In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Mar 27, 2022; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a spring training game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
SP Max Scherzer $10200
NYM @ WAS
There are only 5 games on the main slate for today. Therefore, our options are limited. Scherzer was originally tabbed as the opening day starter. He dealt with hamstring soreness so he will instead start today. He is going to cost you, but he is the only true ace on the slate. A lot of the starting pitchers on Thursday did not go deep into games. The short spring is really limiting the workloads. This could keep Scherzer under 100 pitches but if there is one guy that is hard to take off the mound, it is Mad Max. Unless that hamstring is really bothering him, he should put up a much-needed score. Washington only put up 1 run on Thursday courtesy of a Juan Soto home run. The Nationals are implied for 4 runs, the 2nd least behind the Reds. Scherzer spent a lot of seasons in Washington. He is going to remind those fans of the ace he is tonight.
Anytime Scherzer takes the mound, he has a good chance at earning the win. On the other side, it will be Josiah Gray, whom the Nationals acquired from the Dodgers when they traded Scherzer. Gray is a young talent but this Mets lineup should be able to give Scherzer some run support. Pete Alonso got hit by a pitch in Thursday’s game. It might be Dom Smith starting today. Scherzer had a 33.2% K rate last season. The one guy that presents a challenge is Juan Soto. Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell have the power but they do strike out a good bit. The rest of this Washington lineup features a lot of below-average bats that have low ISOs and high GB rates. On top of the great matchup, this game will be played in under 60-degree weather. Some of the other games feature close to 90-degree temps and 10+mph winds blowing out.
Just missed the cut: Jose Berrios, Charlie Morton
2B/OF Jeff McNeil $3300
NYM @ WAS
McNeil hit from the 8-hole on Thursday against lefty Patrick Corbin. He will hit higher in the order today against righty Josiah Gray. Gray showed some of that upside last season that has made him a top prospect. He posted a 24.2% K rate, 21.9% against LHBs. One notable split for Gray is the hard-hit % he gave up last year. He allowed 37.1% to RHBs compared to 49.4% hard hit to LHBs. That is a solid strikeout rate for a 24-year-old starter. However, McNeil had a 12.4% K rate last season against RHPs. He will be able to put the ball in play. McNeil could occupy a top-of-the-order spot which would allow his teammates to drive him in or a little bit lower for him to hit with runners in scoring position. At $3300, he is going to be a great value piece as long as he is not hitting in the bottom-third of the order.
Against LHBs, Gray is basically a two-pitch pitcher. He used his fastball 59% of the time and his curveball 32% last season against LHBs. Digging into McNeil’s ability to make contact, he had an 85% contact rate on fastballs from 94-96mph last season. Gray’s fastball averaged 95mph last year. Of the 69 balls put in play, McNeil had a .351 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 41% hard-hit rate. Looking at McNeil’s numbers against the curve, he posted a .387 wOBA and .333 ISO on 48 batted balls in play vs LHPs. McNeil hits Gray’s two most frequently used pitches very well. It was not too long ago that this man was an All-Star. He has dealt with injuries but he is healthy to start this season. These stats are way too good for a former All-Star who is 30 years old and only $3300 today.
Just missed the cut: Ozzie Albies, Aledmys Diaz, Alejandro Kirk, Cavan Biggio, Dominic Smith, Brad Miller, Mike Moustakas, Orlando Arcia, Robinson Cano
OF Lourdes Gurriel $4200
TOR vs TEX
We are going to have to spend up for pitching today with Scherzer. This will make it hard to stack the Blue Jays. Toronto should be a World Series contender this year. They have power up and down the lineup. Gurriel is projected to bat 6th for this stacked team. While his teammates occupy higher spots in the order, they are all priced around 6k. Gurriel gives you exposure to this high-powered offense at a much cheaper price. The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.2 runs which is 2nd behind the Mets but depending on Alonso’s availability, Toronto could have the highest total on the slate by lock. Gurriel is the most appealing bat from the cheaper options from this team. While he does not have the platoon advantage, this matchup is very appealing. Gurriel has reverse splits, although not significant. Jon Gray has also had some reverse splits throughout his career.
Gray posted a 22.2% K rate last year, 24.9% against RHBs. Similar to McNeil, Gurriel does not strike out a lot. Gurriel has a 18.2% K rate vs RHPs. He has some impressive splits including .350 wOBA and .321 BABIP against RHPs. Gray allows a 45.8% hard-hit rate to righties. Going into the pitch data, Gray uses the fastball and slider the most. He uses his slider almost as much as his fastball to RHBs. Gurriel sees the slider well as he posted a .425 wOBA on 115 batted balls in play last season. Looking at the OF options, there really is not a must roster stud. Odorizzi is not a gas can while Soto has to face Scherzer. Then there are the Blue Jays, but they are pricy. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are facing a lefty starter. You can even consider a bottom-of-the-lineup Toronto stack.
Just missed the cut: Trent Grisham, Tyler Naquin, Marcell Ozuna, Kole Calhoun
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