In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Sep 23, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy (13) watches his ball on a two run home run in the tenth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
SP Chris Bassitt $8000
NYM @ WAS
There are two standout pitchers for today’s main slate. One is Justin Verlander and the other is Chris Bassitt. Joe Musgrove has a favorable matchup but many will pay the extra $200 to get up to Verlander. Starting pitchers have not been going deep for the first two days of the season. This should continue for each starter’s first few outings. Since this is happening across the league, it is not going to be an issue for Bassitt. Tylor Megill went 5 innings on 68 pitches and Max Scherzer pitched 6 innings on 80 pitches. That will be the range Bassitt lands in today. The Mets acquired Bassitt last month from the Athletics. He is an all-star who put up a 12-4 record with a 3.15ERA last season. Bassitt has a 23.5% k rate and 6% bb rate.
Bassitt is a groundball machine when facing LHBs. He has a 51.1% groundball rate compared to 34.6% against LHBs. Other than this, his splits are pretty close. Bassitt actually has a slightly higher k rate when facing lefty bats. Washington’s lineup features some hitters who have an above-average walk rate. They are Cesar Hernandez, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, and Lane Thomas. Bassitt’s low walk rate should help keep these Nationals off the base paths. His ability to induce groundballs can get him deeper into the game and rack up fantasy points off of innings pitched. Noah Syndergaard features more boom-bust potential than Bassitt. He is in a tougher matchup though so Bassitt should probably be priced above Thor but he is not. Bassitt also has a better chance at earning the win considering he is facing Joan Adon, who is making only his 2nd career major league start.
Just missed the cut: Justin Verlander
1B/3B Max Muncy $4300
LAD @ COL
Well, well, well, what do we have here? A Coors slate. As the year goes on, I might start to cover other players because both sides of this game are always plug and plays. For anyone new to MLB DFS, a Coors slate is when there is a game taking place at Coors Field, home of the Colorado Rockies. Long story short, the ball flies a lot farther here compared to other stadiums. In addition, it features a large outfield which contributes to more extra-base hits. The players in Coors games usually are priced up. That is not the case as we have Max Muncy at $4300. German Marquez is a good pitcher. However, Coors has such a dramatic impact, you just roster the bats. The Dodgers are implied for 6.5 runs today, the highest on the slate. Muncy is projected to be the clean-up hitter.
Marquez knows he has to keep the ball down at Coors Field. He has a 51.1% groundball rate. Of course, no one is ever safe from the confines of this hitter-friendly ballpark. He only has a 19.6% k rate vs LHBs and allows a .316 wOBA. Muncy has one of the best walk rates at 15.5% against RHPs. He carries a .256 ISO, .356 wOBA, and 38.2% groundball rate vs RHPs. There are simply too many things in Muncy’s favor today. He has the platoon advantage, is projected to hit 4th for the team expected to score the most runs on the slate, and is playing in Colorado. 76 degrees is great for April and the winds will be blowing out to right field at 9mph. Muncy should be $5500+ in this spot. His teammates are too cheap as well but because Muncy has 3B eligibility, he is the pick. 1B is always pretty stacked but Freeman looks fantastic at $4800.
Just missed the cut: Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Eduardo Escobar, Jake Cronenworth, Brendan Rogers, Justin Turner, Luke Voit, Jeff McNeil, James McCann, Gavin Lux, Mike Moustakas, Robinson Cano, CJ Abrams
OF Eddie Rosario $4300
ATL vs CIN
Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, and Cody Bellinger (I know) all deserve to be here. In order to have some variety, I will avoid the Coors game for the outfield position. Coors bats will carry high ownership. This will naturally make all the other players lower owned than they should be. There are some offenses in good spots today aside from the Dodgers and Rockies. The Mets, Braves, and Padres all have 5+ projected runs. A very appealing player is Eddie Rosario. He will be facing righty Vladimir Gutierrez. No offense to Gutierrez but he is awful against LHBs. He has a 5.36 xFIP. Against lefties, he allowed a .356 wOBA, .247 ISO, 14.2% k rate, 42.6% flyball rate, and 46.2% hard-hit rate. He is serviceable against RHBs, but he has some of the most drastic splits a pitcher can have.
Gutierrez uses a fastball, changeup, and curve against lefty bats. Rosario hits the changeup ok but hits the fastball and curve very well, Gutierrez’s two most frequently used pitches against LHBs. Rosario has a .339 wOBA, .266 ISO, and 46% hard-hit rate when facing the fastball. He has a .336 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 42% hard-hit rate against the curve. Atlanta has the second-highest projected run total only behind the LA Dodgers. Rosario should hit leadoff for the Braves and could be looking at 5 at-bats today. Cincinnati will not be contending this year. Rosario should have opportunities to do damage against the bullpen as well. He might be the leadoff hitter, but he has great pop and multi-home run potential. This is a great spot but will be overshadowed by Coors.
Just missed the cut: Mookie Betts, Brandon Nimmo, Charlie Blackmon, Tyler Naquin, Trent Grisham, David Peralta, Alex Dickerson, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar
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