he’ll get to face 8 of them in this lineup.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Robert/Jimenez
GPP note – A decent amount of BvP here, I think these guys will post up a nice chunk of runs today
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez/Candelario/Schoop/Grossman
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, but Kopech does give up some power to lefties, so you could sprinkle a few of them around if you’re looking for some lower-owned options
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Next up are the Reds and Braves, and we’re back up to a 9 total with this one. Anderson gives up power to both sides (more to lefties), and Greene is a new guy who the Braves have not yet faced. They’re not quite the Braves of last season, so this one might be a little more evenly matched than Vegas is implying.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Pham/India
GPP note – Anderson gives up power to both sides, so this could be a good spot for the Reds to do some damage
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Rosario
GPP note – They’ll face a new pitcher (who carries some hype) without some of their big guns from last year. Might still be worth a look, but maybe not worth the 5+ IRT Vegas is giving them
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
We’ll head to Washington for our next game, with the Mets vs Nationals and the 9.5 total from Vegas. I think the Mets are more worthy of their 5+ IRT than the Braves are, personally. Carrasco used to be a solid pitcher for Cleveland, so we’ll see if he can get back to that and keep the Nats down.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, Nimmo/Marte
GPP note – Fedde gave up tons of contact and power to both sides last season, and if that continues today, the Mets will have a field day with him
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Carrasco showed some reverse splits issues last season, so perhaps the Washington righties could be of use?
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Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
We get another 9.5 total here with the Rangers and Blue Jays, and if Ryu isn’t on point, I could see this one going over fairly easily. While the Jays only have one lefty to start against Howard, keep in mind that he was soft to both sides of the plate, so the righties are squarely in play here, too.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Garcia/Garver
GPP note – Ryu is a textbook traditional splits pitcher, so focusing on the righties here is the way
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Springer/Guerrero
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Hernandez, Tapia
GPP note – Lots of firepower here against a pitcher that gave up lots of contact (along with some power to righties and lots to lefties), so there’s a lot to love here
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Next up are the Guardians taking on my Royals, and we drop down to an 8.5 total for this one. I think that’s pretty fair, though I’ll give the edge to KC since they’ve got a fair amount of BvP against Quantril, with almost none for Cleveland against Bubic.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez/Reyes, Straw/Rosario
GPP note – No BvP to look at here, if you value that sort of thing
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield/Perez, Benintendi/Dozier
GPP note – A good chunk of BvP here, including home runs for 3 of the 4 above (not Merrifield)
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
The Mariners and Twins are next, and they also sport an 8.5 total. I think there are a few key guys to watch here, but outside of them, I think this one might be a little quiet.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Suarez/Haniger
GPP note – Big reverse splits for Ober last season, so consider trying out some righties here
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Correa, Buxton/Sano
GPP note – Gonzales didn’t give up a ton of contact towards the end of last season, but when he did it was for power (more to righties than lefties)
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Another 8.5 total, the Pirates and Cardinals are our next matchup. This one has “home team” written all over it, so we’ll see if the Cardinals can come through for some DFS goodness.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Matz can pitch well and didn’t give up a ton of power last season, so I’m not very excited about these guys
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Goldschmidt, Dickerson/Carlson
GPP note – Wilson gives up power to both sides (and lots of contact to lefties), so these guys are much more interesting. Not much of a strikeout pitcher, either
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
We head north for our final main slate game, with the Brewers and Cubs and their 7.5 total (which is the lowest on the day). As the total would imply, there’s not a ton of love about the bats here, certainly not with two solid pitchers going at it.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames
GPP note – Some BvP for Adames, and he can hit for power. Stroman had some reverse splits in that regard, so he could be worth sprinkling around
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Contreras?
GPP note – They’ve seen Peralta a fair amount but couldn’t help but strikeout against him, and that probably continues here. Not much to love with these guys
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Late slates
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
We head to Coors and a breath of fresh air to kick off the afternoon games, with a nice total of 11. The Rockies will host the Dodgers again here, with Urias and Senzatela taking the mound. The LA lefties are in a good spot here, so we’ll see if they can send a few over the fence.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Muncy
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Turner/Turner
GPP note – While the lefties are in a good spot, don’t forget about the righties who can hit for power, too
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, McMahon/Cron
GPP note – Urias can handle himself at Coors and was pretty strict last season, and I suspect that’ll continue today. McMahon and Cron have a homer against him, but it took 28 at-bats to get them. Worth having exposure to, but LA is more exciting
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Another 7.5 total, we get the Marlins and Giants next. While the Giants are favored, I actually think the Marlins have a decent shot at the upset here, as I like their matchup a little better. We’ll see how that goes, but if they win, you heard it here first!
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler, Chisholm/Sanchez
GPP note – Some decent power from the three above, and I think going with smaller groups here would be better than full stacks
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Crawford/Belt, Yastrzemski/Flores
GPP note – Rogers had some solid numbers last season and I think he can hold his own here. Crawford/Flores had the best numbers going into this matchup, so they might be the best options against him. No BvP for any of these guys doesn’t help any.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
We stay on the west coast for the Astros and Angels, this one with a 9.5 total. We get some soft pitching here, so I think that total is pretty easily obtainable.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley/Alvarez, Bregman
GPP note – Suarez was very soft to lefties (though a bit strict to righties), so be sure to have some exposure to the LvR bats in this one. Otherwise, basically everyone is in play here
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon/Walsh
GPP note – Urquidy was also soft to lefties (righties too), so these guys are all fair game too. I could see this game competing with, or overtaking, the Coors game
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
We round out the afternoon games with the Padres and Diamondbacks, and Vegas has given them a 9 total. I think it’s a little optimistic to have them so close to the previous game, considering how much better the starting pitching is here. While Smith isn’t exactly a stud, he can hold his own and keep the contact down, and we know what Snell is capable when he’s on his game.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Nola/Voit
GPP note – Smith can be very strict to righties, but did have some power issues to lefties, so I don’t mind taking a few shots there
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte?
GPP note – Snell can shut down an offense on a good day, and this one isn’t exactly threatening. Could be a big day for him and a big flop for these guys. These is a little bit of BvP (Marte does have a homer against him), but not much else stands out.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
We’ll wrap up the day with our showdown game, a good ol’ Red Sox & Yankees game. Vegas is giving this one a 9, but if you want a 10, be sure to check out the showdown slate notes on the coach’s notes page!
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays -Bogaerts/Devers
GPP note – A good chunk of BvP and a decent matchup for those who haven’t seen him, there could be something here
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Judge, Rizzo
GPP note – I think the Red Sox get the better matchup, but surely they’ll do something at home against these guys. I just don’t think they’ll go off the rails
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- Chicago White Sox
- Kansas City Royals
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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